A Rested William Contreras Is Back To Punishing Pitchers

We can almost break William Contreras' season down into three segments, with total and utter dominance in the first six weeks, followed by a heavy slump over the next two months. Still, he’s been under the radar effectively since the All-Star break, and it may be coming at just the right time. With Christian Yelich out for the foreseeable future, the Milwaukee Brewers were in dire need of some offensive production from their more experienced contributors. William Contreras has done just that.

There’s a genuine possibility that Contreras has been struggling with injuries during the middle part of the season, with whispers about a damaged finger coinciding with an incredible stretch of 64 straight games to start the season, most of which involved catching behind the plate, taking its toll on him. He was wearing a splint on his finger during the All-Star game festivities, and combined with the workload; it wasn’t entirely surprising to see him slump; however, it was a surprise to see the significance of that slump. He was swinging more often, going to the opposite field with less regularity, and not being selective enough with the pitches he was targeting.

As a result, he hit a lot of weak ground balls and lost almost all the power production he showed in the first six weeks. Still, fascinatingly, he may be performing better “under the hood” now than in that initial hot stretch. 

William Contreras has always been able to hit the ball hard. And often. The drawback for him is similar to that of Christian Yelich in that he quite regularly uses that prime exit velocity to dig deep holes in the infield dirt and hit a ton of ground balls. Now, average launch angle isn’t an entirely reliable statistic because it could equate a pop-up and a negative launch angle as perfect on average. Contreras’ sweet spot rate is lower now than in that early part of the season. However, note the spread of positive average launch angles, and you can see he’s lifting the ball considerably better across the strike zone and in particular in the middle third:

Combined with the increased exit velocities we’ve seen from Contreras since the All-Star break, it’s tough not to notice how much better he’s looked. With just a few innings at the All-Star game, he effectively got off his feet for four out of the five days the Brewers had off and has been getting rested considerably more since the break with the Brewers using Gary Sanchez and Eric Haase more regularly to take him out of the lineup. The mental break, more than the physical one, seems big as much of the improvement comes down to swing decisions, especially in two-strike counts.

Everybody in the league knows Contreras is a ground ball machine, and that’s especially true if you locate in the bottom third of the strike zone. If and when he puts it in the air, he’ll access serious damage, but as you can see, below that bottom of the zone is a fantastic way to mitigate any of that power:

A ground ball rate of over 60% is far, far too easy for pitchers to get out of jail with, and during his rough stretch, Contreras was swinging prodigiously in the bottom third and giving up cheap outs. Not so since the All-Star break:

As you can see, there’s almost no red at all in that bottom third over the last month, and it’s a big reason why he’s not giving up those cheap outs anymore. In terms of results, in hitter’s counts, he’s slugging .818 since the All-Star break compared to a measly .439 in the two months prior. Some of that is down to poor batted-ball fortunes, but targeting the right pitches to swing has definitely been a factor in his recent success.

Having a healthy, rested, and productive William Contreras will be vital for the remainder of the Brewers season, as much as he wants to be a part of each and every game. Quality rather than quantity has to be the aim for the all-star, especially with the Brewers tightening their grip on a playoff berth in recent days. It would seem that there’s a direct correlation between his productivity and the time off, and it’s shining through at the moment. 

What do you think of Contreras over the last month? Do you think he can sustain it through September and possibly October? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!