How is the 2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Class Faring?

The 2024 draft class for the Milwaukee Brewers received less fanfare than the host of names they managed to wrangle in 2023, but it's fair to say some of the names have emerged as pleasant surprises this spring. With plenty of teenage talent and roaring fastballs, let's see how their first month in the system has progressed;

Braylon Payne, CF (Low A) - .275/.393/.449, 2 HR
Payne was an unheralded, unexpected pick at No. 17 in last year's first round, renowned as a slap hitter with great speed in center field. Upon entering the system, Payne has debunked all of the tepid hitting projections, crushing multiple balls over 110 mph, including this home run:

Payne is striking out a little more often of late, producing a contact rate of just 71% in the early going, but he also shows a patient approach at the plate. There's room to grow, but the month of April has been a startling display of the collection of raw tools this young man possesses.

There can be a lot of ground balls, but he also hits a lot of fly balls, with 35.4% of batted balls of that variety in April. Clocking 70-grade times from home to first and showing outstanding center field coverage, this is turning out to be a very exciting pick as someone incredibly young for the level.

Using Thomas Nestico's new model (which is based on estimations, and not 100% exact), Payne's swing decisions have improved since joining the Mudcats, with increased in-zone swings and reduced chases. The swing-and-miss is a concern, but the new swing path he's showing off (in an attempt to distance himself from the label as a slapster, and tap into his raw power) will certainly play a part in that, and it should come down as he grows more and more comfortable with it.

Blake Burke, 1B (High A) - .275/.381/.391
Burke was advertised as a crushing slugger (with some swing-and-miss issues and poor defense at first base) when the Brewers picked him up with the 34th pick of the draft. Our own Joseph Zarr will immediately and vociferously tell you that the young man has hands and range at first base to dispel those defensive reports, while he's also posting a solid 78% contact rate overall. 

Burke has shown the elite exit velocities that get prospect watchers to sit up and take stock, including this 107-mph rocket courtesy of our own prospect guru:

Burke's power hasn't quite shown up in his first month of pro ball, largely down to a lot of ground balls. He's got the highest ground ball rate in the Brewers system, at 57.1% so far—basically, Christian Yelich levels—but Burke has historically shown no issue with elevating the baseball, and will likely just be adjusting to the level. Once that power kicks in, I'm not sure he'll be in Wisconsin for long—despite the infield depth at Biloxi.

You can see below using Thomas Nestico's new minor-league model how Burke took a little adjustment with pitch recognition. He's now both above average with in-zone swings, and significantly above-average with his chase rate, great signs for the powerful first baseman after below-average marks to begin the year.

Bryce Meccage RHP (Low A) - 2.92 ERA, 28% whiff rate
Meccage was the second-round pick for the Brewers, and may have the prettiest curveball in the system. Apart from one rough outing, he's looked the part on the mound, touching 96 mph on the fastball with wicked breaking pitches that have hitters flummoxed. To put it all together, Meccage has a big-moving "kick-change" that he's used occasionally and could develop into a strong fourth offering.

The fastball looks to have a really nice rising effect to it, and have a look at the slider/curveball combination. The strikeout total isn't quite matching the whiff rates he's getting, as he's often putting hitters away quickly with weak contact. Command can escape him at times, but as a 19-year-old out of high school, he's showing more polish than you would expect. He's likely on an innings and pitch limit, but the stuff looks as good as advertised for the young hurler from New Jersey.

When a pitcher has a strong ground ball rate of 45.5% and a swinging strike rate of 15% (per pitch thrown), that's a nice combination. It should help Meccage avoid the home run ball.

Marco Dinges C (Low A) - .362/.500/.553, 190 WRC+
Yep, you read that right, Dinges is producing a .500 on-base percentage in Low-A Carolina. Dinges signed in the fourth round out of Florida State, where he endured some horrific health scares and mostly served as designated hitter in his final season. The Brewers saw something they liked in a player whose bat stood out and who hasn't caught that much even in his juco days. His line drive rate of 29.3% in April is behind only super-prospect Jesus Made in the Brewers system.

Dinges is in Low A more because of his defense than his offense, but even that is showing up well. Recording some pop times below 1.90 and catching six base stealers in 22 attempts is nothing to sniff at, while his receiving is coming along. An athletic mover, Dinges looks like he could be a real prospect if he can stick behind the dish.

