TheCrew07

Ohh I have a ton of guys both pitchers and hitters... I like Jack Flaherty who could be either a pitcher or position player, Ti'quan Forbes who is a tweener SS right now, Marcus Wilson is a bit intriguing as a boom or bust OF, as is Michael Gettys, Luis Ortiz is a RHP legit upside and already has a plus pitch, Foster Griffin is a LHP and would be a dream pick if he fell that far by some random act of god... just off the top of my head. There are some very interesting college players as well. Sorry for the slow response, listening to the T-Rats, dropping in on the Brewers, and doing draft stuff at the same time.

... and PG needs more bandwidth, I wanted to look at the insider top 50 list... *pouts*.

Wow the Pirates really surprised me there with Tucker. The way things are looking all of the HS bats I was interested in will be there at #41, don't want to get my hopes up though.

I know, but just because a guy is thought to move through a farm system quickly doesn't mean that he'll be a farm-system savior. Ahh my bad, I get what you are saying now, sorry.

Newcomb is not Jungmann... I hated the Jungmann pick but I wanted to draft Newcomb.

I was doing Medeiros homework but I just noticed Beede went to the Giants, that's probably the best possible location for him given their penchant for developing pitchers. If they can fix his control... well there might be quite a few teams that regret passing on him but since the Brewers haven't had success with that type of pitcher I'd be okay with passing regardless.

I'll be honest, the first thing I thought of when someone on MLB network said he hit 97 in his workout was "yea so did Frederickson", for me personally, that was probably the worst thing that could have been said. I mentioned this about Tyler Alexander in the Link Reports earlier this year, I generally don't like pitchers with a low arm slot which is why I was pretty dismissive about Kodi. By default I'm very skeptical of those guys long-term so they need to win me over, not many locate well enough to be starters. I don't hate the pick but I don't love it either, I'm cautiously optimistic because of his athleticism. Hopefully he signs quickly and starts with AZ from the get go so we can see what he has.

That's not really the point, he might have been there at #41... I don't have problem with the Brewers taking who they thought was the best talent, the problem I have is that he blew them away in the workout. When was the last time one of the players who wow'd in their workout with the Brewers actually was that good? There's actually a rather long list of failures there... I'm cautiously optimistic at this about the pick, I wanted a lefty, I got a lefty even though he wasn't one of my guys.

Well I got a lefty... on to #41.

That would make sense.

Not surprised Hoffman gone, I'm cool with Conforto going as well, then all we need Beede to go and I can feel good about the Brewers' pick.

It's hard for me to put any stock into those last minute "this guy is falling because of X"... I think Freeland is quicker to the big leagues than Nola and he has plus stuff.

Bastards!

If the Rockies pass on Freeland I might get one of my guys.

I've wanted Freeland, Newcomb, or Holmes for a long time, Schwarber was the only college bat I was interested in. Alex Jackson won't make it to the Brewers pick but he's another very interesting HS bat.

With Rodon gone the Cubs just might draft another position player.

The first 3 picks went exactly as expected.

You made a purely statistical argument ignoring age, stuff, and track record. The Pirates shouldn't view Liriano as any kind of long-term solution and likely don't, he was meant to be a stop gap to Cole, Taillon, Glasnow, etc. He's there because they don't have other options. Shelby Miller is much younger than Estrada, he's got top of the rotation stuff, and is in just his full second season. He also also has issues, but he's not someone you just give up on either, he's guy you keep at the back of your rotation like the Reds did with Bailey until he figures it out. Gio Gonzalez never had much stuff, his best pitch is his CB, last I remember as prospect he topped out around 93 which put him working at 90-91, though he's a lefty so it plays up some. He appeared to peak in 2012, he's not someone I would count on long-term either. Cole Hamels is 30, has a ton of mileage on his arm, and I'd be looking to move on from him just like I would any player in their early 30s, however he's pretty much the same guy he's always been statistically. Estrada doesn't match up well stuff wise with any of those players except Gonzalez who's logged 981 innings his career to Marco's paltry 463.1, not to mention Gio is 2 years younger and left handed. Marco had some good fortune will solo HRs, but I don't think that's really something we should be banking on to continue. He's always been prone to the HR as a pitcher because he doesn't throw hard and leaves the ball up. I get that Marco is effective but he's also the starting pitcher the Brewers will have to most likely have to cover an injury for as well, he doesn't have great stuff, though he's got 1 very good off speed pitch, and he's never located all that well. The real question here is what teams have additional options behind the pitchers listed and which of those pitchers can we reasonably project to right the ship given what they've done over the past? Estrada is floating exactly about where his overall package lies as a pitcher, he's a high 3/low 4 ERA guy in any given year. He's not bad, he's simply replaceable for all of the reasons laid out in the transaction forum. Any pitcher can have a down year but moving Estrada isn't about what he is, but rather what he isn't. You don't give him away but if there's a really good trade sitting out there for Estrada or Gallardo why not pull the trigger and try to get something that could be part of the Brewer's future? If you don't think you would make either player a qualifying offer (hoping they'd turn it down) then shouldn't the idea be not "if" to look at making a deal but rather taking the best deal "when" it presents itself? If now is that time why not make a move? The Brewers don't have to "knee jerk" and pull Estrada from the rotation but they absolutely shouldn't sit on their hands either. In the right situation moving on from Estrada could be better for the present and future.

