What Are the Brewers Getting in Shortstop Joey Ortiz?

On Thursday night, the Brewers traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles for a return that included two prospects and a Comp A pick in the 2024 draft. One-half of that prospect return was Joey Ortiz, an outstanding defensive infielder ranked 91st in Kiley McDaniel’s recently released top 100 prospects and 63rd in MLB Pipeline’s most recent publication. What does Ortiz offer the Brewers? Let’s dig in.

Ortiz is a slight player. At 5’9", 190 pounds, his gaudy collegiate offensive output may have said more about New Mexico State's home field's friendly confines (for hitters) than his offensive tools. His inculcation into the Baltimore farm system was significantly disrupted. After being selected in the fourth round of the 2019 draft, a COVID-eliminated 2020 season was followed up by a torn labrum in 2021. He reached Triple A in 2023 and oscillated between Norfolk and Baltimore in 2023. For this analysis, we’ll focus on data from his time at Triple A last season.

Ortiz got a cup of coffee in the majors in 2023. In 15 games, he hit .212/.206/.448 with nine strikeouts. This sample is nothing, so let’s set it aside for now. The scouting report coming out of college on Ortiz was "good bat-to-ball skills, little power, and excellent defense underpinned by good instincts, lateral quickness, and defensive actions." How does this hold up four years later?

Ortiz was much too good for Triple A pitching in 2023. In 88 games, he hit .321/.378/.507 (.885), with a 17.7 K% and 8.2 BB%. Ortiz also hit nine home runs, 30 doubles, and four triples. While the power is probably fringe-average, he’s added strength and produced enough gap-to-gap power to have significant value, particularly if/when playing an up-the-middle defensive position.

Ortiz’s bat-to-ball skills are the driver of his offensive profile, but analyzing his quality of contact, in conjunction with this, can help unearth and illustrate the impact added strength has brought to his game. In Triple A in 2023, he managed an 81.3 contact percentage. That’s 8.2% better than the Triple A average. Ortiz’s bat-to-ball skills are relatively immutable. They were consistent against left-handed and right-handed pitching (83% and 80.7%), consistent by month throughout the season, and relatively consistent across pitch types. There was a distinction in Ortiz’s contact between hard stuff (fast/si/ct) at 85.2% and breaking stuff (76.4%). His diminished numbers against curveballs and sliders were better than average for the level. 

But what about the quality of contact? Based on his offensive profile coming out of college, we might expect Ortiz’s contact to be middling in quality. Not so. The average exit velocity in Triple A in 2023 was 87.4 mph. Ortiz’s average was 90.1 mph. This is a top 40 number in Triple-A baseball for the 2023 season, just below Kyle Manzardo.

Additionally, Ortiz’s Barrel Percentage was above average at 18.7% (Tru Media defines Barrel Percentage as batted balls with an exit velocity north of 95 mph hit between 10 and 35 degrees). It’s worth noting here that the ABS system undoubtedly bloated Triple A offensive environments in 2023. That’s a slight caveat when considering any hitters' adjustment from the minors to MLB. From Ortiz's spray chart bucketed by exit velocity, we can see that he uses the whole field well with his hardest-hit batted ball events.

We know that Ortiz has excellent bat-to-ball skills and hits the ball hard, generating quality contact and a promising start, but what about his swing decisions? There is an orange flag here for me. Ortiz did carry a high Chase Percentage (32.6%) through his stint in Triple A in 2023. Ortiz’s propensity to chase is significantly increased in pitcher counts (39.9%). While it’s not surprising to see an increase when a pitcher has leverage, this helps connect the dots on how to attack Ortiz. His blind spot in plate coverage is down and away. I’d expect him to see a steady diet of breaking pitches away around the fringes of the strike zone, a plan of attack he’ll have to adjust to to find sustained success.

We can’t talk about Ortiz without discussing his defense. Ortiz can play anywhere in the infield and offer at least plus, potentially double-plus defense with an above-average arm (where he plays in the Brewers infield is another question entirely). Strong defense provides great value, which we usually undervalue in trade assessments. Indeed, ZiPS projects Ortiz as a 1.8-win player in 2024. Ortiz has a solid value floor from his defense and versatility alone. Being a league-average hitter with fringe-average power would only add to that. 

I’ve seen some (read, many) surprised reactions to this trade for the Brewers. The return, in particular, has been labeled light. I think that’s a disservice to what the Brewers gained. They have five top 100 picks in the 2024 draft at their disposal, a lefty in DL Hall whose arm talent has thus far outstripped the consistency of his performances. In Ortiz, they have a stable, cost-controlled up-the-middle defender who has multiple avenues to accrue value for Milwaukee for the next half-decade.