Brewers Visit Cubs, Aiming to Ruin Their Own Reunion with Old Boss

If there is one series that has the potential to outstrip the hostilities that fomented in the series the Brewers just emerged from, it’s the one they are entering. For the first time in his managerial career, Craig Counsell faces Milwaukee as a rival. His decision to join the Cubs happened early enough in the offseason that he and others thought maybe tempers would die down as winter plodded along, but all of the chatter surrounding his decision would seem strongly to suggest otherwise. The Cubs were hated by the Brewers faithful before facilitating the perceived betrayal of a once beloved icon. With both teams vying for the top of the Central, this series has a chance to turn the rivalry up a notch.

Friday, May 3rd
Joe Ross (1-3 5.40 ERA) vs. Hayden Wesneski (2-0 0.87 ERA)
It's fair to say Joe Ross got FIPed to death in his penultimate start, but in his most recent one, he was genuinely smoked by an unrelenting Yankees lineup. The path forward to see Ross as a sustainable big-league starter feels less certain after he yielded seven runs in five innings, but he’s getting decent swing-and-miss rates; he’s getting a decent amount of ground balls; and he’s suppressing a decent amount of pop off the bat. In short, he’s performing like a reasonably solid middle-of-the-rotation starter who’s run into some really bad luck. 

More bad luck looms for Ross, as he finds his counterpart at the outset of what looks like a brilliant season. Wesneski came up as a long relief option, but he moved into the rotation on the back of his slider and the deepening of his repertoire. After being knocked around he was shifted back to the pen, but after sharpening his stuff was stretched back out and now sits as a valuable arm in the back of the Cubs rotation. The sub-1.00 ERA is perhaps a disproportionately glittering statistic, given that he’s pitched just over 10 innings, but he’s also struck out six while walking only one, and he’s getting batters to chase at an elite level. If he can even come close to maintaining this production, the Brewers (and the NL Central in general) have much to fear in this young arm. It's still more likely that he has some growing pains ahead, though. Perhaps the Brewers can inflict them.

Saturday, May 4th
Tobias Myers (0-1 4.50 ERA) vs. Jameson Taillon (2-0 1.50 ERA)
At only 25 years old, the Brewers are Myers’s sixth franchise, and the one with which he made his major league debut. On the back of an elite four-seamer, he authored a great debut against the Pirates and then proceeded to endure a walloping by the Yanks. The ups and downs of a fledgling career offer little in the way of prognostics, but the front office has determined that for the time being, Myers has earned his way into the rotation. Let’s see if he has what it takes to stay there.

Jameson Taillon is in his second year with the Cubs, after signing a four-year pact with the team before 2023. The righty looked like a potentially squandered contract after last year saw his season start with a groin injury and a 7.61 ERA in the following 11 starts. Ultimately, he improved and lowered his ERA to a more palatable 4.84. So far in 2024, Taillon is exhibiting the kind of mastery that made him a second overall pick way back in 2010.

Sunday, May 5th
Freddy Peralta (3.21 ERA) vs. Javier Assad (1.97 ERA)
Pending the lack of a suspension, Fastball Freddy will be closing out the series against the Cubs. Emerging as one of the most beloved and reliable faces on the team, Freddy was pitching masterfully against the Rays before plunking Jose Siri on a 3-0 count and, without warning, finding himself ejected. The call to eject Peralta was bewildering to many given the Brewers substantial lead at the time, but it did stick, with Peralta receiving a five-game suspension, which he’s appealing.

Closing out the series against the Crew is Cubs swingman Javier Assad. Since debuting in 2022, Assad has bounced in and out of the rotation, generally by dint of starter injuries. With both a walk and strikeout rate on the wrong side of league average, it's fair to characterize Assad’s repertoire as underwhelming. Where he isn’t deceiving hitters, though, he is coercing them to hit the ball on the ground at a prolific rate. If he can sustain his low hard-hit percentage, there’s no reason he can’t be relied upon to be a serviceable back-of-the-rotation arm.

Players To Watch
Christopher Morel: Statistically pretty close to identical to Jackson Chourio, the promising young Morel, too, is looking for more consistency. Whereas Chourio started hot and has begun to cool off, Morel seems to be breaking through the deep freeze. Over the last 10 games, he’s kept his average from plunging below the Mendoza line and maintained at least a meager ability to get on base. While the slash line isn’t going to turn heads, Morel’s power and ability to come up big when he needs to just might.

Craig Counsell & Pat Murphy: In a consequential series between division rivals, it might seem strange to focus on the managers, but the dynamic at play here can’t be ignored. The Brewers will be entering Wrigley Field on Counsell’s turf, as foes. Murphy and Counsell’s dynamic goes back decades, with Counsell once under Murphy’s tutelage before his big-league career. Later, Counsell would rank above Murphy, turning his collegiate coach into his right-hand man in Milwaukee. Now with Counsell in Chicago and Murphy at the helm in Milwaukee, they meet as peers and rivals. One wonders if the conviviality between these two is galvanized by their long relationship, or if the vitriol that burns in the hearts of the Brewers faithful is carried through to the front office, as well.

Brice Turang: The biggest highlight Brice Turang has produced so far in 2024 was when he fell down during a filthy strikeout delivered courtesy of Jared Jones. Nasty as the pitch was, the replay belies what Turang has been able to produce for the Crew. What that looks like is elite defense and an .809 OPS, plus some of the best basestealing in baseball. The Cubs' catchers are weak-armed; he should add to his total this weekend.

Predictions: It has to come down to pitching with this series, and the disparities between Milwaukee and Chicago are a bit too pronounced to feel especially confident in the Crew pulling off a series win here. Sadly, I think they lose two of the three.