Brewers 2, Blue Jays 7: Birds Take The First Round

Box Score

Starting Pitcher: Adrian Houser - 4.1 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 95 pitches, 57 strikes (60.0%)
Home Runs: William Contreras (6)
Top 3 WPA: William Contreras (.201), Andruw Monasterio (.028), Bryse Wilson (.016) 
Bottom 3 WPA: Adrian Houser (-.503), Darin Ruf (-.066), Joey Wiemer (-.041) 

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Houser Has A Rough Night
Heading into the game, Adrian Houser had impressive numbers. In a small sample size of 20 innings, he had given up just five runs, good for a 2.25 ERA. Tuesday was really his first bad outing of the season, giving up four runs in the first inning alone. 

Aside from giving up 11 total hits, Houser also made some small errors in his start--including a wild pitch that allowed George Springer to advance to scoring position, as well as this mistake while attempting to cover first base on a ground ball.

Based on Statcast data, it seemed like he just wasn’t able to get his sinker to work properly, a horrible outcome given his usage of it on 37.7% of his pitches. Of the 38 sinkers he threw, here’s the breakdown of their results.

More hits than total strikes is probably not what you want to see from a starter. The strikes he did throw were clearly unable to deceive Toronto batters and were either fouled off or put in play.

The Toronto Blue Jays have been a formidable offensive force this season, ranking third for team batting average at .266. On the bright side, Houser’s troubles came against a very dangerous opponent, and his sample is still too small for us to be able to confidently pass a verdict on his abilities for this season.

As of now, his ERA stands at 4.07, and his WHIP stands at 1.60.

One Inning Of Success, Followed By Eight Innings Of Struggle
After William Contreras hit a two-run home run in the first inning, it seemed like we were off to a great start. With an exit velocity of 105.0 mph and an xBA of .900, it seemed like the jolt needed to start the series strong.

And then, just like all too many games that have occurred this season, the lineup simply became unable to make quality contact, recording just two hits in the remaining eight innings of the game. They were able to draw six walks, only Darin Ruf struck out more than once, but it was obvious that Blue Jays pitching was beating the Milwaukee batters at almost every turn.

Contrary to Toronto’s offensive prowess, the Brewers have the 25th-best team batting average in the major leagues, at .231. Cumulative production at the plate is similarly bad, posting a .688 team OPS that is also 25th-best.

Monasterio Is Here To Play
One of the standout players of the game was rookie Andruw Monasterio. In his first full game in the major leagues, he went 2-3 with a walk. Did I mention it was his birthday? 

Judging a player off of a sample size containing a whopping four ABs is probably meaningless, but given that Willy Adames will be out for a while with a concussion, there seems to be hope that his replacement may be able to fill the big shoes in front of him. 

What’s Next? 
Julio Teheran will face off against Alek Manoah in the second game of the series. Manoah has been uncharacteristically shaky this season, logging a 1-5 record with a 5.53 ERA. His struggles to deal with the new pitch timer and other changes may allow the Brewers to escape with a much-needed win and reignite their offense.  

The NL Central is starting to heat up, as the Brewers currently hold a one-game lead in the over the Pittsburgh Pirates and just a 4.5-game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals, who are in last place.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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