Can Brewers Wait Out Padres' Bullpen in NLDS?

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

With their slumping offense and weak pitching staff, the Chicago Cubs would have been a better NLDS matchup for the Brewers. Instead, they'll face the red-hot San Diego Padres, who disposed of the floundering Cubs with ease in the NL Wild Card Series.

The Padres swept the then-injury-riddled Brewers in San Diego when the teams last met in August, but on paper, Milwaukee is the better team. Their offense is better (107 wRC+ vs. 102 wRC+). Their pitching staff is deeper. By Defensive Runs Saved, they've been better in the field.

Even San Diego's bullpen might not be much better than Milwaukee's, but it's their undisputed strength and what makes them a greater threat than the Cubs. Padres relievers led all teams in fWAR during the regular season, thanks to their three-headed monster in the late innings. Closer Mason Miller led all relievers in fWAR; left-hander Adrian Morejon ranked fourth; and rookie Bradgley Rodriguez ranked 26th. The trio threw 4 ⅔ scoreless innings in the Wild Card Series and combined for 9 shutout frames against the Brewers this year.

Grabbing early leads will be paramount in the five-game series, but at some point, the Brewers will probably have to make a dent in that bullpen. That's a daunting task, but Milwaukee's offense may be as equipped as any to wear down San Diego relievers.

Many of the Padres' key relievers succeed by forcing opponents to expand the strike zone. Their bullpen ranked just 26th in zone rate, throwing 46.5% of pitches over the plate, but led baseball with a 32.4% chase rate. The arms the Brewers will see most in the next week—Miller, Morejon, Rodriguez, Jason Adam, and Yuki Matsui—are all chase merchants.

Reliever	Zone%	Chase%	K%	BB%
Mason Miller	45.1%	36.1%	47.4%	9.6%
Adrian Morejon	48.7%	38.3%	30.4%	8.0%
Bradgley Rodriguez	48.9%	34.4%	26.9%	6.6%
Yuki Matsui	42.6%	31.5%	26.2%	13.8%
Jason Adam	46.1%	34.1%	15.5%	7.0%

The Brewers, meanwhile, have been baseball's most patient offense for the second straight year. Their 26.6% chase rate this year was the lowest in baseball. That's because they emphasize swing decisions (and, specifically, the value of swinging only at hittable strikes) above all else. Swinging at the right pitches will be even more important in the postseason, where the Brewers will face some of the game's best pitching.

"If you try to force something in this setting, it doesn't work, I don't think," Pat Murphy said earlier this week. "I think it is magnified, and I think we've got to double down even more on that ball-strike. You're facing the best pitchers, so the run expectancy is going to be down, right? So it becomes magnified."

That's easier said than done, though. The Brewers chased 29.3% of pitches outside the zone against the Padres' bullpen this year, including a combined 30.5% chase rate against Miller, Morejon, and Rodriguez. All three rely heavily on their secondary stuff. Miller threw more sliders than fastballs this year; Morejon threw his changeup 36% of the time to right-handed batters; and Rodriguez threw his changeup 43% of the time.

The Brewers are actually more selective against secondary pitches than most of the league, but like all teams, they chase those pitches more than they chase heaters, because they have more movement than fastballs. Furthermore, when pitchers attack the Brewers with non-fastballs, they go from one of baseball's best offenses to an average one. On a rate basis, their run value against fastballs was near the top, but they were middle-of-the-pack against breaking balls and changeups.

Pitch Group	Run Value/100p	Rank
Fastballs	0.196	3rd
Breaking	0.162	11th
Offspeed	0.169	12th

The Padres could also adjust their approach against a passive Milwaukee lineup. Facing the similarly patient Cubs on Wednesday night, Miller threw his fastball 63% of the time and tried to attack the zone more aggressively. The Brewers should be able to play the waiting game with Adam and Matsui, but Miller, Morejon, and Rodriguez all have good enough fastballs to live over the heart of the plate when they choose.

Reliever	4-Seam Stuff+	Sinker Stuff+
Mason Miller	105
Adrian Morejon	127	129
Bradgley Rodriguez	108	101
Yuki Matsui	96	94
Jason Adam	90

If the Brewers influence the Padres' best arms to throw more fastballs for strikes, they must be ready to attack. That wasn't always the case in the regular season; their 69% swing rate on fastballs in the heart of the zone was the second-lowest in baseball. When they did swing at those pitches, though, their 0.855 run value per 100 pitches ranked second.

With better starting pitchers and a better overall lineup, the Brewers should be able to gain an upper hand on the Padres. Once San Diego goes to the bullpen, it will be strength against strength. The series may hinge on the Brewers forcing Padres relievers to change their approach and taking advantage of more in-zone fastballs than most teams get.

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[Brian]

If Padre pitchers are throwing strikes there is no "waiting out" anything and I feel they are good enough to do that.  As long as we are disciplined and swing at strikes, not chasing, that should be our only approach. 

Do not do what the Cubs did by hitters watching good pitches go by early for strikes. They looked just awful.  P.S. Machado played out of his mind that series.