Biggest Matchup Advantage in Brewers-Mets Series Will Be Brewers' Stolen Bases, and Pressure

The Milwaukee Brewers have used their running game to eke out advantages throughout the season, and it’s been vital to their success. Christian Yelich may not be here, but Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins, Sal Frelick and even (somehow) Willy Adames have been stealing at will. They haven’t just attempted a lot, they’ve also been incredibly efficient, with a season-high 91.5% stolen base efficiency in September.

When the New York Mets come back to town for the Wild Card Series Tuesday afternoon, they'll provide an appealing target for this pack of marauders. The combination of Francisco Alvarez and Luis Torrens have struggled, catching just 25% of runners this season. Admittedly, that's still better than the league average this year, but it's bad enough to make attempting steals a winning proposition, as long as you stick to your capable runners. Alvarez has a cannon of an arm, but that hasn’t translated to brilliant control of the running game this year. His accuracy is scattershot and his pop times, while eye-popping at the high end, are inconsistent. Meanwhile, Torrens struggles mightily. A lot of New York's pitchers have slow movements to the plate, further exacerbating the issue. Plenty of bases are there for the taking by the Crew.

For an offense that goes through power slumps like the Brewers' does, getting runners into scoring position will be essential. They can move runners up with bunts or the hit-and-run, but it's the steal attempt that best suits their style--thanks, especially, to what it does to opposing pitchers' heads.

The Brewers offensive profile can be captured in one word: pressure. They want to constantly rush and overwhelm pitchers, giving them more to think about than just their current at-bat, and the numbers bear out an interesting trend.

Pressure ramps up as ducks get on the pond. Nerves start to rise; the crowd gets loud. With a man on second base and first base open, the Brewers lead all playoff teams with a 15.1% walk rate. That open base seems to result in more lax command from pitchers with a “base open,” and Quintin Berry's boys have sought to create that situation all year, as a way to increase that pressure. You’ll notice the Brewers running regularly with the count in the hitter's favor, which few teams do. No other club has attempted as many steals in two- and three-ball counts as Milwaukee, at 67--and they've been successful over 85% of the time. If running in those spots isn't resulting in an undue number of outs and is distracting the pitcher or ratcheting up the likelihood of a walk, that pressure is rising sharply every time they take off.

Having those runners on base is where the Brewers have thrived this season. The more they get on, the better they have produced at the plate:

Finding ways to eke out an extra base runner has allowed the Brewers to manipulate the fine margins of their performance, and the ability to steal as they have has positively affected this in a variety of ways outside of merely having a runner in scoring position. They’re pressuring a pitcher into mistakes when they get on, especially if it's one of their many speedsters taking a station.

On a more simplistic note, FanGraphs calculates the run value of a stolen base as around 0.3 runs. The effect of a caught stealing is -0.6 runs. The Brewers have averaged three stolen bases per game against the Mets this season and, without getting caught, that’s equated to almost a run per game in statistical estimations. Add in whatever concomitant benefits they accrue by starting runners, or threatening to, and they're deriving huge value from that aspect of the contest.

In a playoff scenario that could be decided by the finest of margins, the value of the stolen base may be the difference needed to propel this Milwaukee franchise into the Division Series. They drew the perfect first opponent to deploy their favorite tool.