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    Brewers Trade Proposal: Joe Ryan or Reid Detmers Could Cost Milwaukee Logan Henderson

    Joe Ryan and Reid Detmers headline two trade paths that could test the Brewers' willingness to move Logan Henderson.

    Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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    The Brewers have emerged as one of baseball's most aggressive contenders, but adding another impact starter could be the move that cements their World Series aspirations. Two intriguing trade possibilities stand out: Joe Ryan and Reid Detmers. Landing either pitcher would likely require Milwaukee to part with one of its top young arms, Logan Henderson, creating a difficult decision that could reshape the club's rotation now and for years to come.

    When healthy, Henderson has been undeniably effective on the mound. He's managed a 2.97 FIP alongside a 3.05 ERA in his 38 innings so far this season. The innings are the downside, because while Henderson has flashed that top-of-the-rotation upside, he hasn't been on the field long enough to really tap into that over a longer stretch.

    The upside with Henderson is the bulldog mentality, plus a unique changeup and a deceptive fastball. As two-pitch combinations go, that one has been electric so far. While the fastball averages just 93 MPH, the approach angle and induced vertical break from his low release point combine to make it feel as though the pitch is rising when it enters the hitting zone. That's a very difficult feeling to get on top of, and he's been very successful when keeping it at the top of the zone. To back that up, Henderson's high-spin changeup has been a weak-contact, high-swing-and-miss offering that's terrorized hitters. It isn't getting hit hard, and it's a real out pitch with two strikes.

    season-summary-Logan-Henderson (1).png

    Beyond the fastball and changeup, the rest of Henderson's arsenal remains a work in progress. The shape on his cutter isn't great, especially for his lower arm angle, but it does provide a bridge between his four-seam and changeup. The occasional slurve rates out well from a stuff perspective, but it doesn't blend all that well with his primary pitches and he's struggled to command it at all, giving up some loud contact over the heart of the plate.

    With more innings, Henderson could very well improve his feel for the cutter and slurve, but there might be some concerns about getting to those innings. Pat Murphy mentioned that Henderson does see his stuff diminish from 70-80 pitches onward in an outing, and that's not helped by his reliance on his two primary offerings. Compounding that is that, when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. Henderson owns the record of the hardest-hit baseball in history coming against him, and we've seen several times this season some fly balls reaching the upper deck and just barely being foul. When hitters line him up, the contact gets loud, and that perhaps suggests some regression is on the cards.

    In some ways, he offers an apt comparison with Drew Rasmussen, who's succeeding with the Tampa Bay Rays over the last two years but faced a myriad of injuries that held him back after the Brewers traded him away for Willy Adames in 2021. Rasmussen has learned to induce weak contact with the best of them, but so far, we can't say the same of Henderson.

    Henderson could very well be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter over the next five or six years, if he can stay healthy and further develop his arsenal. There's a big ceiling there as a player who gets swing-and-miss in the strike zone and is comfortable going after hitters. On the other hand, the Brewers can use Henderson to acquire a more reliable arm to cover multiple playoff runs. He's a valuable trade chip because of the results and the two strong pitches, plus the team control remaining. If Milwaukee decides to capitalize on that value, two starting pitchers stand out as particularly compelling targets:

    Joe Ryan
    Joe Ryan is one of the top 20 starting pitchers in baseball by fWAR since the start of 2024. Like Henderson's, his fastball can get hit hard when he misses his locations, but he's consistently shown the kind of strong command that avoids that issue. Relying on a low arm slot and a great vertical approach angle, his fastball generates a lot of swing-and-miss up in the strike zone, and he has a complete arsenal operating behind it.

