Brewers 4, Rays 8: I Got That Springtime, Springtime Sadness

Box Score

Starting Pitcher: Eric Lauer - 3.0 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 71 pitches, 40 strikes (56.3%)
Home Runs: Owen Miller (2), Brian Anderson (7) 
Top 3 WPA: Brian Anderson (.163), Bryse Wilson (.064), Owen Miller (.027) 
Bottom 3 WPA: Eric Lauer (-.460), Rowdy Tellez (-.062), Jesse Winker (-.056) 

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Lauer Gets Lit Up
Eric Lauer didn’t have a particularly inspiring start Saturday, going just three innings and giving up six earned runs. Most notably, he gave up three home runs, two of which were off of his curveball. The most consequential home run was hit in the bottom of the second by Yandy Diaz and scored three runs, bringing the Rays lead to 4-0. 

With almost the same pitch placement, Lauer gave up another solo shot to Christian Bethancourt in the fourth inning. Both home runs were conceded on hanging curveballs that got stuck on the outside of the zone, perfect conditions for barreled balls and long shots.

Lauer is throwing his curve way too often again this year, in that he's throwing it at all. As Matthew Trueblood wrote back before the start of the season, Lauer's curve just isn't a good pitch. Yet, he's throwing it about 15 percent of the time against righties, apparently afraid to deploy the reshaped slider he developed late in 2022. Last year, opponents slugged .600 on his hook. This season, they're slugging 1.310, which would be hilarious if it didn't hurt so much.

Following a double by Taylor Walls and a single by Manuel Margot to score the Rays’ sixth run, it was decided that Lauer’s day would end early, recording just nine outs in total for the team in his start. His struggles continue, as his ERA climbs to 5.48 and his WHIP rises to 1.52.

The Bullpen Was So Good…Until It Wasn’t
To make up for the abbreviated start, Bryse Wilson tossed three scoreless innings, giving up just two baserunners in total. His Herculean effort gave me and Brewers fans everywhere hope for a potential comeback, especially since the bats were starting to wake up during his innings of relief, scoring some runs and bringing the score to 6-3. Nonetheless, all good things must come to an end.

Jake Cousins would take the mound in the seventh inning and immediately get into trouble. After conceding two singles and a walk, the bases were loaded with just one out recorded. Cousins would walk the next batter, Isaac Paredes, and then walk Taylor Walls to give the Rays another two runs, pushing the score to 8-3. After two hits, three walks, and a clear decline in pitch quality, Counsell made the decision to replace Cousins with Trevor Megill who would finally strikeout Manuel Margot to escape trouble and end the inning.

How rough was Cousins’s outing, exactly? In his one inning of relief, he threw just three fewer pitches than Wilson’s three innings of relief.

Are RBI Popups The New Wave?
All but one of Milwaukee’s runs were scored by home runs, a third inning solo shot from Owen MIller and a 2-RBI shot from Brian Anderson in the seventh inning. 

Miller’s home run was hit to left field at an exit velocity of 102.9 mph and a total distance 377 feet, good enough to be a home run in every ballpark except PNC Park and Oriole Park. He extended his hit-streak to 12 games.

Anderson’s home run was a true no-doubter to left field, going 408 feet with an exit velocity of 102 mph. According to Statcast, this would be a home run in all 30 ballparks.

But by far the most impressive RBI of today’s game was Christian Yelich’s RBI popup. After a shallow fly ball that caused the entirety of the Rays infield to converge, confusion amongst Tampa’s players caused it to drop on the grass harmlessly. This allowed Yelich to reach first base and Brice Turang to score the Brewer’s fourth run.

Jesse Winker Is My Favorite Brewer  
Winker has always been a feisty individual, and while he is still looking to return to the prowess at plate that he had while on the Cincinnati Reds, he’s always been one to speak his mind. Today was no different. 

After a questionable pitch clock violation that had him start the at-bat with an 0-1 count, Winker argued that the only reason that he wasn’t in the batter’s box is because the Rays pitching coach was taking a walk to the mound. After striking out, he reignited the discussion in a calm, cordial manner and was subsequently ejected.

It seemed like an unfair ejection to me, but what are your thoughts?

What’s Next? 
Freddy Peralta will make the final start of the Rays series, as the Brewers look to avoid a sweep. Their offense continues to lag behind in the month of May, coming in 25th in terms of team OPS at .677. On the bright side, the team’s pitching this month is currently ranked 10th in the major leagues with a team ERA of 4.06.

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