colbyjack

Lindor is a legit talent. I agree with brewerguy71 that I wouldn't take him ahead of Rendon, but he's not far from being the #2 prospect overall. The Nationals reportedly have been on him hard for their #6 pick, and the Royals may be interested at #5. He has some power and intriguing overall offensive potential that could hit 10-15 homers a year, but again, that isn't what I would label a power-hitting shortstop. However, I am still surprised by how many people have Dylan Bundy as low as they do. I think I mentioned before that some scouts think he's the best prep pitching prospect since Josh Beckett, which is saying a lot. That's better than guys like Taillon and Porcello who had pretty lofty scouting profiles at the same point in their careers. The D-Backs brass has been scouting him pretty hard, and they may have a tough choice between Bundy and Hultzen at #3 (assuming one of them isn't taken 1 or 2). I would not be surprised if the Pirates took a player considered somewhat of a surprise pick (such as Bundy or possibly even Bubba Starling), as Rendon and Cole aren't universally viewed as the slam dunks many think they are. Bundy recently hit 100 mph, and has been consistently throwing 94-96 all spring with great command and offspeed stuff. And it's not so much that Gray is falling, but there are just so many guys putting themselves in the conversation for the top 10 overall picks. I found out last night that Archie Bradley is indeed asking for more than what Zach Lee got last year ($5.25 million). I think you're going to see a lot of teams pass on him because of that. I could see a team that doesn't have a first-round pick (such as the Detroit Tigers, and possibly the White Sox in the sandwich round) take him if he slides out of the first round altogether and sign him for big money similar to what the Tigers did with Nick Castellanos a year ago. EDIT: I should have mentioned Trevor Bauer as well above, as he is generating more and more interest among teams picking in the top 3-5 overall picks. For every doubter there is someone that remembers not to look past smaller guys with big stuff such as Lincecum and even Mike Leake.

It's not that Heyman's rankings are that out of whack, but he's not exactly the guy you go to for draft coverage. He is using a lot of scout-based quotes, but I wouldn't exactly characterize Lindor as a "power-hitting shortstop," and Jed Bradley's omission from the top 10 is pretty glaring.

Keep an eye on PG's draft page later this afternoon for Rawnsley's second mock draft. I think people would be pretty happy if draft day shook out the way he has it going... And for the record, he got the Ben Sheets comparison from me http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

I obviously think CF is a much bigger organizational need than some have made it out to be. The team has only had one regular CF that was procured entirely from within the system since Robin Yount, and that was Daryl Hamilton, who didn't even play a full season, in 1995. I like both Schafer and Komatsu, but I'm not as confident as you are to think either one will be the team's CF of the future. I hope so, I just don't think so. Thanks to Toby for tweeting about the launch of Perfect Game's draft coverage. If you haven't checked it out, be sure you do so, as there will be regular features up on the site every day leading up to the draft, and most of it will be available for free. http://www.perfectgame.org/ Today you can join the 2pm chat with PG scouting director David Rawsnley and college baseball guru Kendall Rogers: http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=5555

I'm not so sure anyone takes Purke in the first round given his situation. He has been shut down with an ailing shoulder. The prognosis has yet to be determined, but for a guy that was asking for $6 million two years coming out of high school, who is going to take that risk? His velocity has been down this year, and there already were concerns about his delivery. I love his approach and the way he pitches, but there are enough red flags for every team in baseball to pass on him, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him return for his junior year (he's draft-eligible this year as a sophomore).

Thanks CheezWiz. I have stepped down as a contributor in the P50, and overall I have been reducing my involvement here at Brewerfan. I have not been providing specific Brewerfan.net draft coverage since I began 5 Tool Talk over two years ago, and I will not be involved with the draft-day coverage as I have been in the past. I will continue to contribute as a fan, like everyone else here. As I believe I noted above, I am a Brewers fan, first and foremost.

