Brewers 1, Cardinals 18: Let’s Just Forget This Ever Happened

Box Score

Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta - 5.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 4 K, 94 pitches, 53 strikes (56.4%)
Home Runs: None 
Top 3 WPA: Rowdy Tellez (.085), Jesse Winker (.045), Christian Yelich (.012) 
Bottom 3 WPA: Freddy Peralta (-.257), William Contreras (-.174), Willy Adames (-.077) 

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Freddy Can’t Find His Spots
Even though we’re barely more than a month into the season, it feels like we’ve seen it all from Freddy Peralta. We’ve seen lockdown strikeout prowess and great stuff, and we’ve also seen things like his performance Monday against the St. Louis Cardinals. They pulled no punches, scoring three runs in the first inning on a leadoff walk by Lars Nootbaar, a single by Nolan Gorman, and a home run by Nolan Arenado. 

In the second, we saw further control issues. After a single by Tommy Edman, a wild pitch allowed him to move to second base and then score on a Paul Goldschmidt double, putting the Cardinals up 4-0. While he was able to keep the third, fourth, and fifth inning scoreless, he hit Paul DeJong with a pitch and conceded a single to Tommy Edman before finally being replaced by Bryse Wilson.

In a postgame interview, Peralta admitted that he felt completely off, saying that he “didn’t have anything” and that he struggled immensely with fastball command. On the bright side, it seems like more of a transient issue and less of an indicator of a larger problem, such as potential injury. 

When Peralta departed the mound in the sixth inning, St. Louis already had a 4-0 lead and a 96.4% chance to win the game. Little did we know that the worst was yet to come.

What Do I Even Say?
By the time the final out was recorded, this game had become a bloodbath. What started as a four-run deficit somehow mutated into an 18-1 final in favor of St. Louis. I could sit here and write about how each run was scored, but it feels futile. After Wilson gave up three consecutive hits and four runs in the sixth inning, the Cardinals' win probability had grown to 99.7%, and Milwaukee had yet to plate a single runner.

It didn’t seem like things could get any worse, but that’s when things always get worse. Those who take a quick peek at the box score will see a ten-run eighth inning for the Cardinals and that Gus Varland was responsible for nine earned runs on a night on which he recorded only two outs. 

To illustrate how brutal this beatdown was, Varland’s WPA for the game was a measly -.001, meaning that whether he had given up zero runs or 20, the result likely would’ve been the same. By the time he took the ball, the game was effectively over, and additional runs weren’t for insurance, they were for punishment. It seemed as if all of the pent-up frustrations of the season so far were released at one time on the unsuspecting Brewers. 

Offense? What Offense?
Milwaukee did score one run, the result of three consecutive singles by Joey Wiemer, Owen Miller, and Jesse Winker. The result of these three hits combined? A WPA swing of 0.5% in favor of the Brewers. But what was the lineup going to do anyway, score 19 runs? 

The lineup could piece together just six hits and three walks in what was ultimately a futile effort to play a competitive baseball game.

What’s Next? 
The Brewers will try to wipe this game from their memories as Wade Miley and Jordan Montgomery have a duel of the lefties in the second game of the three-game series. The silver lining to this game was that statistically, it’s very unlikely to happen again…right?

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet