Aaron Ashby is Back With the Brewers. Can His Restored Velocity Keep Him There?

Aaron Ashby has had a less-than-ideal past two years. After missing all of 2023 due to serious issues with his left shoulder, he came back this season as a diminished version of his former self. His velocity was down across the board, an understandable side effect of an extended layoff and rehabilitation process, and aside from two shaky starts, he has spent his 2024 with Triple-A Nashville. He was even less consistent in the minors, and across 84 total innings with the Sounds, he posted an 8.04 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Those are eye-popping numbers, but not in the good way.

To be fair, his time with the Sounds became more of a long-term rehabilitation assignment than anything. In late May, he had already pitched nearly 40 innings to an 8.10 ERA, but Nashville manager Rick Sweet noted that he was steadily improving, gradually refining his previously nonexistent command and working back up to his pre-injury velocity. Sweet also noted that shoulder injuries are notoriously tricky and hard to come back from, so this rough patch wasn’t totally unexpected.

In August, Ashby finally started to resemble the top prospect he was before injury struck. In his final six games with the Sounds, he pitched eight innings in relief and gave up just two earned runs. His strikeout rate spiked to 48.3% and his K/BB was sitting at 5.0. The biggest reason for this improvement seems to be big steps forward on his sinker. Before his August renaissance, the pitch was sitting right in that lovely “meatball” part of the zone where opposing hitters have the most success and make the best contact.

Since regaining his feel, it’s now closer to the edges of the strike zone, limiting batted-ball quality.

Furthermore, his velocity is back up. Prior to Aug. 6, his sinker averaged 93.9 MPH and topped out at 96.7. Since then, it’s averaging 95.5 and topping out at 98.4, numbers more in line with what he was doing pre-injury.

His slider and curveball are also on an upward trend, especially as out pitches. Of the 15 total strikeouts he had in the aforementioned span, eight came against his slider and five came against his curveball.

All of this was on display in his first major-league outing since Jun. 5. In a two-inning relief appearance against the Oakland Athletics, he threw 31 total pitches, 18 of which were strikes. He gave up no hits, no earned runs, and a lone walk, and he struck out two batters. His sinker remained his primary pitch, comfortably sitting around 96 MPH and topping out at 98.2. More importantly, the command had clearly improved, peppering the outside of the zone and earning him five called strikes.

He only threw three sliders, but was deploying the curveball to great effect, earning three called strikes and a whiff.

Ashby’s enticing upside as a pitcher is why the Brewers extended him into 2027, with two more team options. He’s a lefty with significant potential, and while it may be difficult to discern that fact from quick glances at his numbers on Baseball Reference, the deeper details point to him being a potential powerhouse arm.

The larger question about his exact role on the pitching staff still remains unclear, however. Is he at his best in short bursts coming out of the bullpen? Will he ever be able to replicate the success he’s having when having to stretch out to five or six innings of work? It’s hard to make that call right now, but at just over 26 years old, Ashby is having enough success to keep himself in the big-league mix into October.