Where Will Willy Adames End Up?

This is an excerpt from the 2024 Brewer Fanatic Offseason Handbook, you can find a link to download the entirety of Week Three of the handbook at the bottom of the article.

This publication is funded by Brewer Fanatic Caretakers and full entries are available exclusively to Caretakers. During the publish period of the handbook, we are offering 25% off all Caretaker packages using the coupon code HANDBOOK. To become a supporter of Brewer Fanatic, click here.

Another perk of Caretaking is ad-free browsing across all of Brewer Fanatic.

wiOffensively, Adames was below-average in 2023. His slash line of .217/.310/.407 totaled an OPS of .717 and registered an OPS+ of 95, making him five percent less effective than the average hitter when adjusting for ballpark factors. He struggled to make good contact and avoid strikeouts.

His average exit velocity was just 87.4 mph (16th percentile), and his hard-hit rate of 36.5% (23rd percentile) was down, too. Interestingly, his sweet-spot percentage and barrel rate were better than average, but how? 

The key differentiator is that barrel percentage for a batted ball is calculated using exit velocity and launch angle, while sweet-spot solely considers launch angle. The launch angle of his batted balls is in the sweet spot 35.0% of the time, right around the league average. When you throw in exit velocity to gauge how often he’s barreling the ball, his 12.4% rate (82nd percentile) was quite good. In essence, Adames is hitting the ball at the right trajectories, but isn’t hitting it hard enough, consistently enough.

Strikeouts have been a weakness in Adames’s approach. Often choosing to swing first and ask questions later, Adames ended up chasing 31.8% of the time (28th percentile), whiffing 31.0% of the time (18th percentile), and striking out 25.9% of the time (26th percentile). This approach isn’t uncommon in even the sport’s best hitters. Aaron Judge, Luis Robert Jr., and Adolis Garcia are some examples of productive players with worse-than-average strikeout figures. 

However, they can compensate by possessing more power, a characteristic Adames didn’t have this year. He was able to make up some points on his OPS with a great walk rate (11.1%, 82nd percentile), but it wasn’t enough to return his numbers to the level he reached in his stellar 2021 season.

In addition to the aforementioned regressions in exit velocity and strikeouts, Adames was probably a tad unlucky on batted balls. His expected batting average and slugging were quite a bit higher than his actual numbers, with his xBA at .242 and his xSLG at .442. His expected weighted on-base average was actually above average, at .341 (68th percentile), meaning that based on his intrinsic batted-ball characteristics, he should have produced more runs for his team than he did. Expected stats aside, he did seem to iron out some of his issues in the regular season’s final month, which saw him slash .240/.373/.479.

Despite a lukewarm year at the plate, Adames’s glove made him a very valuable player, overall. He was an integral part of the Brewers having one of the best infield defenses in MLB, and a key reason why they won the 2023 National League Team Gold Glove Award. At 16 outs above average, he was the second-most effective fielding shortstop, trailing only Dansby Swanson. Defensive Runs Saved didn’t look upon him as favorably, as his 8 DRS placed him eighth among shortstops. No matter which stat you decide to emphasize, Adames was, at the very least, one of the 10 best defensive shortstops in the game.

What’s His Trade Value?
Trading Adames wouldn’t be out of the question. With Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio available to play shortstop, there’s a reasonably high floor even if he does leave. Many teams could be interested in acquiring Adames to bolster their infield, but how many of those teams also have pieces that would interest the Brewers? 

San Francisco Giants
With Brandon Crawford’s long reign over, the Giants need a new shortstop for the first time in a decade, and they have plenty to offer. For example, Wilmer Flores (.863 OPS, 136 OPS+) would be a great addition to the Brewers and a big offensive upgrade at first base–though obviously, the Crew would want him in addition to other, younger talent, not in lieu thereof. Adames would give the Giants the defensive stability they always had at short during their glory days last decade, but which has eluded them as Crawford has aged and battled injuries the last few years.Unfortunately, the Giants were the worst-hitting team in the second half (.651 team OPS), so they might be unwilling to give up what little good hitting they have left. They have an excellent shortstop prospect named Marco Luciano, who could be exchanged, allowing the Giants to focus on winning now versus later and giving the Brewers a replacement to whom to look forward. It’s unlikely that Luciano would be available in an Adames deal, given that he’s only under club control for one more season, but maybe the Brewers could kick in some pitching depth and land an elite prospect that way...