TheCrew07

Chris just announced that Krestalude is now a stand alone starter and will be starting on Tuesday, Odorizzi will go on Wednesday with Nieves backing him up, Arnett on Thursday, and Lasker will likely start again on Friday with Heckathorn in relief. Chris didn't say that anything was wrong with Heckathorn, it appears they are just trying to maximize the amount of quality innings being pitched.

Yea I do because Lee Tunnell earned quite a bit of respect from me last season, and his Odorizzi vs Arnett comments stuck with me. It's not really about age for me, it's about where a pitcher is in his progression. Arnett didn't have an even workload throughout his college career and of the 3 college pitchers he's certainly more advanced than Howell, but Howell hardly has pitched at all in his career. The young men we drafted out of high school have been in the system longer and progressed at a cautious pace building into full season ball. Arnett exploded onto to the scene jumping from 35, to 66, to 142 IP, based on comments from those in the know and his performance thus far as a professional I'm pretty comfortable with the idea that he's still pretty raw as a pitcher. For comparison sake Heckathorn went 68, 60, and 109 IP during his 3 college seasons, and I don't remember Kyle getting regularly pushed past 100 pitches like Arnett was. The Brewers drafted upside out of college, not polish, both guys at the top need a 3rd pitch/better control and Howell has the arm but hasn't pitched enough yet. So while those guys are older than your Odorizzis, Buccis, and Krestaludes, I'm not sold on the idea that they've progressed enough to actually be better pitchers, even though the college guys have better velocity all the way around. Yes I know that one of the prospect gurus picked Bucci as his "most disappointing for 2010", but that opinion doesn't mean much to me.

Only if it ultimately hurts his confidence. Heckathorn threw many more innings than Arnett in college, he's probably the more advanced pitcher of those 2 at this time. I just think the organization was too aggressive with Arnett, I think it's pretty obvious they are trying to push him, he's the only draftee from last season not in a piggy back while pitchers that have been in the system longer like Odorizzi are piggy backing. As long as Arnett's velocity is still there I'm not overly concerned, I keep going back to Tunnell's comments about Arnett... he's just not very polished and I think the results bear that out. Assuming good health and continued confidence Arnett should get better as the season progresses. With Howell's limited experience as a pitcher I'm not sure that WI was the best fit for him either. Actually while I'm thinking about the pitching in WI I was pretty sure the ship had sailed on Nieves as a starting pitcher as well, I'm still shocked he's in the rotation. I'm curious if Adams' issues have anything to do with Nieves, he should be back fairly soon as a starting pitcher, Jeffress won't be back until sometime in May.

Geez, 3 errors so far this inning for the T-Rats, and George just let a ball get under his glove as I type this... ruled an E6, so that's 4 errors in only 3 batters. I just don't think that Arnett is anywhere near as advanced as many prospect sites and posters on bf.net think he is. The T-Rats are down 7-1 now as Garfield lets a ball get through him. I think I'm done with baseball for the day.

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers Chris interviews starting pitchersJake Odorizzi and Damon Krestalude regarding the near no hitter the previous night.

This team isn't nearly as bad as they've played over the last week. However I do hope that maybe some of the concepts that a small core of us having been arguing against are becoming more clear, or perhaps easier to understand. Things like signing relievers to big money contracts, signing players in their mid 30s or older, and generally why trying to build a rotation through Free Agency doesn't work. If the players that are signed or acquired are averagish and aging, then that's all the team can be... those players are not going to experience an upswing in their careers, it fact it's much more plausible that their production will decline over the course of the contract. How many teams in baseball history have out performed their rotation significantly? While it could happen this year, it seems highly unlikely to me that players so far past their prime will perform in a best case scenario. 1 of those players in the rotation or bullpen might, but to get all 4 or 5, the odds just aren't high. I've said it many times,but I want to say it again, I think Melvin did a fantastic job helping to turn around what had been a putrid franchise. I just do not believe that he can continue to operate like he has and get this team reach that next level. I thought this team was slightly above average, 82-83 wins... but it could easily end up below .500 as well, in which case this would have been consecutive years that the team spent near 90 mil to finish under .500... 5 years ago who would have guessed that Melvin would have ever had that much money to spend? Cameron 8.4 WAR, 15 Million Sabathia 7.5 WAR, 6 Million Hall .7 WAR, 24 Million Riske -.6 WAR, 13 Million Suppan 1.5 WAR, 44 Million (includes the buyout for 2011) Gagne -1.1 WAR, 10 Million Hoffman 1.5 WAR, 6 Million (only including 2009) Looper -.9 WAR, 5.5 Million (includes the buyout for 2010) Kendell 2.7 WAR, 9.25 Million (I was shocked Kendell had positive WAR, the positional adjustment saved him as he had negative value at the plate) The totals for all FA acquisitions. 12.2 total WAR for $132.75 Million so Melvin paid $10.88 Million per Win. The totals for FA acquisitions without Cameron whom many were willing to part with. 3.8.1 total WAR for $117.75 Million so Melvin paid $30.97 Million per Win The totals for all players acquired 19.7 WAR for $129.5 Million which is Melvin's best $7.03 Million per Win. The league average has never been as high as 7.03 mil per win, it was over 5 at it's peak and this year I believe I read it was something like 3.86? It should be pretty clear that Melvin has done horribly overall in Free Agency. Who would have guessed that outside of Cameron, Kendell was the best FA signing that Melvin had made? I've never tried to take away Sabathia's contribution and/or how much that playoff appearance meant to many Brewers fans, including the overwhelming majority of fans on this site. My point has always been that acquiring Sabathia cost the Brewers an unquantifiable number of future wins, and led to spending more money for very little return trying to plug the gaping hole left in the rotation when Sheets and Sabathia left. From where I'm sitting the best way to build a rotation is to aggressively trade for young pitching with little or no MLB experience. TB did exactly that and vaulted to the top of the toughest division in baseball, which is why I've referenced that organization so often. We just couldn't sit on all our hitters and then settle for Bush type high floor/low ceiling starting pitchers or relievers when we did make a trade. Simply put there are so few opportunities to acquire meaningful talent that Melvin couldn't afford to settle for quantity MLB piece deals once Milwaukee turned the corner towards respectability. In addition Melvin certainly hasn't gone out of his way to acquire significant talent for the rotation, the one recent move he made was only ever going to be a temporary solution, and it simply hasn't been enough. I don't believe my opinions on Melvin's tenure have brought unwarranted or undeserved criticism. On the contrary I know how much time and research I've put in to form what I believe are extremely well thought out and deep analysis of what's he done to this point, and what the team needs to do to be able to compete with the big boys year in and year out. I'm not, nor have I ever been interested in a window that would close with Fielder/Weeks departure from the team. Even if this was to be the 1 window, then why wouldn't Doug work harder to acquire better starting pitching? Is there even an organizational plan or philosophy regarding team building? Or is he just flying by the seat of his pants trying to max out the team potential year to year?