    Ryan gave up six home runs in his last start. (That's not a typo, but it's also not usually that much of an issue for him.) Despite that, he has a 3.38 ERA and 3.41 FIP this season, and has the ability to dominate teams for 7+ innings. He has a genuine six-pitch mix headlined by the fastball/sweeper combination. His splitter and sinker keep hitters from sitting on the four-seamer too much, while the knuckle-curve adds more depth than his sweeper. He has the seventh-best strikeout-minus-walk percentage (K-BB%) since 2024, so hitters have to beat him. Usually, they don't.

    season-summary-Joe-Ryan.png

    Under control through 2027, Joe Ryan has a chance to help the Brewers in multiple competitive seasons, and multiple playoff races. He's the type of arm that can go against anyone as the second or third starter in a playoff rotation, and his arsenal variety lets him go deeper and perhaps have more coverage if one pitch isn't coming out right on the day. He's also got the benefit of more big-game experience. Think of him as a xross between Henderson and Freddy Peralta, with more of each's strengths and fewer of their weaknesses.

    Reid Detmers
    While Ryan offers the higher floor, Detmers represents the higher-upside gamble after taking a significant step forward in 2026. Detmers has one of the biggest velocity differentials in baseball between his fastball and curveball, and has broken out in a big way this season after being relegated to a bullpen role in 2025. His breaking balls, by run value, lead all of baseball, and the movement profiles are beautiful. While the velocity has (as usual) dipped since returning to the rotation, Detmers is showcasing a lower arm slot this season, and although it doesn't grade out as well, I think I like the movement profile more from this slot on his fastball.

    Detmers is quite effective at finding the upper third of the strike zone, and has managed to mitigate some of the damage that may come if he loses that command into the lower quadrants of the zone, but he's also well-protected by the rest of his arsenal. If a hitter is sitting on the fastball and swinging early, they're going to be very susceptible to his curveball, which tunnels well before breaking late and violently downward. The slider and changeup tunnel even better, as you'd expect for pitches with less break. The slider dips downward more than would be typical for his arm angle, helping him get underneath bats with more regularity.

    If you'd like to see for yourself in the graphic below, proMix+ defines how well a pitch follows another in terms of arsenal variety, proMatch+ rates how well they tunnel off one another, and proMax+ combines the two. Detmers's entire arsenal has great separation, and that plays strongly off the back of his fastball if he can establish it.

    arsenal-interactions-Reid-Detmers.png

    Detmers is under team control for one more year than Ryan, reaching free agency at the end of 2028. He doesn't have the same track record that Ryan does, but he's taken a real jump in 2026, and with big questions about the Angels player development system, you have to wonder if the H&H Car Wash could find a few further incremental gains.

    Ryan is the safer acquisition, thanks to his longer track record and proven durability. Detmers may possess the higher developmental ceiling, particularly if Milwaukee believes it can unlock another level from his arsenal. The decision ultimately comes down to whether the Brewers prioritize certainty or upside, a debate that could also be applied to Henderson's capabilities. It also comes down, of course, to whether the asking price for one turns out to be significantly higher or lower than for the other. It might well be that the strength of the second piece in a deal for either pitcher headlined by Henderson would determine the level of Milwaukee's interest in them.

    Trading Henderson would mean surrendering six years of affordable upside for a pitcher who's more playoff-ready today. Whether that gamble is worthwhile depends on how aggressively Milwaukee wants to chase a championship over the next two or three seasons. Henderson has shown he can compete when he's on the field. That doesn't negate some underlying concerns about his arsenal mix, which affects his ability to go deeper into games, or his health. The Brewers could use his recent performance to headline a trade for either Joe Ryan or Reid Detmers. Should they? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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    3 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

    So basically, you think Henderson has the potential... to be a Paul Skenes, Chase Bruns, Jacob Misiorowski, Cristopher Sanchez, Cam Schlitter, Logan Gilbert, Dylan Cease type pitcher(actually, better than the majority of them... PLUS Kade Anderson and Seth Hernandez(just touching on the two young arms that are elite pitching prospects).

     

    I guess you believe he's a future Tarik Skubal. Can you articulate why? What about him would you say is similar to a 2X Cy Young pitcher and a top 5 pitcher in Baseball? 

    He's a smaller guy for a starter, so he's not likely to add velocity... and that's not a killer for him because he does get good run. 
    He has a nice change. 

