Cashing in on Corbin: What’s Out There?

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Why is Burnes So Valuable?
Corbin Burnes brings everything you could want in a starting pitcher. Most important is his durability. He’s made 93 starts over his last three seasons, with over 200 strikeouts in each. Since his return to the Brewers in 2020 after a rocky 2019 campaign, here’s where Burnes ranks among pitchers with a minimum of 300 total innings:

• 2.98 xFIP (1st)
• .198 BAA (4th)
• 2.85 ERA (5th)
• 747 Strikeouts (3rd)
• 30.8% K Rate (7th)
• 2.82 FIP (2nd)
• 0.99 WHIP (4th)
• 0.8 HR/9 (7th)
• 609 2/3 Innings Pitched (6th)
• 46.8% Ground Ball Rate (27th)

All of this adds up to a workhorse who has proven (over three and a third seasons) that he’s durable, works deep into games, has top-tier strikeout stuff, and can keep the ball on the ground. This is a combination teams dream of, and constitutes as little risk as you can get with an elite starting pitcher. Burnes’s team control through the 2024 season allows any trading team an entire season to try and negotiate a long-term contract extension with the righty before he hits free agency, which may interest large-market teams like the Dodgers.

Everything Burnes does is based on his cutter. Some high-end relievers have a pitch like it, but no starter in MLB can rival the movement and speed at which he throws this pitch. Usually, hitters sit on a pitcher’s primary, fastball-adjacent offering, and try to do damage against it. Their goal is to lay off the rest. Yet, Burnes held hitters to a .209 batting average and .340 slugging percentage on his cutter. In July 2023, Burnes adapted his curveball and slider to increase their effectiveness in putting hitters away. He saw more movement differentiation with his slider, and added five inches more vertical drop to his curveball. It made a big difference in performance. Burnes threw 107 2/3 innings with a 3.94 ERA and 102 strikeouts before the All-Star break. After it, he threw 86 1/3 innings to a 2.71 ERA and 98 strikeouts, a considerable difference. The second-half version of Burnes is what other teams will be buying, not the one that struggled early in 2023 and at the back end of 2022. 

The Other Available Aces

Tyler Glasnow: 529 2/3 innings, 3.89 ERA, 678 strikeouts career line
Glasnow has an issue with staying healthy, and the stats above don’t demonstrate quite how much potential he’s flashed since 2021. However, during that time, he has averaged only 71 innings per season, which will have a massive effect on teams considering an acquisition. Armed with a 96.4-mph average fastball and a curveball that held hitters to just a .095/.190 line in 2023, he has the raw stuff to be successful if he can stay injury-free, but the concerns on a one-year trade and the $24-million salary he will receive in 2024 will put suitors off.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 1.21 ERA, 169 strikeouts, 28 walks in 164 innings during 2023 NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball)
Yamamoto is a two-time winner of both the Sawamura Award and the MVP award in Japan in the last two seasons, armed with an almost unhittable splitter. Combined with a mid-90s fastball and a unique curveball, he’s being widely courted in the majors. Scouts consider him a full step up from the talented Kodai Senga, and a likely number-one starter. There is one issue, however: the MLB ball’s seams are thicker and put more stress on a pitcher’s arm, particularly when throwing splitters. While Shohei Ohtani and Senga have partially assuaged these concerns, there are still question marks about how Yamamoto will perform Stateside.

Blake Snell: 180 innings pitched, 2.25 ERA, 234 strikeouts and 99 walks in 2023
Snell won his second career Cy Young Award last week, but it’s hard to imagine a two-time winner of that award who would make potential suitors more nervous in free-agent negotiations. Snell led the league in walks, and averaged less than six innings per start–hardly the traditional hallmarks of a true ace. That being said, he is a high-risk, high-reward option this offseason, even if he lacks the reliability of Burnes. He is one of the least aesthetically pleasing pitchers in the game, but his results are ace-level. 

Aaron Nola: 96 starts over the last three seasons, 660 strikeouts
Nola showed utter dominance in 2022, with a 0.95 WHIP and 3.25 ERA. However, he regressed in 2023 and recorded a 4.46 ERA. The man drafted seventh overall in 2014 posted a 2.35 ERA in the playoffs, when it mattered most. Teams know they’ll get length and quality starts from Nola, with the potential for more. His expected ERA (xERA, based on whiffs and batted-ball quality) has been significantly lower than his actual ERA in each of his last three seasons, likely due to the Phillies’ unimpressive defenses, coupled with a 96th-percentile chase rate arising from one of the best curveballs in the game. Nola’s top line may not challenge Burnes, but it shouldn’t be underestimated how much value he’ll have, due to his durability and underlying numbers.

Other key figures to watch are Jordan Montgomery, Marcus Stroman, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Shota Imanaga, but it’s fair to say none of the above quite tick all the boxes in the way that Burnes can. His most intense competition will be with Yamamoto. However, once he gets signed, many rejected teams may turn to Burnes and be aggressive about it. For the record, teams currently heavily interested in the Japanese star include the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, and Cubs. On top of that are teams more interested in the cost certainty of a one-year deal for Burnes to match their window–lower salary teams such as the Orioles, Rays, Mariners, Twins, or Diamondbacks.

What Trade Packages May Be on the Table?

Any team getting ahold of Burnes will either sign him to a long-term deal or get a compensatory draft pick following the 2024 season. That is important in constructing any potential trade package. Some stacked farm systems would be very appetizing to the Brewers’ front office, and any deal could come down to which prospects entice Matt Arnold the most. Burnes is projected to obtain a $15-million contract in arbitration next season, which may slightly limit the return, but it comes in nearly $10 million under Glasnow’s 2024 commitment price. The Brewers will probably be searching for MLB-ready talent, and some form of pitching capital should be involved in any deal. The Brewers are also searching for more power in their lineup, particularly in the infield. With that in mind, who could dangle some juicy carrots?

Los Angeles Dodgers - SP Ryan Pepiot, SP Emmet Sheehan, SS Joendry Vargas
These are two exciting pitching prospects. Pepiot carries some injury concerns, as well as occasional home run tendencies. However, he has an incredible knack for limiting walks and hard contact. Combined with a high chase rate (especially on his changeup), you can see why Pepiot shows some promise of being a solid big-leaguer for years to come. Without actual strikeout stuff, he will rely on good defense, particularly in the outfield–something the Brewers have prioritized since 2018 and which could allow him a place to flourish. The injury concerns, however, are sizable.

Emmet Sheehan, after a rocky start, showed some promise toward the end of the year, striking out 34 hitters in just 22 innings in September. The expectation is that he will develop significantly in the years to come, thanks partially to this early exposure. He had an xBA of .187, 98th-percentile in the league, alongside above-average chase and whiff rates...