Colby, who would be your preferred targets for CF or SS? Assuming Lindor is gone by the time the Brewers pick, is Bradley Jr. the only mid-first round option at either position or is there someone else you'd consider? Do you think he'd be safe to take with the unprotected pick at 15 despite Boras advising? That would allow the Brewers to use the 12th pick on a tougher sign such as one of the top high school arms. At shortstop do you like one of Gaines/Lopes/Michael/Story if available in round 2 or 3? Sorry I missed this before. SS and CF are tricky at #12 and #15 since you're not going to get Lindor, Bradley Jr. is injured (and advised by Boras), and Springer may be best long-term in RF. Javier Baez has been creating more and more noise this spring to put himself as a legitimate player to be drafted in this range, but I'm not so sure he's a SS. Gaines and Story may not make it to the team's 2nd round pick, and I'm not sure if Lopes can stick at SS. The Brewers are really, really high on Logan Schafer. Great arm, above-average speed, hits lefty, and put up an .815 OPS at pitcher-friendly Brevard in 2009. He's your CF of the future. The Brewers were pretty high on Darren Ford at one point in time as well. Lorenzo Cain was the most recent prospect to be thought of as the team's CF of the future, and how can you forget about Dave Krynzel? Throw Charlie Fermaint and Stephen Chapman into that discussion, and even if you are the most obscure Lee Haydel fans like SessileFielder and myself, do you really believe he's going to hit enough to be a solid everyday player? I like Schafer, but he has missed significant time the last two years due to injury. Even if you have any notion of drafting for need, how can you take solace in him, or Gindl, or Komatsu, Ke. Davis (none of whom are true CFs IMO). You could make the argument that the Brewers have been less successful developing an everyday CF in recent years than they have catchers. I don't disagree with CF, just not in the first round. Schafer was a 3rd round pick, as was Grady Sizemore. I think you can get good OFs in rounds 3-5. You could find an example for any player in any round to support a similar argument for a different position. As for BA's mock draft, I'm surprised by how slow they are to recognize how good Dylan Bundy has been this spring. He's getting comps to Josh Beckett as one of the best prep pitchers ever. If he makes it to #11, I will seriously be surprised (and it's hard to surprise me when it comes to the draft). That said, getting both Springer, one of the most athletic and toolsy players in this draft, and Swihart, one of the best hitters, would be pretty exciting, even if you're convinced at least one of the picks should be spent on a pitcher. It's quite possible that the team's first two picks will immediately become the system's #1 and #2 prospects.

When it comes down to need, why not take an OF, especially a centerfielder? The Brewers haven't had a long-term solution in CF in a long time. We've had a lot of contenders to take that role, but no one has panned out. Lorenzo Cain was the latest to assume the role of our seemingly CF of the future, and I suppose Mr. Plush has endeared him to enough fans to lead many to believe he could be that player (along with those still holding onto Gomez putting it all together). There are still options in the minors, but there isn't that one can't-miss guy at the position that leads me to believe the position can't be significantly upgraded. A similar conversation could be had at shortstop, although there have been more recent options there between Hardy and Escobar. That said, I agree 100% that you can never have too much pitching, but at least recently the Brewers were able to trade some key pieces, mostly hitters, for impact pitching. And that includes what they gave up for Sabathia 2+ years ago. And if you're good at something, like identifying and developing impact bats, don't get away from it.

http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/nightbees.jpg nightbee! That monicker actually came to life in Georgia, off of the very same exit off of highway 75 that the new Perfect Game complex is expected to be completed 2 years from now. Coincidence? Thanks for the kind words.

I wanted to let everyone know that I am very proud to announce that I will be going to work for Perfect Game USA on a full-time basis. You may know that I have been working for them on a freelance basis for the past 6+ years. They're bringing me on as their Managing Editor, as I will be responsible for pulling all of the pieces together to properly display all of the original content on our website. If you haven't noticed, PG brought on Kendall Rogers earlier this year to handle all of their college coverage (and a lot more), and have two writers devoted to the high school game (Ben Collman and Todd Gold, who are currently on a pretty cool high school road trip). Baseball America founder Allan Simpson and David Rawnsley, who has worked in every single facet of baseball operations, from scouting to serving as an agent, remain in place, as does feature writer Jeff Dahn (who has been writing some really good draft-related pieces in recent weeks). I won't be contributing anything to 5 Tool Talk anymore, although I don't want that site to simply die. I need to think more about that. Thanks to everyone for following me here, there and at Perfect Game, and I hope you continue to do so with my new position. I don't want to carry on too much and get sappy, as it's not like I'm losing my internet connection. I'll still be checking in here, as I'm a Brewers fan first and foremost. I'm just living the dream now http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