don't forget to mention he has 8K through 5, though he might be done now. Unfortunately Rogers continues to walk hitters,4BB, 4K so far with 3R and 1 ER, a Lawrie error extending the inning on him. Hopefully he adjusts as the season progresses and starts to locate better. edit. Back to Odorizzi, 77 pitches, 50 for strikes... that's what I'm talking about young man!

I was hoping that maybe Peterson was tweaking something with Parra's delivery and they were working in the bullpen on a daily basis. Unfortunately from what Drew just said Macha just hasn't found opportunities to use Parra. At least Yo doesn't get ridden to 120 pitches and Parra will get some work in.

What makes you think that Macha will pull him with less than 110 pitches?

Gennett back in the lineup tonight, apparently the injury was nothing.

I will be using a different format going forward, hopefully the thread will load better without embedded audio in each post. Huntsville Stars Pre Game Audio Aaron interviews Top Prospect Jonathan Lucroy. They discuss repeating AA, the jump from A+ to AA, and pitcher Mark Rogers

In most cases yes it is.

He turned around to the umpire and did the high school "draw a line in the sand" where he thought ball was actually located. Chris talked about it at length the other night and Matt Erickson mentioned it yesterday in the pre game audio. edit. Part of me is amused by Scooter's moxie, even though classless displays generally irritate me.

ohh my goodness, I believe Chris just said the T-Rats are down 8-0. edit. You know, until they fix the box scores I'd be better off just focusing on 1 audio choice instead of bouncing around listening to bits and pieces of them all.

Periard started the game with 5 straight balls... woot there's a strike finally. edit. A sharp ball hit at Green, he's goes to second and Lawrie makes a nice turn to complete the DP and erase the lead off walk for Periard.

I was at a meeting last night and I'm checking the link report again this evening as I listen to the various pre games for audio interviews. I just noticed that yesterday was the first game all season the Stars didn't have an error!

I'm not upset about Stetter getting optioned to Nashville, 3 lefties in the pen was excessive. However this is upsetting me greatly. edit. fixed link sorry.

What's the deal with Parra Ken?

I wonder if Parra will actually get to pitch today, regardless how Suppan fares in the bottom of the 5th.

