4 Keys to Brewers' NLCS Matchup with Los Angeles Dodgers

Well folks, they finally did it. For the first time since 2018, the Brewers won a playoff series. It was far from easy, and they won by a narrow margin of just two runs in the final game, but it was a victory—and a massively cathartic one. Unfortunately, the postseason waits for no man. The team’s journey to their first-ever World Series title is just getting started. Now that the Cubs are out of the way, what should the Brewers keep an eye out for when playing against the defending World Series champions?

The Dodgers Dig The Long Ball, And Hard Contact
Over the course of the regular season, the Dodgers hit 244 home runs (2nd in MLB). This makes sense, given that five of their players hit 20 or more homers and one of them hit 55 (while also somehow pitching to a 2.87 ERA). Their lineup is full of power threats, and they seem to have brought that strength with them to their six postseason games so far. Three of their players (Teoscar Hernández, Mookie Betts, and Tommy Edman) are slugging over .500 this October.

The Brewers’ pitching staff struggled with giving up hard contact throughout the Division Series, notably giving up nine home runs in total, four of which came in the first inning. This was often the result of throwing too many waste pitches and getting into bad counts, giving Cubs hitters an (arguably unearned) advantage. To their credit, the Brewers did manage to get past a star-studded Chicago lineup, but the Dodgers have an even more imposing group of bats. Although they’ve been cold so far, making similar mistakes to Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, and Freddie Freeman will be punished even more severely.

The Dodgers’ Rotation Has Been Dominant
The Brewers did a fantastic job of attacking Chicago’s starting pitchers, with the exception of Jameson Taillon. They took an aggressive approach against both Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, and even punished Colin Rea just enough in Game 5. However, Los Angeles has posted the best postseason starting pitching numbers. Over 35 ⅔ innings, they’ve combined for a 2.02 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. This is thanks to Blake Snell, who struck out 18 hitters over his two starts; and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has given up just three earned runs in his 10 ⅔ innings. As a second line of defense, the Dodgers’ defense has been just as elite, accumulating 67 Defensive Runs Saved this season (3rd in MLB). 

The Brewers have taken advantage of their lineup’s ability to make contact, put the ball in play, and embrace the chaos. They only struck out 1,266 times in the regular season (5th in MLB), and getting runners on base has been their offensive bread and butter. Despite the fielding capabilities of Los Angeles, Milwaukee has already proven they can outplay a strong defensive squad in the Cubs, who actually had more DRS (84) than the Dodgers by a comfortable margin.

In a classic test of unstoppable force vs. immovable object, Milwaukee will have to be at their best if they want to play their brand of baseball against the best run prevention Magic Johnson’s money can buy. 

The Bullpen Gap Is Trevor Megill-Sized
While Los Angeles has a fearsome rotation, the same can’t be said about their relief unit. In a season full of late-inning meltdowns, Dodgers relievers combined for a 4.27 ERA (20th in MLB) and 27 blown saves. Ten of these were credited to Tanner Scott, who was swapped out of the NLDS roster due to injury and will not return for the NLCS, but even with this weak link removed, there are still plenty of vulnerable arms for Milwaukee to take advantage of. With the exception of Roki Sasaki, many of the Dodgers’ other options have had their own struggles this October.

On the other hand, only three Brewers (Robert Gasser, Jared Koenig, Jacob Misiorowski) have given up any earned runs while pitching in relief this postseason, a result that matches up with the bullpen's combined ERA of 3.63 (6th in MLB) this season. 

The Cubs bullpen did an excellent job of shutting down the Brewers' offense when they were deployed, but their arms are far more consistent than what the Dodgers have been able to muster all year. There may be a few roster changes heading into the first game of the Championship Series, but without a lot of great options to begin with, Milwaukee could and should end up doing most of their damage after the starter has been taken out. This is all the more reason to take longer at-bats and drive up the pitch count as quickly as possible.

Managing The Pitching Workload Could Make Or Break This Postseason Run
Pat Murphy got pretty creative with the way he managed his arms in the Division Series. He tried to spread the wealth as best he could, with only Freddy Peralta pitching more than seven innings total across the five games. He relied heavily on the endurance of Aaron Ashby and Chad Patrick, who each appeared in four games, and ultimately, the Brewers won the war of pitching attrition against the Cubs.

However, seven-game series are a little different. If Milwaukee had to play even one more game, they may have been up the creek without a paddle, even with these extra rest days conveniently inserted after what seemed like every game. For the Dodgers, asking players like Snell, Yamamoto, and Glasnow to throw six or seven quality innings is more plausible than trying to get the same out of the Brewers’ rotation. Will Jose Quintana and Gasser be forced to take on more responsibility? How will Quinn Priester bounce back from his tough postseason debut? 

Ideally, the Brewers earn an easy-breezy four-game sweep, but more realistically, it’ll be a competitive contest that could go the distance. Their pitching alignment isn’t nearly as straightforward as it is for their well-financed opponent, but this team of Above-Average Joes has the right tools to get it done if they play their cards right.