I agree with ListachRides' assessment of Purke. I really like the way he pitches, but I think his pricetag would scare some teams, including the Brewers, away. Mahtook certainly has risen past my preseason ranking of #54, but I wouldn't be a huge fan of taking him. I'm really skeptical of his swing, and I've had a couple of chances to see it this year. He's pitchable despite the gaudy numbers, although he is an impressive overall athletic talent.

Don't jinx the weather like you do no hitters Mass http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif. So far you're safe, yesterday it said 52 and rainy. Today it's 55 and sunny. So, by my calculations it will be in the mid-70s and clear by the 31st. I will be there, regardless of the conditions. Four of us are making the road trip to celebrate my brother's 40th birthday. We're turning around and coming home the very next day, so a rainout will be unacceptable. We too were hoping for Greinke, but still happy to see Gallardo.

Thanks ListachRides, I appreciate your support (and I've always loved the handle). I've been told that Baez is looking pretty good at shortstop this spring and is making some rather athletic plays. He didn't play there last year, and is doing so this year since the team's starter is injured (or something else happened). Baez usually plays third base, and a lot of people, myself included, just kind of assumed he couldn't play short. Whoever was playing SS ahead of him must have been pretty good there. And if he doesn't play SS, he could play just about anywhere else he wants, including behind the plate, which has been tossed around (but would be a waste IMO). I DVR'd last night's South Carolina game and just got done watching it. I was reminded by just how smooth Bradley is in CF, taking perfect routes and angles to fly balls. His head doesn't bob and he keeps his eye on the ball as he follows it. He didn't have a chance to show off his arm, but I've seen it before, and it's another plus tool. He does have a propensity to swing for the fences as I mentioned before, and while SC was playing the College of Charleston (in a butt-kicking), Bradley put a nice swing on an outside fastball going with it the other way for a 3-run home run in the 2nd inning. It was a good sign of his bat speed as well as the strength in his hands and forearms. He has a patient approach, which leads to BBs and Ks alike, and he isn't afraid to hit with 2 strikes. I like him quite a bit, and as noted above, I think he's one of the most polished and complete draft-eligible prospects out there.

McCann might slip to the 2nd round, I would doubt the 3rd. Catchers are frequently drafted higher than expected given the demand for them. Who doesn't think Bradley can play CF? And who doesn't think he has speed? He may not steal a ton of bases, and I don't like that he thinks he's a power hitter at times, but he is one of the more polished players available for this year's draft. Bell would be a good pick for either of their first-round picks, but I don't see it happening given the Boras connection. I haven't heard how Bell has been faring this spring, but he was stellar to close out 2010, and is one player that entered the year with relatively quiet draft pub. He and Derek Fisher are among the best high school positional prospects along with Lindor, Baez (another player on the rise), Swihart and Starling. Starling only falls due to money, Lindor is looking like a top 10 pick, and people may be surprised by how early Baez goes.

Coincidentally enough, Nimmo was profiled in my most recent Dandy Dozen that went live earlier this evening: http://www.5tooltalk.com/...-dandydozen-3-22-11.html

BA released their top 100 prospect list today. Before I add a minor complaint, I do want to offer a tip of the cap to Baseball America for their hard work, as prospect ranking season is always exciting, and I recognize how much work goes into compiling all of their lists. http://www.baseballameric...spects/2011/2611328.html My complaint comes in the form of Jake Odorizzi, ranked as the #69 prospect. That alone isn't my complaint, but if you have read this whole thread you will know that when Odorizzi was still a member of the Brewers, he was thought to be a fringe top 100 prospect. Being ranked 69th is obviously far from being a fringe top 100 prospect. I recognize that the Greinke trade had a lot to do with that, but a lot of it boils down to perception. All it takes is one person to rally behind a prospect for that player to gain steam in such rankings. Lawrie is #40. No Jeffress, no other Brewers farmhands, past or present, made the list.