Seriously? Baseball America would be a fantastic resource. I get that many people around here would rather Melvin do whatever he can to acquire MLB pieces dumping prospects... that's fine. However, to suggest that any organization's top prospects aren't better value than a draft pick is an unsupportable opinion. I can make any random claim I want then and not back it up with anything. There's so much that goes into player evaluation that is misrepresented or misinterpreted by posters on the MLB forum here that it's not even worth getting into. If you're interested in truly educating yourself in prospect evaluation Baseball America, John Sickels Minor League Ball, and our very own colbyjack's 5 Tool Talk are excellent resources to get one started. I get it, believe me, I get that prospects haven't proven anything, etc... those arguments haven't changed since I started reading this site in 2003. Until you support your opinion with more than just a throw away sentence, I find it difficult to take your argument seriously. Unfortunately it seems to me that people latch on to an opinion without considering the entire picture.... someone posts that there's no way the Brewers can get equal value for Fielder so we shouldn't trade him when that's not really even a legit argument from the start. However people will agree because they don't want to lose an impact bat like Fielder's from lineup, but that entire argument is superficial in nature. The argument is actually can you match or excede Fielder's WAR plus the value of 2 unknown draft picks by trading Fielder for prospects. We've already been down this road in the Hardy discussions. this is nothing new. If you're out of the playoffs with or without Fielder and he's going to walk away in 1 year, then what is the best possible return you can get for the player? I understand that many around here want to resign Fielder, that's fine. The question being asked here is that if Fielder will not resign, or if he's willing to sign for a reasonable amount. If he's not willing to sign and the team isn't playoff bound with or without Fielder, then what is the possible return? Is it draft picks or is prospects that have already proven already successful in the minor leagues. Which route has the most the value long term for the Brewers? Shouldn't we actually be considering all possible outcomes instead of hoping for the best possible outcome? As far as who... well lets just take Baltimore whom I've brought up before as an example; how about one of Matusz, Britton. or Arrieta, with another projectable A ball arm in Hobgood, and a bat like Bell or Snyder? There's plenty of scouting information available on all of those players, and it took me all of 20 minutes to do some research on the team last season, I'm certainly not spending all day looking at players like Melvin and his staff. I'd be willing to take one of the first 3 pitchers I mentioned and just Bell, moving him over to 1B other than 2 draft picks along with another losing season. The whole concept of value hinges almost entirely on if the Brewers are legit contenders for a playoff spot with Fielder. If the answer is no then what is the point in keeping Prince around? I don't see how it's reasonable to assume that Brewers will be able to resign him, or even make long term plans for the future based on the hope that he might sign. They should know by now where Prince stands on an extension and how realistic the chance is that they can resign him. It's extremely insulting to make an argument based on no research and just a gut feeling about a current player on the roster. The Brewers haven't exactly hit home runs with all of the extra draft picks they've gotten so far, in fact only a couple of the extra picks are performing well at this point in time and none of them above A ball. I brought up Dykstra because he may never even see AA for the Brewers and he was a comp pick, the vast majority of the prospects I listed above from Baltimore have had success at AA or higher. I'll take a player who's passed the first litmus test at AA over a draft pick that may never even make it that far every single time. Yea the pick could be a hall of fame player, but if I'm going to lose an elite hitter of Prince's caliber, I'm going to want measurable or tangible value back in return which is only a step away from MLB. Also, Fielder was a top 10 pick in the draft and the top 15 picks are protected so there's no way we can even get equal value out of the first draft pick. In fact the chances of picking up a player who would ultimately have close to equal WAR as Fielder is extremely remote, even were picking in the exact same spot. Finally, there's no guarantee that we'd even have a pick before the supplemental round after letting a #7 overall pick walk. How can you possibly claim that 2 draft picks would have equal value to 2 players that could put up positive WAR in MLB starting tomorrow? Have people learned nothing from the Hardy/Escobar fiasco?

Do the Stars have a limited audio contract? Once again Tom Sullivan is on WKTI and the only way to get the AA audio is off of milb.com.

Frederickson and Dykstra are waving hello... If proven prospects are an unknown commodity then what are draft picks? You can't even adequately define their value... what if we end up with a team's second round pick again like the Sabathia deal? If I have a choice between top prospects and draft picks, the choice is prospects every single time. If the pitching doesn't improve, Prince's 5 wins don't mean anything, especially in a walk year.

Chris interviews hitting coach Matt Erickson.? They discuss the young team then Romero and Gennett specifically. T-Rats 4-14-2010 sound bitehttp://www.entertonement.com/widgets/img/clip/mhjhgrpzzj/1/1_218984c0_481e_11df_96a4_0019b9e56dac/blank.gif

I'm glad we have you here to remind us all what good or true fans will say and don't say. Taking issues with decisions that management makes or doesn't make is a very healthy process, not just for fans on a message board, but in the real business world as well. I think your opinion isn't very well thought out on this issue at all. I'll leave it to someone much smarter than I am to make the case.: I think the same applies to a forum like this, there should be tolerance and consideration of alternative opinions that question management and "appropriate dissent" allowed. When people get immature, combative, or vindictive in their rants, then something needs to be done. I missed the posts that were hidden so I didn't see what was written, but I have no problem with people questioning Macha or the way the team was patched for this season, I'd be a hypocrite if I did, somehow I've ended up at the front of the line when it comes to questioning Melvin's player moves. Trust me when I say that was never my intention, I was a Melvin fan boy at one time, he did no wrong... it wasn't until I started evaluating the state of the pitching within the organization and started to look deeper into his history that my opinion started to turn, and I've become progressively more frustrated with him over time. Yes it's still very early, you aren't seeing any of those types of posts out of me yet, but if we get into July with the same poor managing and poor performances I'll probably let an "I told so" type post or 6 go because I've been passionately arguing against many of the principles behind the way the team has been built going for going on 2 seasons. It's not revisionist or reactionary to question these moves, especially for those that have been very consistent in their arguments, whatever side of the fence they fall on. The only problem I have is with the people that have defended and championed every move Melvin has made, then piss and moan about the pitching or the results on the field. I would expect posters to be consistent in their opinions.

That was the hit where Heckathorn missed the pick off play.