2013 Draft Retrospective: One year gone Top three picks -- Appel, Bryant, Gray -- each on different paths

One more time here is PG's handy draft article with all of the applicable links. A tremendous draft resource. 2014 MLB Draft Preview Content

Top 100 College Seniors

Everything you need from BA for the draft is linked here. Welcome To Draft Day! June 5, 2014 by Will Lingo

God I hope... Mock Draft 5.0: Aiken Looks Like No. 1 June 5, 2014 by John Manuel

There's a difference between ceiling and a reasonable projection. Nelson, Peralta, and Thornburg all have a ceiling as #2, but will they will get there? Early in his career I thought Thornburg could maybe be #2 but then he got to the upper levels and started giving up XBHs at an alarming rate. Peralta was a 2 pitch pitcher without control through most of his minor league career, most prospect evaluators thought he was a bullpen arm. Nelson looked awful when I saw him in WI, he was a 2 pitch guy without control as well. Certain posters on this forum here and there may think a prospect is much better than he is, we will all champion guys we like to a certain degree, but again we don't really have a pitcher with that true impact profile: 2-3 plus pitches, FB topping out at 95+, control with a BB rate down around 2, a K rate over 9 for their career, and who's going to give you 7+ IP on 110 pitches on a somewhat regular basis. Nelson is ascending that way but his control still comes and goes while Thornburg has been about the same his entire minor league career and through his first 117+ MLB innings has a BB rate of 3.8 and K rate of 7.2. Peralta didn't come out of the draft, he was an international signee, another area the Brewers have been horrible historically, producing just 2 MLB players (Alcides Escobar & Wily Peralta) since I happened across Brewerfan.net way back in the day, but that's a different discussion entirely. We have a ton of guys with 2nd or 3rd tier FBs, some of those guys have a plus pitch, some guys max out around MLB average with their best secondary offering. Jimmy Nelson are Ariel Pena are the only 2 RH starting prospects with "stuff" above R with a K rate over 9. Mike Fiers, Jacob Barnes, and Hiram Burgos were the others. Nelson and Pena both have 2nd tier FB velocity, the other guys are average. Nelson's BB rate is 2.8 which is pretty good but Pena's is a whopping 4.9. We have 6 LH starters in the entire organization, only 2 have a K rate over 9, 110 year old Brad Mills (okay he's 29 but not a prospect) and Tyler Alexander who's more funky than he is wicked. If Bradley's velocity has come back he's only lefty with even 2nd tier velocity, all the rest of those guys are average or worse. Seid's track record with impact pitching at the top of the draft is horrible, he's done well in the middle area... Nelson, Thornburg, Wagner, and Williams look promising with Jorge Lopez being a bit of wild card. I also liked Drew Gagnon when he was in WI but he hasn't made much improvement as he's moved up, his rate stats in AA are awful. Arnett, Heckathorn, Covey, Jungmann, and Bradley are not top of the rotation guys and it was very apparent in their first MiLB season. Of course Covey didn't sign but he wasn't a good target regardless, he still doesn't have a plus secondary offering and he's repeating A ball this year for the A's as a 22 year old. He may ultimately be a big league pitcher, but other than a 2nd tier FB he's not outstanding in any way. So point remains, there were impact arms all over the place in 2011 and there are plenty arms with impact potential in this draft as well. We can be "in it" with a rotation full of 3s but I don't think we can win anything meaningful in the post season with that kind of roster construction, at some point we need pitchers we can match-up to the best in baseball. Maybe Peralta (again not drafted by Seid) can get there but he's not enough by himself. We need at least 1 more guy of that type, preferably 2 in the rotation to go with him.

That's kind of the point though... the standard excuse is always Team X had high draft picks to build their team, as if the Brewers didn't build their team with high draft picks? The point is how well teams do developing talent without having a top 10 pick... something the Brewers haven't excelled at by any means under Seid to this point. Coulter and Taylor were good a start, I like Haniger, I've never been sure that Roache would hit enough. Pitching wise they've done well with mid and back of the rotation types, but haven't really brought in any impact talent though I really liked the Devin Williams pick. This is the draft to make some gains on the impact pitching front, if it doesn't happen here and didn't happen in 2011... well then there's really not much hope for this current group. Pitching has been the only thing holding this organization back for a long time and yet they continually chose to address the issue the worst way possible from a long-term perspective... trading for short duration pitchers, drafting pitchers that had big arms but no control (even though they've never had success with that kind of player), and then going the "quick moving" college route picking higher floor players that haven't yet made MLB or are washed out of baseball. I like the fact we finally have some pitching depth in 3-5s, but the lack of anyone with true impact potential is a tremendous glaring weakness, as is the fact that Bradley (whom I still don't trust) is the only LHP starting pitcher with any kind of stuff.