Vanderbilt and Florida are loaded. In addition to Armstrong and Gray Vandy has third baseman (who is playing shortstop this spring) Jason Esposito who projects to go in the first round. Navery Moore is their closer with early round potential. Grayson Garvin is another one of their weekend starters, a tall, lanky lefty that pitches in the 86-89 range. They also have some promising underclassmen such as soph LHP Sam Sellman and fresh LHP Kevin Ziomek. Almost every player on Florida's team is worth watching, as they have consistently had some of the better recruiting classes in recent years. Their sophomore class (LHP/DH Brian Johnson, 1B Austin Maddox, SS Nolan Fontana) and freshman classes (RHP Karsten Whitson, 3B Zach Powers, LHP Daniel Gibson) are loaded with prominent pro talent. Alabama's best players are LHP Adam Morgan and OF Taylor Dugas. Auburn's best players are OF Creede Simpson, 1B Kevin Patterson and SS/2B Zach Alvord. 2010 Brewers draftee RHP Andrew Morris trasnferred from a juco last year and is one of their better pitchers.

Gray is going to continue to have skeptics due to his size. I love his stuff, as he has arguably one of the best 1-2 punches in the game, as he's consistently 90-94 with a hammer curveball, and can dial it up to 96-97 in the early innings. I have compared Gray to Ben Sheets in the past, as Gray for the most part is a 2-pitch pitcher. Bauer touched 95 this past weekend, and has a similar big bender. Both are incredible competitors, and Gray is a good athlete overall who can swing the bat a little too. Jim Callis revealed yesterday that Esposito is another player that will be advised by Boras. Check out his AskBA segment for all of the players he's aware of at this point in time: http://www.baseballameric...ask-ba/2011/2611319.html Related to this subject, I usually get asked which players the Boras Corp. will be advising in the draft. Known Boras advisees include Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon (No. 1 on the Top 50), UCLA righthander Gerrit Cole (No. 2), South Carolina outfielder Jackie Bradley (No. 7), Starling, Searcy (Ark.) High righty Dillon Howard (No. 20), Jesuit College Prep (Dallas) outfielder Josh Bell (No. 21), Vanderbilt shortstop Jason Esposito (No. 26), Miami Dade outfielder Brian Goodwin (No. 28), Kentucky righty Alex Meyer (No. 34), Hedges, Georgia outfielder Zach Cone (No. 50), Stanford lefty Brett Mooneyham, Southern California first baseman Ricky Oropesa, Arizona State first baseman Zach Wilson and Cal State Fullerton righty Noe Ramirez. That's a pretty long list of prospects, and since this year's draft likely will be the last without some kind of revised slotting system, these players undoubtedly are going to be asking for a lot of money. The draft overall is so deep, some players are going to have to fall regardless of their affiliation, which is why I don't think it would be a big surprise that Owens is at the tail end of the first round.

I have a report on Fisher up at 5 Tool Talk under the Dandy Dozen archives if you're interested in learning more about him. And no, I don't think Esposito would be a reach, and think he could be a player the Brewers legitimately target there. Not only does he have a good bat, but he also runs and plays defense well.

I revised my mock draft last Friday since the draft order has been finalized. A pair of prep players, LHP Daniel Norris and OF Derek Fisher were the picks at #12 and #15. http://www.5tooltalk.com/2011-mockdraft-2-11-11.html

