2025 NL Central Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

[Michael Trzinski]

Historically speaking, the St. Louis Cardinals are one of the most successful teams in major league history, having won 11 World Series in 19 tries, second only to the 27 titles of the New York Yankees. However, while the Cards played in the postseason each year from 2019-2022, they've come up short the last two seasons, finishing fifth in the NL Central in 2023 while grabbing a runner-up spot last year. What do they have in store in 2025?

Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri/USA Today

Last Year
Although they weren’t terrible — playing above .500 ball in five of the six months of the 2024 season — the Cardinals just didn’t have enough horsepower to keep up in the division. St. Louis finished tied for second with the Chicago Cubs with an 83-79 record, 10 games behind Milwaukee for the NL Central title in 2024. However, closer Ryan Helsley not only led the National League with 49 saves, but he also posted an ERA+ of 206 and a 2.41 FIP. He was the only Cardinals All-Star and finished ninth in the NL Cy Young voting. Manager Oliver Marmol is beginning his fourth year at the helm at just 38 years old.

Key Losses: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, INF Matt Carpenter, OF Dylan Carlson, OF Tommy Pham, and P’s Andrew Kittredge, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn.

Key Signings: P Nick Anderson, UTIL Michael Helman, P Roddery Muñoz, IF-OF José Barrero.

Starting Pitching
The Cardinals appear to be set in their rotation with four righties and one southpaw. Erick Fedde came over from the White Sox and had an ERA+ of 126 and a FIP of 3.86. Miles Mikolas had perhaps his worst season since arriving in St. Louis with an ERA+ of 78 and FIP of 4.24. Sonny Gray dropped off a bit from his dominant 2023 but won a team-high 13 games with an ERA+ of 109 and FIP of 3.12. Andre Pallante is the only projected starter younger than 30 years old at 26, but in his first year as a full-time starter posted an ERA+ of 111 and FIP of 3.71. Left-hander Steven Matz was limited to 12 appearances (seven starts) in 2024 due to a back injury but is healthy this spring and will be a back-end starter in the rotation. Michael McGreevy will challenge for a spot but will most likely start the season in Triple-A. Lefty Zack Thompson has a left lat injury and will most likely not be ready until late April/early May.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Name	FIP	fWAR	K%	BB%
Erick Fedde	4.28	1.4	21.1	7.4
Miles Mikolas	4.47	1.1	16.1	4.7
Sonny Gray	3.48	2.9	25.5	6.7
Andre Pallante	3.98	1.4	17.0	9.2
Steven Matz (LH)	4.05	1.0	20.1	7.4
Michael McGreevy	4.13	1.8	16.7	6.3
Zack Thompson (LH)	4.33	0.8	22.3	10.8

Relief Pitching

Ryan Helsley will once again be the closer after saving 49 games last season. Ryan Fernandez will see some high-leverage action after a 120 ERA+, 3.35 FIP season. Southpaws JoJo Romero (125 ERA+, 4.27 FIP), Matthew Liberatore (95, 4.11), and John King (148, 3.73) will all have prominent roles in the bullpen. Newcomer Nick Anderson (106, 5.07) should take over the role held by Kittredge last year, while Riley O’Brien (39, 7.04) and Kyle Leahy (104, 3.56) have a leg up for the final spots. Roddery Muñoz and Gordon Graceffo can start or relieve and will challenge for either spot, while Chris Roycroft and Ryan Loutos will fight for relief spots in the bullpen.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Name	FIP	fWAR	K%	BB%
Ryan Helsley	2.86	1.0	30.6	9.0
Ryan Fernandez	3.66	0.4	23.3	8.9
JoJo Romero (LH)	3.73	0.3	23.9	7.8
Matthew Liberatore (LH)	4.17	0.8	21.2	8.7
Nick Anderson	4.33	0.0	20.4	8.6
John King (LH)	3.80	0.4	15.2	5.8
Riley O’Brien	4.59	0.1	22.6	11.9
Kyle Leahy	4.44	0.2	17.5	8.7
Roddery Muñoz	5.11	0.0	19.3	10.2
Gordon Graceffo	4.54	0.8	16.1	7.7
Ryan Loutos	4.10	0.1	19.1	8.9
Chris Roycroft	4.40	-0.1	18.8	10.6

Catcher
Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés will most likely split the time behind the dish, once the domain of Yadier Molina. Herrera is better with the bat (.301/.372/.428), but Pagés (.238/.281/.376) is better at throwing out runners (19% compared to seven percent). Willson Contreras will play mostly at first base but could catch if needed. Chance Sisco and Jimmy Crooks (the Cardinals' #4 prospect) are also in camp.

