3 Reasons Why Brewers Will Win the NL Central—and 3 Reasons They Might Not

After an offseason of waiting, Opening Day is finally here. The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Chicago White Sox on Thursday at 1:10 p.m. CT at American Family Field, to begin the 2026 season.

The Brewers have high expectations, having won the last three NL Central championships, but they also enter the season with several questions.

As such, here are three reasons why the Brewers will again finish atop the Central—and three reasons they could fall short.

The Brewers will win the Central because ...

The young starting pitchers step up

With a recent history of pulling the most out of pitchers, the Brewers' four young starters—Jacob Misiorowski, Chad Patrick, Brandon Sproat and Kyle Harrison—will elevate their performances and carry the Crew to a fourth consecutive Central championship. Misiorowski has the ability to become an NL Cy Young contender with his 31.9% strikeout rate, which is nearly 50% better than the MLB average. The key for Misiorowski will be his control, as he walked 11.4% of hitters as a rookie, a full three percentage points worse than the MLB average. He did have a nice opponent batting average of .214.

Patrick feels like the most stable of these four, so simply repeating last year's 3.53 FIP and improving his .248 opponent batting average would suffice. Sproat has the potential to be surprising. He was very good from a metrics point of view in his four-game MLB debut with the New York Mets, not only limiting hard contact but also inducing groundballs. That fits into the Crew's defensive scheme very well.

But the biggest step will be taken by Harrison. Acquired from the Boston Red Sox in the six-player Caleb Durbin deal, Harrison unveiled a kick-change late last year and took another step with it this spring, notching eight strikeouts in his first spring outing. That pitch will turn into a monster for the left-hander, who will finish behind only Misiorowski on the club in strikeouts. All of this by the young starters will also invigorate veteran Brandon Woodruff.

Jackson Chourio becomes a superstar

Jackson Chourio has had a very nice first two years, becoming the youngest player in MLB history with back-to-back 20-homer, 20-stolen base seasons. His slash lines have been remarkably similar, going .275/.327/.464 as a rookie to .270/.308/.463 in his sophomore season.

But there is more to unlock in Chourio. He has a quick bat and speed that reminds many of Ronald Acuña Jr. He also plays with the joy of a Julio Rodríguez. Dreaming on Chourio being a 30-30 player isn't hard. But what if Chourio ramped up his game to 35 homers and 40 stolen bases? That would also come with taking his batting average up to the .290 or .300 level. Chourio has shown more discipline this spring in drawing walks, which will force pitchers to attack him more, leading to more hits and being able to utilize his speed on the basepaths.

Chourio has an electric smile and talent to match. It is time to put that on display for all of MLB to see. Hopefully, his hand injury will be only a brief and unimportant setback on that journey.

Garrett Mitchell plays 145 games

The wait for the Garrett Mitchell breakthrough has been agonizing, because the reason he hasn't been on the field is for what feels like a series of unrelated injuries. But 2026 is the year in which Mitchell avoids any health issues and more than doubles the number of games he has played in his first three-plus seasons with the Brewers (141).

The center fielder with the sweet swing can be a dynamic force for the Brewers with his power and speed combination. In 2024, when he played in a career-high 69 games, he hit eight homers and stole 11 bases. That would put him around a 20-20 pace if he played in 145 games and hits in the .275 range. Combine that with what Chourio and William Contreras can do offensively, and the Brewers will be lighting up scoreboards around MLB this year.

The Brewers won't win the Central because ...

Brandon Woodruff's shoulder falls apart

It gives me no pleasure to write this. Yet, it is the thought that every one of us has as Brandon Woodruff begins 2026 with the Brewers. The sturdy right-hander hasn't had a full spring training, only making two starts and going five innings as he makes his way back from the strained right lat that knocked him out of commission in mid-September.

The Brewers signaled early in spring training that Woodruff was going to be slow-played this season, not emphasizing getting him to full speed for Opening Day. Instead, they're making sure (as much as they can) that he will be around for Game 162 and the postseason. Of course, the lat injury followed the right shoulder surgery (anterior capsule) he had at the end of the 2023 season and which kept him out all of 2024. His 2025 debut was delayed by other injuries, including being drilled by a comebacker in a minor-league rehab game.

While he deserves a much better ending considering his performance history, his season, probably his final one in Milwaukee, will come to an end early as his right shoulder gives out one more time. 

Brice Turang and Sal Frelick regress offensively

One of the keys to the Crew's offense in 2026 was that second baseman Brice Turang and right fielder Sal Frelick, both 2024 Gold Glove winners, were no longer black holes with the bat. Turang, in particular, has shown remarkable progress at the plate in each of the last two seasons.

Turang jumped from .218 as a rookie in 2023 to .254 in 2024 and up to .288 last year—not to mention the late-season power surge he experienced with 10 blasts in August and six homers in 2023 and seven in 2024. He finished with 18 in 2025.

Frelick, meanwhile, has gone from .246 to .259 to .288. While not as dramatic as Turang's climb, the growth of both offensively was why the Brewers clicked last year. But if Turang goes back to hitting single-digits in home runs and he and Frelick drop down to .260 or less, the Crew's offense will be in trouble in 2026.

Luis Rengifo is a bust at third base

If things go right for the Brewers, they just need Luis Rengifo to be himself in 2026. They don't need him to shoulder the burden of the offense, just match his career slash line of .250/.307/.382 with maybe 10 homers. That was close to the output of Durbin last year.

But Rengifo has played more often at second base than third base in his career, and he will be at the hot corner only with the Crew. Last year, he had a career-high 76 appearances at third, as well as 74 at second. At third, Rengifo had -5 Defensive Runs Saved, which ranked 166th out of 176 MLB third basemen.

He had a poor season at the plate last year with the Los Angeles Angels, slashing .238/.287/.335 and striking out 19.2% of the time. While that strikeout rate is just a bit worse than the MLB average, it was his highest since going down on strikes 20% of the time in 2021. Rengifo struggled this spring, hitting .244 (11-for-45) while hitting three homers and driving in five. If he struggles to the point of needing to release him, that could pave the way for Jett Williams to possibly come up—but a lot of damage could be done before then, and the NL Central is unforgiving.