It's Time For The Brewers To Extend Freddy Peralta (Again)

In February 2020, the Brewers signed 23-year-old pitcher Freddy Peralta to a five-year contract worth $15.5 million and two additional option years that could bring the total to $30 million. At the time, Peralta had two years of service and demonstrated some tantalizing, if inconsistent, skills. Some wondered if he was best used as a reliever.

Since then, Peralta has emerged as a steady starting pitcher for the Brewers, and the team’s de facto ace with the trading of Corbin Burnes and injury to Brandon Woodruff.

Peralta missed nearly half of the 2022 season but has demonstrated electrifying stuff and quality numbers and even made an All-Star appearance in 2021. 

Is Peralta an ace pitcher? No. Is he a good one? Yes. When he is on, he can dominate. Unfortunately, he walks too many batters and doesn’t go deep in games. No matter what, on a team going through many injuries, he is critical to the club's success. But what does the future hold?

The Crew has options on Peralta for 2025 and 2026 at $8 million annually - sure to be picked up, barring injury or some other catastrophic event.

I don’t think there is any question that Peralta has outplayed his contract. The question now is, do the Brewers strike early and extend Peralta - and, in the process, kick him some more money?

Now, we have to be clear: the Brewers don’t have to do this. I’ve seen some concerns that Peralta might not age well due to his smaller stature; he’s six foot tall and weighs 200 pounds. And Peralta has had some injuries so there is definite risk involved.

That aside, Peralta just turned 28 earlier this month, and his contract runs through his age 30 season. If the club could tack on 2-3 more years of control is it worth the gamble?

Let’s keep in mind that if Peralta hits free agency in two years, he’ll probably be worth something in the range of $20 million annually based upon deals struck by Marcus Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez. But we probably need to add a little more due to the inflation of salaries.

So, what would an extension look like if the Brewers made such an offer?

Here’s the idea:

Offer Peralta a two-year extension with an option for a third year. The two extra years are worth $15 million each, with a $10 million signing bonus. The option year is worth $20 million with a $4 million buyout. That’s a minimum value of $44 million. 

As for the signing bonus, the Brewers could pay $5 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively. This boosts Peralta’s salary to $13 million for 2025-2026 and $15 million for 2027-28. 

The incentive for Milwaukee is to keep Freddy on the roster for four more years at a reasonable rate. For Peralta, it offers an insurance policy in case he is injured - ensuring him $60 million over the next four years versus the $16 million he has coming to him over the next two years (assuming Milwaukee picks up those options). 

The extension may not be a 4-5 year deal worth $20 million per year, similar to what he might receive as a free agent. But it is $44 million extra. That’s nothing to sneeze at.

And let’s not forget that any free agent bonanza requires Peralta to keep performing at a high level over the next two and a half years. There’s a risk that doesn’t happen.

Of course, all this depends on both parties. The Brewers may know things about Freddy that make them hesitant to extend him beyond his current contract. And Peralta may be hell-bent on getting a big payoff after the 2026 season. He might just laugh at such a proposal. On the other hand, he might be happy to get the money in the bank and not have to stress about his future for a few years.

For the Brewers, locking up Freddy for the next 4-5 years would bring some stability at a position that has been in a constant state of flux of late - and will be for the next few years.