First Base
Alec Burleson will see plenty of time at first, as will Contreras. Burleson (.269/.314/.420) will also take turns as the designated hitter, along with Contreras and Luken Baker, who has nothing left to prove after hitting 112 home runs over the last four seasons at Double-A and Triple-A.

Second Base
Nolan Gorman is in his fourth year, and although he has had a negative DRS each year, he will be given every opportunity to get 600 at-bats this season. If Nolan Arenado is traded, Gorman would probably move to third. Brendan Donovan made 49 starts at second last year but will get most of his playing time in left field. Thomas Saggese and José Fermín can play second and short but are probably going back to the minors to start the campaign.

Third Base
Right now, the spot is Arenado’s, despite the desire of the Cardinals to trade him. Last year was the first time in 12 years that Arenado (.275/.325/.394) didn’t win a Gold Glove or make the All-Star team. Fermín and Donovan each played more than 50 innings at the hot corner last year.

Shortstop
Masyn Winn’s DRS of 14 was the best in the majors at short, and he also had 52 extra-base hits along with his slash line of .267/.314/.416 and 102 OPS+. He is a superstar in the making. José Barrero can play short and all three outfield spots and will be one of the last players on the bench.

Left Field
For now, Donovan (.278/.342/.417) is expected to get most of the starts in left, with Barrero serving as a back-up. Donovan is a solid defender and won a Gold Glove as a utility player in 2022.

Center Field
Lars Nootbaar is slated to play in center but will also play a few games in left field. The versatile Barrero can play all three spots but needs to regain his batting eye. Michael Siani slashed only .228/.285/.285 last year and led the team with 20 steals but will be relegated to defensive replacement and pinch-runner status.

Right Field
Jordan Walker was the #4 prospect in the game in 2023 but just hasn’t put it all together yet. He had a fine rookie season but regressed last year, playing only 51 games for the Cardinals, slashing .201/.253/.366. Expected to take over in right field this year, Walker has been slowed by a knee injury this spring but should be back in the lineup by the start of the season. Victor Scott II and Matt Koperniak are on the borderline of making the big league team. The London-born Koperniak has a career .834 OPS in the minors.

Designated Hitter
Ten returning players spent at least one game at DH last year. Expect more of the same as manager Marmol plays mix-and-match with whoever isn’t playing in the field.  

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Name (L)= Lefthanded	wRC+	OPS	wOBA	fWAR
Iván Herrera	107	.724	.321	2.2
Pedro Pagés	76	.621	.275	1.3
Willson Contreras	117	.764	.336	2.9
Alec Burleson (L)	112	.759	.329	2.2
Nolan Gorman (L)	108	.748	.323	2.1
Brendan Donovan (L)	119	.769	.339	2.7
Luken Baker	94	.692	.301	0.2
Nolan Arenado	107	.744	.321	3.1
Masyn Winn	96	.699	.304	3.1
José Barrero	74	.617	.272	0.6
Lars Nootbaar (L)	118	.776	.337	2.5
Michael Siani (L)	65	.572	.258	0.3
Jordan Walker	101	.718	.312	0.8
Matt Koperniak	93	.681	.299	1.2
Victor Scott II (L)	70	.599	.266	0.9

Summary
The Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections have the Cardinals winning 77.8 games, which ranks fourth in the NL Central. The Brewers, Pirates, and Cardinals are rated less than two games apart, so it is just a matter of which team has their youngsters come through, which team can stay injury free, and which team has all the pieces come together. If you believe PECOTA (I don’t), the Cubs are the elite team in the Central with a projected win total of 91.5 games. Time will tell how this tightly bunched division will shake out come October.

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