Trevor Megill is Reinventing Himself on the Fly, and it's Working

After his struggles reached their apex in a blown save on April 14, Trevor Megill’s results have flipped for the better. Megill has allowed just one earned run in his last nine outings, picking up four holds and an extra-innings save while settling in as a productive setup man ahead of Abner Uribe.

It hasn’t been a run of favorable luck, either. Megill has been legitimately dominant during this stretch, missing barrels and posting excellent strikeout and walk rates. Most of his major ERA estimators since April 16 are below 2.50.

The turnaround has not come from Megill rediscovering the lost fastball velocity that plagued him in his first several outings. In fact, his velocity has continued to decrease ever so slightly, even at the time of year when he starts rounding into form. His heater averaged 99 mph last May, but it’s at just 96.9 mph this month. Sitting 96-to-98 now looks even more like his new normal than an early-season blip on the radar.

At that velocity, Megill’s fastball remains a magnet for loud contact instead of the overpowering pitch it was when it regularly touched triple digits. It’s performed more reliably during this stretch, though, largely because Megill has used it more strategically.

For starters, Megill has made his pitch mix far less predictable. Here’s how he attacked hitters through that blown save:

Since that outing, Megill has not only decreased his overall fastball usage and thrown more curveballs, but also mixed those pitches more evenly in most count situations. It’s become harder for hitters to pick up on patterns and sit on a certain pitch.

As a fireballing late-inning reliever, Megill has never needed to be a command pitcher. His breakout with the Brewers stemmed mostly from throwing more pitches in the strike zone, not locating them in perfect spots. With reduced velocity, his old approach of trying to throw every pitch down the middle—knowing his fastball would stay true through the zone, while his curveball would drop below the knees—is no longer viable.

Instead, Megill appears to be targeting more specific locations when playing his fastball and curve (which is essentially a short, tight gyrospin slider at this point) off one another. In those early weeks of the season, his command was sporadic, but the middle of the zone still looked like his focal point.

Lately, his location has looked more deliberate. Megill is keeping his fastball around the top of the zone to righties, allowing him to land more in-zone curveballs out of the same tunnel for takes and weak contact. Against lefties, he’s setting up chases on back-foot breaking balls with low fastballs shaded inside.

In addition to throwing more high fastballs, Megill is also backspinning them a bit more, and his release height is slightly higher. Those changes have increased the carry on his heater, improving its induced vertical break from 19.1 inches to 20 inches during this stretch. Small improvements like that can be the difference between a barreled ball and a swing slightly underneath his fastball. Without its best velocity, Megill needed new strategies to keep hitters from timing it up. He’s made some impressive progress on the fly in response to his struggles, allowing him to remain a key piece in the Brewers’ bullpen—for now.