    But it takes more than that or you just have a poor man's Peralta who... wasn't close to the things you've suggested Henderson will be. 


    I would also like to take a moment to apologize on the off chance if this is Mrs. Henderson as I'm sure it can be hard to see your Son's name being thrown about in trade discussions. I doubt that's the case, I've just not yet see someone basically say, 'no, can't trade Henderson for Skubal because he's going to be as good as Skubal has been the last 5 years over the NEXT 5 years.'

    I mean, you can just say, 'The team control we have over Henderson isn't worth a rental,' and that's a viable argument.

    Henderson is going to be basically prime Lincecum is a less compelling argument. 

    Also the thing with skubal he wont be a cc sabathia for us 

    Skubal is on a pitch count by daddy boras he wont be pitching on short rest in the playoffs if we need him skubal is chasing 400 mil 

    Besides that bum sabatoged his own teams season knowing he had elbow injury in the offseason he refused to bring it up because he didnt want to make less money in arbitration is that a guy you want on your team skubal dont care about anything besides getting that contract ill take henderson and all his control anyday 

    Jake McKibbin
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

     

    It seems teams have been asking about the Brewers young controllable arms in trade discussions. I don't know if this adds validity, as we don't know the brewers response to those requests but I think there's been some valid points here. A couple of things:

    - Henderson has a strong fastball shape wise, but needs to have his command on point. This could be said for a lot of pitchers, but I don't think he could survive well if the velocity dropped at any point (injury, etc)

    - It's a great combination of outlier vertical approach angle and induced vertical break for his arm angle. That being said, pitchers do adapt, especially to fastball trends. VAA fastballs, like Freddy Peralta's, have been hit harder year on year as hitter's get more and more used to seeing them around the league. That adaptation is one of the key differences between 2021/22 Peralta and 2026 Peralta (note Peralta surged after spider tack was banned in 2021)

    - There's zero wiggle room if either the changeup or fastball aren't coming out of the hand quite right on a given day. It's why we so rarely see two-pitch pitchers dominate for long. Even take Spencer Strider, who's struggled despite regaining his former fastball velocity. He throws a lot harder than Henderson too.

    Just some food for thought that, to use the stock market advice, past performance is no indication of future returns. 

    All of that being said, this is toeing the line value wise. If Henderson headlined a deal, it should be the majority of the value in that deal, with no other high end pieces included. Or perhaps even expand the deal to include a controllable reliever as well.

    Joe Ryan is entering his most expensive few years, and typically the Brewers would be trading an arm like that in the 2026/27 offseason, not acquiring one a few months before. He also has less developmental improvement than there perhaps is with a Reid Detmers who's just beginning to tap into his upside. I think Robert Murray said on the Microbrew podcast this week that sources believe he could be a top 5-10 pitcher in baseball with the Brewers. That's more than I thought, but it is an intriguing possibility. That upside is what you'd eb trading for, but it is a gamble vs what you have in Henderson

    Finally, Henderson's largest innings total in a season is 81 1/3, and he's consistently been healthy to pitch around that 80 inning mark. Will he wear down and tire as he passes that mark? As mentioned, he can't afford to lose the command or life on the fastball without running into problems, and with a history of elbow inflammation, that doesn't perhaps reassure me. 

    Just food for thought in the whole debate!

     

     

     

    • Like 2
    7 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

    It's a great combination of outlier vertical approach angle and induced vertical break for his arm angle. That being said, pitchers do adapt, especially to fastball trends. VAA fastballs, like Freddy Peralta's, have been hit harder year on year as hitter's get more and more used to seeing them around the league. That adaptation is one of the key differences between 2021/22 Peralta and 2026 Peralta (note Peralta surged after spider tack was banned in 2021)

    I think this is ignoring that Freddy’s FB consistently was getting worse the more and more he reduced his extension. Freddy had a great VAA because he got so much extension down the mound so he was releasing the ball from a much lower slot than you’d expect for a guy his size/arm angle. Freddy’s extension is down almost an entire foot this year compared to its peak.