Every pitcher is different. Aaron Fitt of Baseball America wrote an awesome story on Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer of UCLA as part of his college preview stuff that chronicles the differences between the two, mostly the differences between Bauer (somewhat of a Lincecum clone) and everyone else (the story is free for all to read): http://www.baseballameric...review/2011/2611225.html I know a lot of coaches will shy away from long-tossing, but some individuals, like Rogers, swear by it. TheCrew07 made a nice analogy to football and how throwing at longer distances increases your arm strength, and to add to jericho's point, throwing harder isn't necessarily about exerting more energy. A lot of times when a pitcher "reaches back for a little more," that doesn't just mean they hare trying to throw the ball harder the way people like most of us understand it, but a lot of times it may have more to do with one's mechanics. A pitcher can flick his wrist or alter his arm angle slightly to achieve greater velocity at times, and some days they're able to accomplish this and some days they aren't. So for Rogers playing long toss to achieve greater arm strength, it's not like he's putting every single ounce of effort into his throws to get the ball from left field to right. If you saw Rogers doing his pre-game warmup prior to his first big-league start last year you would have saw him start throwing at 50-60 feet or so, and slowly but surely backing up to the point where he was 200-300 feet away. During this game in particular he was standing on the third base line, roughly halfway between third base and the left field foul pole, throwing to the catcher who was standing roughly in straight away centerfield. To the casual observer, it looked as though he was putting as much effort into his throws at that distance as the ones he was throwing from 50-60 feet away. As an outfielder in high school that is how we built our arm strength, by throwing for extended periods at greater distances. Again, to TheCrew07's point, I was able to throw a lot farther with a lot more velocity and carry at the end of one season than I could at the beginning, and that also carried over from one year to the next. But a lot of coaches will direct people towards the strength and conditioning route. Adding strength through weight training and flexibility than by actually throwing the ball. The same is true for just about any athlete in any sport. If I remember correctly, Rogers was thought to have thrown across his body, in which his overall momentum would carry him more towards the first base bag (third base for lefties) as opposed to directly towards the plate. That counter momentum (ball traveling one way, body another), at least as I understand it, can lead to arm injuries as it did with Kyle Peterson. There are some pitchers who throw across their body or have other so-called mechanical flaws that have relatively healthy and long careers, and it goes back to a debate about whether a pitcher had obvious flaws (like those that said Stephen Strasburg was an injury waiting to happen) or if they are quite simply blessed physically in a way, whatever way that may be, that they aren't as susceptible to injury. That reminds me of an argument you'll see from time to time about people questioning why young pitchers are babied so much with pitch counts these days. They often point to Tom Seaver who was throwing 200+ innings at the age of 20 or so and continued to do so for a very long time. I would argue that was part of the reason he was a Hall of Famer, and it really wasn't that he was handled any differently early in his career. For every Tom Seaver reference you could counter with a Fernando Valenzuela or Doc Gooden one, pointing to a young pitcher who wasn't babied early in their careers only to have their careers significantly derailed before they turned 30 years old. The same goes for Mark Prior, who was believed to have the smoothest mechanics out there, therefore making him a relative safe bet to avoid significant injuries. That didn't work out that well, although that was also tied into the workload conversation, since many believe Dusty Baker burned out his arm too quickly early in his career. And you'll hear other terms like a stab in the back of his delivery, that a pitchers head snaps (pointing to effort) or that he wraps his hand, or even overall terms used to describe a pitcher's delivery, such as a drop-and-drive pitcher. Pitching coaches will try to work with pitchers to correct these problems, or at least get them to the point where they are more workable on a consistent basis. My understanding is that Rogers went back to his old delivery, and similar to young prodigal hitters being left alone because whatever they do seems to work for them, sometimes you have to step back, adding valuable points where and when needed, and let an athlete work the way that is most comfortable to them. As long as everything else (release point, tempo, rhythm, etc.) is consistent.

Felipe Lopez is expected to sign a minor league deal with the Rays, meaning the final draft order has been determined. http://www.5tooltalk.com/...der-finaldraftorder.html

I meant to add above that if I were convinced that Carlos Gonzalez could stick in CF, he would be on my short list as well. Although similar to Tulo, and any player for that matter that has played for the Rockies, his home/road splits are a little concerning as well.

Good topic danzig. I already replied at LL with Joe Thomas for the Packers. Tough choice between Tulo, Hernandez and Jason Heyward, but impact pitching is more difficult to acquire/develop, so I'll go with Hernandez. Wade for the Bucks. Aside from the local connection, I think he would be a perfect fit for the team as it's currently assembled.

Some of the recent discussion and prospect rankings fueled me to write the story as linked below. As I note at the top of the story, I don't usually write about the Brewers in my work at Perfect Game, but I really do think their recent success developing players, as well as their recent acquisitions using some of those players, warrants significant attention. Plus, I don't think the farm is in as bad of shape as many are making it out to be. Brewers Deal from Strength