Tyler Black Isn't Going to Be a Slugger, But Brewers Need Him to Find a Groove in MLB

[Matthew Trueblood]

It's becoming a very familiar refrain: This young Brewers hitter is proving not to have plus power. However, he can still be a solid offensive contributor--and the team needs him to be.

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Given that he appears to be confined to first base, DH, and perhaps some time in the corner outfield, it would be great if Tyler Black could hit for power. He's a strong young player, and as recently as a few months ago, there was real, well-founded faith that he might find his way to just that kind of pop.

However, all along, there were signs that Black would struggle in this particular area. His exit velocities, especially on balls hit with line-drive or fly-ball launch angles, are well below the MLB average--and that's looking at his data against Triple-A pitching, primarily. The hope was that, as he got a second look at the league and could make some adjustments to more advanced pitching, he could change that and start generating real pop.

Instead, since Jun. 1, Black has only four home runs. He commands the strike zone brilliantly, with good plate discipline and contact skills. He's fast, and he figures to hit for a decent average as he concretizes his approach. However, the power hasn't been in evidence. He remains below-average both in the top-end exit velocities he reaches and the average power he creates when lifting the ball.

As you can see, by this reckoning, Black is most akin to Sal Frelick and Brice Turang, who have each been persistently punchless in MLB. Joey Ortiz shares their low average exit velocity when getting it in the air, but has shown greater raw power than the other three.

Let's look at it another way. Here's the percentage of plate appearances ending in batted balls with an exit velocity over 100 miles per hour, charted against the percentage of them that end with a ball hit in the air to the pull field. The latter is the surest way for a hitter without big raw power to overachieve in terms of real power production. Maybe Black has shown some of that.

Oof. Not at all. This way of mapping power skills isolates Black with Turang and Frelick even more. If the Brewers were only going for more power, they would do better to call up Brewer Hicklen than to keep trying it with Black. It's pretty clear that they prefer Black's left-handed matchup value and more balanced skill set. They see these data, too; they know Black isn't a power bat about to break through.

Importantly, then, the question really isn't about Black's power. It's about whether he can translate what he's done in the upper minors to the big leagues. This year, with Nashville, Black has batted .276/.389/.448, with 47 walks, 11 hit-by-pitches, and just 61 strikeouts in 368 plate appearances. We know that the slugging average will come down significantly in MLB, but if he can come close to matching the average and the OBP, he's a very valuable hitter, and he would lengthen the Brewers lineup significantly.

So far, alas, he hasn't even come close to achieving that. It's only 46 plate appearances, but he's batting .200/.304/,250, with 15 strikeouts. If the bigger strike zone in MLB will compromise Black's ability to avoid punchouts and draw walks, or even if it will merely make it harder for him to hit for average, then his utility rapidly dwindles.

Right now, the Brewers can't afford to play Black every day and wait to find out how well he can adjust. That's one of the burdens of being a very good team, jockeying for high playoff seeding. While injuries do leave room for him on the roster, though, they should strive to get a longer look at him. In the long term, they need him to shore up his approach and convert it into the kind of numbers he was putting up in the minors, even if it be without power.

With Frelick, Turang, Ortiz, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and whichever of Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell is healthy on a given day, the Crew already have a lot of good hitters--good OBP guys, that is, albeit with varying degrees of power. Key role players Andruw Monasterio and Blake Perkins have the same profile, broadly speaking. It's something on which the organization prides itself, and a lineup full of guys with above-average OBPs can thrive even without a Murderer's Row of sluggers. Black can be part of that success, but only if he's able to be another strong link in that chain, rather than the weak one that lets it break.

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[Brian]

Black still hasn't proven to me he can even hit in the Bigs.  Some guys just can't make that jump (Weimer/Hiura) and I'm starting to believe he is also one of them.  Now is not the time of year to start trying to see if he can play up here unless an injury occurs and you have no other choice. 

[Scooterfletcher]

He look like Mat Gamel to me.   Not sure we are the right organization for him.  Look into Bassitt for Black with other piece’s included this offseason