    Jake McKibbin
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    45 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

    This is wrong. He threw 103 innings last season.

    Huh, baseball reference has done me dirty on that front. Delightful!

    The minors do naturally restrict innings, no one's going to throw 160+ in the shortened lower level seasons, but I  think he's had an injury issue in most seasons?

    47 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

    I think this is ignoring that Freddy’s FB consistently was getting worse the more and more he reduced his extension. Freddy had a great VAA because he got so much extension down the mound so he was releasing the ball from a much lower slot than you’d expect for a guy his size/arm angle. Freddy’s extension is down almost an entire foot this year compared to its peak.

    I remember seeing a chart somewhere on this about how VAA based fastballs were becoming less effective as more and more pitchers coming through has that lower arm angle. I think the average VAA on four seamers has decreased season on season too, so it's not just Peralta but you're absolutely right that the extension is a huge part of it as well 

    14 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

    Huh, baseball reference has done me dirty on that front. Delightful!

    The minors do naturally restrict innings, no one's going to throw 160+ in the shortened lower level seasons, but I  think he's had an injury issue in most seasons?

    I remember seeing a chart somewhere on this about how VAA based fastballs were becoming less effective as more and more pitchers coming through has that lower arm angle. I think the average VAA on four seamers has decreased season on season too, so it's not just Peralta but you're absolutely right that the extension is a huge part of it as well 

    Putting it simply with Peralta the four years his FB performed best by both xwOBA and RV/100 were the four years his release height was under 5.10ft from 2020 to 2023. When the release height increased in 2024 his fastball lost a ton of its effectiveness. 

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    On 7/24/2026 at 1:05 AM, Klantz27 said:

    Skubal 2.83 era 2.85 fip .931 whip 

    Henderson 3.05 era 2.97fip .939 whip

    I never brought up skubal anyway BTW lol

    Poor mans peralta lol freddy put up .1 war in his first 3 seasons whats henderson at 2.1 total in 63 innings  lol not even a comparison to the start of there careers 

    U right he might not make it top 5 might of jumped the gun a little but surely he has the potential to put up freddys stat line from last year 5.5 war 180 ip thats good for what top 10 pitcher freddy was what 4th in cy young last year 

     

    I didn't say you brought up Skubal. You DID however bring up him(Henderson) being a top 5 pitcher and winning not ONE, but TWO Cy Young's in the next 5 years. 

    So... which pitcher that's playing should I equate that to? Who else has had that type of run of success? 

    Also, you do realize why posting his ERA and WHIP next to Skubal's is absolutely meaningless, right?

     

    On 7/24/2026 at 2:14 AM, Klantz27 said:

    Also the thing with skubal he wont be a cc sabathia for us 

    Skubal is on a pitch count by daddy boras he wont be pitching on short rest in the playoffs if we need him skubal is chasing 400 mil 

    Besides that bum sabatoged his own teams season knowing he had elbow injury in the offseason he refused to bring it up because he didnt want to make less money in arbitration is that a guy you want on your team skubal dont care about anything besides getting that contract ill take henderson and all his control anyday 

    This is a mixure of nonsense and... what is the point type of post?

    1-Yeah, Skubal won't be CC for us. I don't think I ever even hinted that he'd be... anything close. We'd have already traded for Skubal if you wanted a 1 for 1 comp, but... don't get the point there. Even when Sabathia was pitching, I thought what he was doing was stupid.

    2-"Daddy Boras" just feels... soi childish. 

     

    3-Again... the ONLY reason I brought up Skubal is because YOU said the very things he's accomplished the past 5 seasons are what Logan Henderson would accomplish. 

    I don't care that he felt discomfort, I don't ever care about "daddy boras," and I don't know what point you're making. 

    You've answered every question I DIDN'T ask, but ignored the part about why you think Henderson is so good?
    Though to be fair, we went from 2X Cy Young Winner and top 5 pitcher in Baseball to maybe a career year like Peralta put up last year... which is a MASSIVE chasm. 




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