Do The Brewers Have A RISP Problem Or Is It Just A Power Outage?

A .212/.287/.310 line with runners in scoring position will hamper any team’s run-scoring abilities, but the Brewers have one of the better overall offenses in baseball, which presents a bit of a conundrum: Is it just luck, or is there something else going on here? 

The fact is that although a bases-loaded situation that results in no runs is agonizing, it’s equally true that to load the bases requires three players to reach without moving further than one base at a time on average. Whether that be walks, hit-by-pitches, errors, or infield singles, there is an element to the situation where a powerful piece of contact opens up the game during any of those at-bats.

The Brewers lead the league comfortably in batting average on infield contact, and that isn’t going to be enough to drive in a run in most situations. With the bases loaded as an example and the infield in, it can just as easily mandate an easy out at home plate or a double play if the direction isn’t absolutely perfect. 

The Top Of The Order
It’s no coincidence that when the Brewers came out of the blocks red hot, both Christian Yelich and William Contreras were en fuego. Not just in hitting for average and getting on base, but in fact, both were hitting for real power. Contreras had ten extra-base hits in July, while Yelich, pre-injury, was slugging .750. 

In the last 30 days, it’s been a markedly different story, with Yelich having an ISO of just .097 that bests (somehow) William Contreras' .049 mark. For players that hit the ball as consistently hard as these two, it just isn’t the production they need. Remember, the Brewers lineup is constructed with many talents in finding ways to get on base, steal bases, and more, but without that power, it will be difficult to run away with games.

As always with Yelich and Contreras, their power is negated by the regularity with which they pound the ball into the ground. Contreras’ average launch angle has actually been negative over the last 30 days, while Yelich's has been a measly 1.2°. On top of that, Yelich, even in poor spells, has hit the ball on average over 90 mph, but he’s sunk to the same average exit velocity as Andruw Monasterio over the last 30 days at just 89.3 mph. Given the lack of power production of late, it’s fair to say the back may still be hampering him from finding his timing at the plate. It’s always going to come in spurts for him when he’s healthy, and maybe the second half can kick him into gear, but it’s not something you can rely on.

For Contreras, perhaps the All-Star break can’t come soon enough. The Brewers may have overworked their star catcher earlier in the season and allowed him to dictate his playing time too much, with the effect of an inconsistent Gary Sanchez and a weary Contreras that’s helping nobody by this point. In the second half, the Brewers would be wise to be more selective in how they allocate playing time for both of these men, and it may even be a good thing if Contreras doesn’t participate in the All-Star game. Our own Jack Stern recently dived a little deeper into his struggles here.

What about that vaunted middle order?
The Brewers went out of their way this offseason to add some power to their lineup, especially in the middle of the order. Willy Adames has exceeded expectations in some ways and is unlucky not to have four or five more home runs by this point. Past that, though, and some early blazes have diminished in the last month.

Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez may not hit their way on base often, and Hoskins may even be a candidate to get thrown out at first on a hit to the outfield with his post-surgery speed. That’s not their job, however. Instead, they’re supposed to be the big booming bats that carry the Brewers. Willy Adames is the only player in the last 30 days with an ISO of over .200, with the Brewers' next best being Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins, and Brice Turang. If you expected Turang and Perkins to be in the top four at the beginning of the season, I'd likely be calling you out because of the power production of players like Hoskins and Sanchez.

Rhys Hoskins has had a real rough patch since returning from the IL with an expected slash line of .179/.246/.250. He’s looked better contact-wise in recent games, and I think that’s what we have to remember about the likes of Sanchez, Hoskins, and even Adames. They’re going to be streaky hitters with strong performances in bunches that can carry an offense, and if two or three get hot at once, then it spells serious trouble.

Even Jake Bauers has flashed power potential with the sheer volume of elevated balls to the pull side but has found himself in peaks and troughs throughout the season. The middle of the lineup is just simply not hot at this point, but it may not be a concern just yet. All three aforementioned players have shown throughout their careers how they can perform in these hot stretches.

Should There Be A Growing Concern?
In short, no. In longer terms, slugging is a streaky game, and sneaking a ball over the wall or hitting it aerially and hard might vary in result depending on hit locations (i.e., pull side vs. straight away center field), and home runs aren’t common enough to be routine per game. The Brewers are in a cold stretch, that's for sure, but it’s the first time their expected slugging has dipped below league average over a rolling seven-day period for some time this year:

The dip in June is bound to rebound when Hoskins finds some timing again or even from a bunch of other power sources that have the potential to get hot in the second half. Jackson Chourio is looking more and more at home at the plate, Sanchez has shown himself to be clutch in big moments, Yelich and Contreras could rebound at any time, and Jake Bauers and even Joey Ortiz when he elevates the ball.

There are a lot of areas in which the Brewers can find that power, so it’s not a point to call time on their offense this season. With how effectively they scrap their way on base and around the basepaths and sort of return to the power production of April. If that can happen in October, then the Brewers are truly an offense to fear, but until then, they'll need more from the middle of their lineup.