Let’s Make A Deal: Brewers And Blue Jays Do A Midseason Re-Tool

In some ways, Toronto looks like a seller. They are 13 games back of the division-leading Yankees, and the AL East is a tough division. The Tampa Bay Rays have made the playoffs for the last five years. The Baltimore Orioles won 101 games in 2023. The Yankees are looking very good this season, while the Red Sox have not exactly been pushovers.

This just hasn’t looked like the Jays' year, but they have a lot of talent that could help them catch lightning in a bottle over the next few years, and they have some holes the Brewers could fill. Over 30 years ago, the Blue Jays were party to one of the biggest heartbreaks Brewers fans ever had. But could they bring Brewers fans a sweet memory? Let’s look and see what birds they have in hand for the Crew.

Toronto Blue Jays: (32-33), 4th Place in the AL East
The Blue Jays might be nearly in the cellar, but they are not as bad off as the White Sox, Marlins, or similarly moribund franchises. This is a team that has tasted success in recent years, even if they are decades removed from World Series titles in 1992 and 1993. In the only season of the last four in which they didn't reach the postseason, they were 91-win hard-luck losers. In the infield, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have been mainstays.

Their biggest issue on the offensive side of the ball has been the decline of George Springer and Kevin Kiermaier, both of whom have OPSes below .610 as of Jun. 7, with Kiermaier at a meager .557. Production at catcher and designated hitter has also dropped substantially, with Alejandro Kirk slumping and Justin Turner not quite performing at the level that Brandon Belt did for the Jays in 2023.

On the other hand, Toronto has some strong pitching. Jose Berríos, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman have all posted solid numbers this season. Their bullpen has been shakier, but some electric performances help the Jays remain in games with tough division opponents.

Why Would They Sell?
They are just two games back for the last Wild Card spot in the American League. So, they’re not looking to raise a white flag, but they have some holes to fill. They are in desperate need of improvement in center field.

Over the medium to long term, they will be looking for young starting pitchers. None of their top four starters are below the age of 30, and the Jays are a club who looks to be in need of at least a soft reset to remain competitive while getting younger, given some of the veterans who have declined. Their payroll of $213 million limits their flexibility to address their holes. Plus, some of their players are on the cusp of free agency.

Whom might they deal? One option would be Kikuchi, whose three-year deal ends after 2024, putting him back on the market. Another could be catcher Danny Jansen, who is arguably their best offensive player (.847 OPS in 113 at-bats), but also a pending free agent. The clock is also ticking on reliever Yimi Garcia, who’s posted a 1.50 ERA and three saves in 23 appearances, helping to cover for the injured Jordan Romano.

Why They Could Be A Trade Partner
If the Blue Jays need young talent, Milwaukee has a lot of it, including a couple of potential logjams where the Jays are looking for help. One of those logjams is in the outfield, where the Brewers have Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins, Chris Roller, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer on their 40-man roster, alongside Christian Yelich.

On the flip side, the Brewers need starting pitching. While Joe Ross, DL Hall, and Jakob Junis could be back relatively soon, it is crucial for the Crew to line up one more arm, particularly with Robert Gasser going on the 15-day injured list with his elbow issue. 

With a number of teams looking for pitching help, the Brewers are going to have to make a solid offer or find a potential seller that other teams may not consider calling early on. The Blue Jays fit this bill, since they have some needs, but are not quite out of the playoff hunt yet.

Brewers Trade Targets
Blue Jays General Manager Ross Atkins has ruled out dealing Bichette or Guerrero, per MLB Trade Rumors. However, the Brewers aren't looking for infield help, and Atkins has said nothing about the team’s starting pitchers being off the market. Since the Crew needs someone for the rotation, it may be a chance to buy early, and get a decent deal.

Which starter (or starters) should the Crew target? Let’s look over their top four. Bassitt and Gausman may look appealing, but both are old (Bassitt is 35, Gausman 33), and both have salaries in excess of $20 million for 2025. Bassitt’s deal runs through 2026. The Crew needs rotation help, but should only acquire Bassitt or Gausman if the Jays pick up substantial salary and if the cost in terms of young talent is lower than expected.

Berríos is the youngest of the Jays starters, and arguably the ace of their rotation. He is also under team control as part of a seven-year, $131 million deal. He gets $18.7 million a year in 2025 and 2026, after which he can opt out. If he doesn’t, the Crew would be on the hook for $24.7 million in both 2027 and 2028. That’s a hefty price tag, but he could be worth it as a veteran ace alongside Freddy Peralta and the Crew’s young rotation prospects. The money would make a deal very complicated, but might also hold down the prospect price tag.

That leaves Kikuchi, who has put up very good numbers in 2024, posting a 2-5 record and a 3.66 ERA over 66 1/3 innings pitched in 12 starts. The 33-year-old Japanese lefty has taken his game up a notch in the last year with a new curveball, but his contract expires after this year, and he’s represented by Scott Boras. As a partial-season rental, he could arguably fill in well enough for 2024. The pro-rated $10 million doesn’t break the bank, and it's unlikely he'd command the kind of prospect haul that a more controllable starter would.

The Match-Up
The Brewers could solve Toronto’s center field problem for the next few years with any number of candidates. Blake Perkins is an interesting player. Given the season he's had to date, he could help Toronto round out baseball's best defensive outfield, and his bat would give them nice ways to rest and rotate the likes of Kiermaier and Springer.

It might be painful to move Perkins for a rest-of-the-season rental in Kikuchi, but such a deal gives both teams something to address 2024 needs as they continue running for the playoffs. Failing that, the two teams still have other pieces that might generate mutual interest. Toronto is a team to watch this month and next, as the Brewers position themselves for a run deep into October.