Brewers' Defense Carries the Heavy Load for Pitching Staff's Run Prevention

[Tim Muma]

The Milwaukee Brewers have long relied on an effective pitching and defense strategy, as evidenced by their six playoff appearances in seven seasons, including four NL Central titles. However, over the last two years, the defense has taken on a greater role than the pitching in the team’s success. Is that a good thing?

Image courtesy of © Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

Even with a stronger offense in 2024, Milwaukee remains defined by its pitching and defense. Despite the Brewers cycling through 13 starting pitchers (not counting “openers”) and 12 relievers earning at least one save, the staff rolls on successfully. Entering the final week of the season, they have the second-lowest ERA (3.70) in the National League. And while they have had some ridiculous bullpen arms to rely on in 2024, the overall pitching staff has been carried more by its defense than its own arm talent.

Defensive excellence in baseball is often overlooked and difficult to evaluate. Experts continue to try to find reliable metrics to gauge a player’s defensive value, but a lot of uncertainty remains when it comes to trustworthy results.

While highlight plays, such as Milwaukee's propensity for home run robberies or incredible diving stops and throws, are easy to notice, it’s the subtler aspects of defense that make the biggest difference. The Brewers excel at them. The team ranks third in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Their ability to reach more batted balls and turn hits into outs better than most teams has been key to their success. This defensive strength stems from several standout players:

• Brice Turang (2B): First in DRS among second basemen
• Sal Frelick (RF): First
• Joey Ortiz (3B): Fourth
• Blake Perkins (CF): Fifth

In the cases of Ortiz and Perkins, remember, too, that DRS is a counting stat. Playing more gives a player more chances to accrue runs saved. Both Ortiz and Perkins have played less than some players ahead of them on their respective leaderboards.

On the pitching front, the Brewers peaked in 2021 and 2022. The 2021 staff posted the franchise’s best ERA (3.50) and FIP (3.72) of the past eight seasons. Then, in 2022, the team had its lowest Expected FIP (xFIP) over that same span, at 3.66. With FIP, the focus is on elements the pitcher “controls”--strikeouts, walks and home runs--while removing defensive factors and luck (or at least mitigating them). It’s one way to gauge a pitcher’s true skill, whereas ERA encompasses every aspect of run prevention.

One simple method to evaluate a defense's impact on pitching is to look at the difference between ERA and FIP (ERA-FIP). The further this number dips below zero, the more significant the defense’s contribution has been. In recent years, the Brewers' defense has played an even larger role in their run prevention, as evidenced by this growing gap between ERA and FIP.



The Brewers have the lowest ERA-FIP in MLB this season, far below the next club, the Cleveland Guardians, with their -0.36. If the season ended today, the Brewers' ERA-FIP would be the 11th-lowest by any team since 2000. While it's unclear how much credence we can give ERA-FIP as an indicator of success, especially in playoff series, there are several fascinating results from some of the 10 teams with a lower ERA-FIP since 2000:

• 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers: World Series Champions
• 2016 Chicago Cubs: World Series Champions
• 2015 St. Louis Cardinals: 100 wins; lost in NLDS to Cubs
• 2005 St. Louis Cardinals: 100 wins; lost in NLCS to Houston Astros
• 2002 Anaheim Angels: World Series Champions
• 2002 Atlanta Braves: 101 wins; lost in NLDS to San Francisco Giants
• 2001 Seattle Mariners: MLB record 116 wins; lost in ALCS to New York Yankees

Why has Milwaukee’s defense been so valuable this season? Comparing the Brewers’ 2024 rotation to that of 2021 highlights the shift. In 2021, Milwaukee boasted three All-Star starting pitchers, in eventual Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. Each had an ERA below 3.00, and Burnes had an astounding 1.63 FIP. The team’s elite pitching trio, supported by closer Josh Hader and Weapon X Devin Williams, made defense less crucial, though it was still strong.

In contrast, the 2024 rotation has been more volatile, with no clear ace and frequent changes to the top five starters, and even what order you’d rank them in, every few weeks. While there have been moments of brilliance, the overall performance doesn’t scream elite pitching. One telling indicator of a non-dominant pitching staff is that the Brewers rank only 17th in strikeout percentage (K%) this season.

This invites the question: is it better to have elite pitching with good defense, or average pitching with elite defense? Watching the Arizona Diamondbacks in Milwaukee raised this question. Arizona benefitted from weak contact—bleeders and bloopers—but also hit some home runs. Home runs, of course, are solely the pitchers’ responsibility, despite Milwaukee's efforts to keep those balls in the yard, too. Ultimately, the team’s pitching does get hurt by the lack of strikeouts that increase the number of balls in play, even though they convert those balls into outs at sensational rates. As good as the defense is, they can't cover every inch of the field.

This hot corner defense from Joey Ortiz ? pic.twitter.com/9DnHRYZdXb

— MLB (@MLB) September 22, 2024

So how do we measure the balance between defensive talent and other factors? FanGraphs suggests defense accounts for about 35-40 percent of the ERA-FIP gap, but other elements play a role--such as sequencing. If a team hits a home run after a walk and single, the sequence nets the offense three runs. However, if the same three outcomes are in the reverse order before the inning’s final out, they score just once. This suggests that “luck” and lineup construction matter as well (we can fight about how much batting order matters another time).

Another factor influencing ERA-FIP is baserunning. Teams like Arizona, with speed and smart baserunners, can turn walks and singles into runs more efficiently. In theory, great defense can neutralize aggressive baserunners, but elite pitching prevents more runners from ever reaching base.

So, heading into the playoffs, the Brewers’ reliance on defense remains an intriguing test case. Is it a concern, especially against dynamic offenses like Arizona’s, or is a top-tier defense more reliable than hoping for elite pitching in every game? As indicated by the list above, some recent teams have ridden defensive groups better than their pitching staffs all the way to a World Series parade. Even the best pitchers have blowup games or get hurt by well-placed hits. The 2021 team had elite pitching, but was still knocked out early--although that was more a product of a non-existent offense (scoring just six runs in the series, including two shutouts) and injuries to Brent Suter and Williams than of those aces faltering. The truth is, we probably don't know anything tangible as of yet.

As manager Pat Murphy has noted, this year’s team is different. However, the ERA, FIP and xFIP metrics are almost identical to last year, when Milwaukee was bounced in the Wild Card round by Arizona. It remains to be seen if the ERA-FIP and defense-heavy reliance indicate anything about the Brewers' chances at a deep playoff run. Whether pitching-led or defense-led, we’ll soon see how it plays out for the Brewers.

What’s your take on the balance between pitching and defense?

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