Brewers 6, Rockies 9: Heartbreak At High Altitude

Box Score

Starting Pitcher: Wade Miley - 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 90 pitches, 59 strikes (65.6%)
Home Runs: Christian Yelich (4), Rowdy Tellez (9), Tyrone Taylor (1)
Top 3 WPA: Wade Miley (.100), Brian Anderson (.063), Christian Yelich (.063) 
Bottom 3 WPA: Peter Strzelecki (-.332), Willy Adames (-.147), Joel Payamps (-.140) 

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Miley Goes A Tad Too Long
Wade Miley started strong, pitching his first six innings without giving up a run. He’s been great at inducing soft contact, with 10 of his batted balls in today’s game having an exit velocity under 75 miles per hour. Miley has never been a power pitcher; his highest season-average fastball velocity clocked in at 91.4 mph when he was with the Orioles in 2017. 

To address this, he’s been using a cutter more frequently, which averages just 86 mph. He trades strikeouts for ground balls and shallow pop-ups, which explains his typical low-strikeout stat line. His changeup is also quite nifty, and relies more on movement than a velocity difference, since its average velocity of 82 mph is just 4 mph slower than his cutter.

Unfortunately, it seemed that he was kept in the game a little too long. When he took the mound in the seventh, he immediately gave up three consecutive hits - two singles and a double. Ezequiel Tovar’s double batted in the Rockies’ first two runs and promptly led Craig Counsell to replace Miley with Joel Payamps before he was able to log a single out in the inning. 

Payamps Struggles…
If I were to sum up the second half of today’s game with a single action, it would be a heavy sigh beneath a furrowed brow. Joel Payamps had a chaotic relief appearance, inheriting a single base runner and then giving up a single to Brenton Doyle, which put Rockies runners on the corners. Then he allegedly balked. 

Allegedly is probably the most accurate way to describe the call, since it was at best an extremely strict interpretation of the balk rule, but it allowed Tovar to score the Rockies third run. A sacrifice fly by Elias Diaz would score Doyle and tie the game at four runs each. 

…But Strzelecki Struggles Even Harder
Before this game, Peter Strzelecki had a 1.23 ERA and a WHIP of 0.886. By the end of his eighth inning relief appearance, his ERA rose to 4.20 and his WHIP to 1.13. So what happened? Let’s take a look:

1. Kris Bryant struck out.
2. C.J. Cron hit a single.
3. Mike Moustakas hit a double.
4. Harold Castro hit a single to score Ryan McMahon, Cron’s pinch runner, and Moustakas. The Rockies are now up 6-4.
5. Ezequiel Tovar is hit by a pitch.
6. Brenton Doyle walks, loading the bases.
7. Strzelecki is replaced by Tyson Miller
8. Elias Diaz hits a sacrifice fly (again?) to score Castro. The Rockies are now up 7-4.
9. Charlie Blackmon hit a single to score Tovar and Doyle. The Rockies are now up 9-4.
10. Jurickson Profar lines out, finally ending the suffering.

Of the three hits that Strzelecki surrendered, two were on his changeup and one was on his slider. He also seemed to have trouble controlling his four-seam fastball, with seven balls and zero called strikes. 

Well At Least We Hit The Ball, Right Guys?
The cheesehead made three pate appearances, as Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez, and Tyrone Taylor all hit home runs in this game. A Brian Anderson triple followed by a Victor Caratini RBI single would bring the lead to 4-0 and for a moment, it seemed that Milwaukee would avoid being swept.

Brian Anderson’s triple had seemingly conflicting batted ball data, having an xBA of just .100 but also ending up as a home run in 27/30 ballparks, the three exceptions being Fenway Park, Coors Field, and Kauffman Stadium.

After the bullpen began to collapse, the lineup made a valiant effort to win back the game. Brice Turang led off the ninth with a walk, then advanced to second base on defensive indifference. Yelich scored him with a single, before scoring a run himself on a single by Jesse Winker.

The Brewers had closed the deficit to three runs and Winker was on base. In an ideal world, Adames would’ve gotten on base, Tellez would have tied it, and then Anderson would have hit the go-ahead home run. But much to the chagrin of Brewers fans everywhere, Adames instead hit a weak ground ball, ending what should’ve been a straightforward victory with the final twist of defeat's blade.

What’s Next?
The Brewers are traveling to the Bay Area to face off against the San Francisco Giants. Corbin Burnes will make his seventh start of the season against lefty Sean Manaea and the team as a whole will look to snap this recent four-game skid. On the bright side, the Pirates have also been losing consistently, so the Brewers are still just 1.5 games behind the current division leader and three games ahead of the Cubs. 

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