Aaron Ashby Deserves His Flowers After Brewers' NLDS Win

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For four games, they had to grind and gut it out, but the Milwaukee Brewers are heading to the NLCS for a second straight year. While there were plenty of big moments throughout the series, left-hander Aaron Ashby deserves particular praise for the role he played in getting Milwaukee past the San Diego Padres. Ashby had a terrific regular season, posting a 3.12 ERA with 116 strikeouts over 89 1/3 innings. That impressive performance carried over to the NLDS, where you could argue no single Brewer had a bigger impact on the series than he did.

Let’s go back to Game 1 on Saturday. The game was tied 2-2 in the top of the fifth, when Antonio Senzatela entered in relief of Jacob Misiorowski and quickly allowed some traffic on the bases. With left-handed hitter Jackson Merrill coming to the plate, Pat Murphy decided to call upon Ashby earlier than he normally would. The southpaw delivered. He retired Merrill to end the scoring threat, then got the next four Padres he faced before Murphy turned to Abner Uribe in the seventh. It was an impressive stretch in a tight game, and it gave Milwaukee exactly what they needed, in a situation where one mistake could have changed the complexion of the series.

Ashby wasn’t finished making an impact. Fast-forward not even 24 hours, and the left-hander was back on the mound in the eighth inning of Game 2, with Milwaukee trailing by a run. Merrill greeted him with a ground-ball single, and Samad Taylor followed with a bunt single to put two runners on with nobody out. Suddenly, San Diego had an opportunity to break the game open and put itself in a commanding position in the series.

Instead, Ashby did what good relievers do: he found a way to get himself out of trouble. Xander Bogaerts worked the count full, forcing Ashby to dig deep with two runners aboard. The Brewers' left-hander responded by reaching back for a triple-digit sinker on the inner third of the plate, freezing Bogaerts for out number one. He then got Freddy Fermin to ground into an inning-ending double play, escaping the jam without allowing a run. That sequence turned out to be a massive moment in the series, considering what later transpired in Game 2 courtesy of Jackson Chourio. Milwaukee came away with a dramatic win, and Ashby's ability to keep San Diego from adding to their lead held the door open for the Brewers' late rally. Had he failed to escape that inning, the entire series could have unfolded differently. Instead, Ashby kept the deficit manageable and gave his teammates a chance to make something happen.

He didn't pitch at all in Game 3, but he sure did in Game 4. After Robert Gasser gave the Crew four solid innings, Ashby was the first man out of the bullpen, with the Brewers looking to protect their one-run lead. He struck out Taylor, before getting Fernando Tatis Jr. and Merrill to ground out, needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. With the heart of San Diego's order coming up in the sixth, Ashby was clearly staying in the game. Manny Machado grounded out to start the inning. Ty France drew a walk, but Ashby responded by getting the very next batter to ground into an inning-ending double play, putting another zero on the board.

At this point, Ashby had already worked beyond 20 pitches through two innings, and Murphy hadn't asked any of his relievers to go deeper than that throughout the series. But the left-hander wasn't done. He returned for the seventh and worked around a two-out walk, striking out two more Padres to finish another scoreless inning. It was the first time all season that he had thrown three innings in an appearance, and it was the only time in the NLDS that a Brewers reliever recorded more than five outs in a single outing. Ashby recorded nine.

In a series wherein Milwaukee's bullpen was asked to navigate some difficult situations, that length was incredibly valuable. He didn't just get a couple of important outs or bridge the gap to the back end of the bullpen. He gave Murphy three full innings of effective work, keeping San Diego off the board while taking pressure off the rest of the relief corps.

If there were an MVP of this series, I think it's Ashby. The NLDS could have looked drastically different without his clutch performances, and what makes his work even more impressive is that he delivered in three very different situations. He entered a tie game fairly early in Game 1; escaped a dangerous jam while trailing in Game 2; and gave Milwaukee three strong innings in a series-clinching Game 4. Those aren't easy circumstances for any reliever, and Ashby handled each of them about as well as Milwaukee could have hoped.

By Championship Win Probability Added, Chourio (6.1%) has Ashby (4.9%) beat in this series, but that's purely because Chourio came through in one moment. According to Baseball Reference's Championship Leverage Index, Chourio's at-bat against Mason Miller in Game 2 was 171 times as important as the average plate appearance, in terms of its impact on the chances that the Brewers would win the World Series. Ashby didn't have any showdown so pivotal. However, he faced 19 batters in plate appearances with a Championship LI ranging from 10 to 41, and the Padres went 2-for-17 with two walks in those spots.

What's also becoming increasingly clear is the level of extreme trust that Murphy has in Ashby. Whether the Brewers need a key out against a left-handed hitter, someone to escape a late-inning jam, or a reliever capable of covering multiple innings, Ashby has shown he can handle the assignment. With the Los Angeles Dodgers waiting in the NLCS, Milwaukee will need more of that.

The Brewers face a much different challenge against Los Angeles, and their bullpen will once again be a major part of the equation. Ashby's regular-season numbers were impressive, and his NLDS performance only reinforced his value. If Milwaukee is going to keep this postseason run alive, he'll have to keep up one of the great reliever seasons in the history of a team who's had more than their share of good ones.