Bring On the Blue Birds: Blue Jays at Brewers, Jun. 10-12, 2024

After getting swept by the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, the Crew managed to scrape two wins against the Tigers, winning the series and ending the road trip on a positive note. Now they face the Blue Jays, whom the standings page keeps pushing cruelly toward a summer sell-off. Does this deflate a Toronto team who, despite being stacked with talent, hasn’t been able to cobble together enough wins to stay relevant - or do they challenge that narrative and take the series against the division-leading Brewers? Let’s break it down!

Monday June 10th
Jose Berríos (5-4 2.80 ERA) vs. Colin Rea (4-2, 3.53 ERA)
Blue Jays righty Jose Berríos is one of the most enigmatic pitchers I’ve ever seen. His xERA is 4.40, more than one and a half points above his actual numbers. A cursory glance at his Baseball Savant page shows you that hitters are making contact on his stuff, often hitting him hard when they do. It’s not a new narrative for him. Since debuting in 2016, he’s had three seasons (including 2024 to this point) where he’s sat in the lowest 8% of the league in maximum exit velocity allowed. Also in the “not new” category for Berríos, though, is his undeniable efficacy, in spite of it all. It will be interesting to see what a Brewers lineup with legitimate power can do against him. 

While we’re on the topic of difficult-to-predict pitchers, it will be Colin Rea pitching against the Blue Jays. Right when it seemed like Rea might be regressing toward the 5.54 xERA looming over him, he’s put together a run wherein over the last three starts, he’s only surrendered three runs. He isn’t going deep into games, but he’s consistently giving the Crew a credible hope of victory almost every time he takes the mound.

Tuesday June 11th
Yusei Kikuchi (3-5, 3.48 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodriguez (0-0, -.-- ERA) 
To this point in the season, Yusei Kikuchi is enjoying the most effective of his six seasons in the majors. The very respectable 3.48 ERA is a bit inflated by a couple of ugly starts against the Tigers and Pirates, in each of which he surrendered five runs. There’s also some anecdotal evidence that Kikuchi (known for requiring a minimum of 11 hours of sleep on nights before he starts) pitches much better in night games, which this start will be. Despite the blemishes in his record, Kikuchi’s most impressive starts this season have been against the Orioles. Effective against a team replete with talent and a potent offense anchored by a prodigious, MVP-caliber catcher you say? Look out.

For the Brewers, this looks like the exciting debut of pitching prospect Carlos F. Rodriguez. He's a kitchen-sink starter with maturity and ample experience, and you can find out much more about him in Spencer Michaelis's detailed breakdown of the rookie upon news of his call-up.

Wednesday June 12th
Chris Bassitt (6-6, 3.80 ERA) vs. Tobias Myers (2-2, 4.15 ERA)
When the Jays signed Bassitt to a three-year, $63-million deal in the 2022-23 offseason, much of the statistically-minded community called it the steal of the offseason. It’s not an unfounded claim, with the first year seeing him finish 10th in Cy Young voting. In his most recent start, Bassitt faced the A’s, in what will likely be his last pitching performance in the current stadium of the team where he spent most of his career. What did he do with the emotions attached to that moment? Eight innings of one-run ball, seven of which were one-hit mastery.

Being a bit of a pitbull is nothing new for Bassitt, and you can expect that same fiery tenacity when he takes to the mound on Wednesday. Also, just spitballing here, but what if Milwaukee decided to keep Bassitt (and his team-friendly contract) here in Milwaukee before Toronto takes off? Just saying.

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For more on the potential matchup between the Brewers and Jays this trade season, see Harold Hutchison's piece published earlier Monday morning.

Faced with taking on the grizzled veteran will be rookie Tobias Myers. There’s been much to appreciate in Myers’s fledgling career, but he was downright brilliant in his most recent start. Over eight innings, he held the Tigers to one hit - a feat anyone would consider impressive, no matter who’s on the mound or up to bat. No one is expecting the young righty to show up with no-hit stuff every time he takes the mound, but with an impressive repertoire of six pitches, the sky’s the limit in terms of his potential. It will be interesting to see how he employs his Swiss Army approach on the Blue Jays, in the wake of what must be a confidence-boosting start. 

Players To Watch
Davis Schneider: It’s been an unexpected rise to the majors for Davis Schneider. Picked in the 28th round of the 2017 draft, it’s fair to say that the 25-year-old left wasn’t an obvious candidate for ascendance. After producing an admirable .275/.416/.553 in Triple-A, he was called up last summer, following the DFA of Thomas Hatch. His big-league slash line (.254/.364/.505) may not turn all heads, but the 144 career OPS+ over his first 300 at-bats is something anyone would be happy with in a 28th-rounder. Moreover, though, as the Blue Jays' playoff hopes diminish and the veteran core seems poised to be traded away, players in Schneider’s shoes will be working hard hustle to earn their place in the new order. Expect tenacity from the up-and-comer. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: In 2019, the progeny of three big-leaguers--Biggio, Bichette and Guerrero Jr. (all All-Stars, two Hall of Famers)--made their big-league debut, and with their emergence, the sun rose on a very hopeful horizon in Toronto. The reality has been less scintillating. Biggio was just cut, and two-time batting title winner Bichette is being aggressively shopped.

There isn’t as much dialogue swirling around the dispatching of Guerrero or his ever-changing profile, and it’s not hard to see why. Freshly 25 years old, it’s still possible the young slugger’s best days lie ahead of him, despite the fact that he’s already notched a runner-up in MVP voting and (less consequentially) was this year's MLB: The Show cover athlete. Whether he’s all hit or begins to re-discover his power stroke, there's a chance Guerrero will remind you why he’s face-of-the-franchise worthy over the next year and a half.

Brice Turang: It can’t be overstated how special the breakout of Brice Turang has been. After the Crew was shut out by the Phillies, Turang took it upon himself to go 4-5 with a double to open the series against the Tigers. This isn’t a one-off for him. Game in and game out, he’s been (at the very least) a threat to get on base, if not put on a multi-hit clinic. At only 24 years old and still pre-arbitration eligibility, it’s a nice thing for a small-market team to have a young player with flexibility to build around (potentially) for years to come.

Tobias Myers: It’s been a rotating door of starters since the season began. It was already a shallower pool of pitchers for the Crew than they’d enjoyed the last several seasons, but injuries and the Corbin Burnes trade have added to that attrition. In the rigmarole of it all, one of the most intriguing flashes of talent to shine through has been Myers. A four-seamer, a cutter, a slider, a changeup, a curveball and a sinker make up a deep repertoire, and while most of these pitches are definitely still green, all he’ll need to do is tweak and tighten and he could sneak his way into a semi-permanent mid-rotation role.

Predictions: Similar to the series they are coming off of, the Brewers will be facing a team with a diminishing playoff hope and a sense of urgency. Toronto is already rumored to be in sell mode, so it’s not difficult to see a scenario where that same diminishment applies to their enthusiasm. What’s more, the Brewers will be playing on their home turf, where they enjoy an 18-10 record. They should, at the very least, take two of these three games.