John Holobetz RHP (Low A) - 2.89 ERA, 1.69 FIP
Holobetz was a fifth-round pick out of Old Dominion, and his fastball has been his calling card so far. Boasting a 33.3% strikeout rate and a 3.8% walk rate, Holobetz has mown down hitters at Low-A Carolina. He's pounded the strike zone, giving up solid enough contact to opposing hitters and occasionally living dangerously over the heart of the plate, and his ground ball rate is quite low—only 32%.

The four-seamer has been up another tick since his first start, and is definitely his calling card, jumping on hitters from a relatively low arm slot. He featured just a fastball/slider combo in college and has yet to show a developed third pitch for my eye, but it'll be a point of difference if he looks to continue starting for the Brewers as he moves up the levels.

Chandler Welch RHP (High A) - 5.89 ERA, 4.07 FIP
Welch hasn't had quite the start Holobetz has, but has had a more aggressive assignment to High-A Wisconsin—where he, too, has pounded the zone. Welch's best start came on April 13, when he went six innings, allowed one run and racked up seven strikeouts. His well-rounded arsenal has struggled to generate swings and misses in the early going. Armed with a cutter and slider that are probably his best offerings, Welch also has a changeup, curveball and four-seam fastball in his repertoire.

Outside of that outing, Welch has conceded 11 runs in 12 1/3 innings of baseball with only five strikeouts in those games. He will need to find more swing-and-miss if he wants to progress through the system, but the cutter has looked a nice pitch so far in terms of movement.

Sam Garcia - LHP (Low A) - 3.52 ERA, 25.4% K rate
Garcia was the Brewers' eighth-round pick, with outlier four-seam fastball characteristics coming out of the draft. Garcia has struggled with walks early in his pro career, a 13% clip, but he's also shown some electric stuff. With a Chris Sale-esque release point, Garcia has a flat vertical approach angle on his fastball, giving it a rising effect, as well as a nice sweepy slider and a changeup.

He doesn't throw hard, sitting around 89-90mph, but his release point has proved difficult for Low-A hitters to pick up, producing almost a 30% whiff rate on swings. If he can rein in the walks somewhat, he'll likely move to High A without too much trouble. He did have a breakthrough in this regard in his final college season, but he looks destined to be in the relief mold, unless he can find another few ticks in his arsenal.

Tyson Hardin - RHP (High A) - 0.96 ERA, 28.6% K rate, 50% GB rate
Perhaps the most exciting under-the-radar pitching prospect so far, Hardin was a 12th-rounder out of Mississippi State whose four-seam fastball (which I heard recently, I believe again from Spencer, that he didn't even throw in college) has been one of the best pitches in the minor leagues. With a low release height and high induced vertical break, Hardin has an approach angle of around -3.8 degrees, a number that would lead the majors by some margin. In other words, his fastball doesn't react the way our brains and eyes expect it to, and gets misses above a lot of bats.

Hardin's cutter is one of his favorite offerings, more like a hard slider, and is a reason for the high ground ball rate, but he also throws a changeup, curveball and sinker to round out a five-pitch arsenal.

The heavy fastball usage has been a common theme throughout his starts, and High-A hitters have had no answer. Hardin may need to continue refining his arsenal as he develops. Even that unique four-seamer can't handle the majors on its own. The cutter/hard slider looks tasty shape-wise, sitting around 88-89 mph, but Hardin came out of college as a two-pitch reliever, so this is already a major stride for him.

Travis Smith RHP (Low A) - 2.25 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 14.3% K Rate, 2% BB rate
Smith has started piggybacking starts with Sam Garcia, and together, they've been mightily effective, despite lacking the swing-and-miss and strikeout rates you might hope for. A 15th-round pick, Smith was considered inconsistent out of the draft, but with good potential, given his mid-90s fastball and high-spin curveball. He throws all three fastball variations and a changeup, fitting the Brewers' mold, He relies more on the sinker/cutter combo to attack down in the zone, one reason for the low swing and miss we've seen from him so far.

Several other notables should be making appearances as we approach the start of the Arizona Summer League (ACL), with pitchers like Jaron DeBerry (recently assigned to Low-A Carolina Mudcats), Griffin Tobias, Ethan Dorchies and Tyler Renz all likely to see action down in the desert. Already, though, this draft class is an intriguing one.

Interested in learning more about the Milwaukee Brewers' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!