Can Brewers' Ground Attack Sustain Enough Run Production to Get Them to October?

Only one team in the major leagues has avoided double plays in double-play situations better than the Brewers this season. Unfortunately, that team is the one at which they're looking up in the NL Central standings, the Chicago Cubs—and the Cubs are avoiding twin killings in a more profitable way than are the Brewers. Chicago hits the ball in the air more often than any other team in baseball, something they've assiduously worked toward over the last few seasons. They also make contact at a very high rate. By contrast, Milwaukee has the third-highest ground ball rate in the majors. They avoid making two outs at a time mostly by striking out more often than the Cubs do (20.4% of the time with runners on, against the Cubs' 19.6%), and by laying down more bunts (24 sacrifice attempts, the most in baseball and 14 more than the Cubs).

Meanwhile, with their aerial game honed and their lineup rich with power, the Cubs have 15 more home runs with men on base (44) than does the Crew (29). Last year, the Brewers were also a ground-based offense, but thanks to Willy Adames and better power years from William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins, they had 97 homers with men on, against 80 by the Cubs. Right now, the Cubs are a neat encapsulation of the league-wide trends in both run production and offensive philosophy, toward more power and a focus on elevating the ball. The Brewers are the antithesis thereof: they thrive by putting the ball on the ground and using their speed and ball placement to put pressure on defenses.

No team in baseball has as many infield hits (95) as or more bunt hits (11) than the Brewers. In situations that allow for productive outs the Brewers make them at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Only the Orioles (21) have reached on errors more times than the Brewers (20). Only the Rays have stolen more bases (97) than the Brewers (90). Only the Tigers (55%) have taken the extra base on hits—going first-to-third or second-to-home on singles, or first-to-home on doubles—more often than the Brewers (47%). If you did want to design an offense that could consistently score plenty of runs, despite a dearth of lift and slug, this is what that team would look like.

When fully healthy (which, alas, they aren't), Christian Yelich and William Contreras are the Brewers' two best hitters. The team has four guys (Sal Frelick, Caleb Durbin, Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz) who put the ball in play more often than an average batter, taking walks, strikeouts and home runs into account. Of the four, Chourio and Ortiz have roughly average distributions of batted-ball trajectories, while Frelick is a ground-ball guy and Durbin is a fly-ball guy. They do have a first base mix (Hoskins and Jake Bauers) who consistently elevate when they put it in play, so there's a modicum of balance. Isaac Collins hits the ball in the air. This team can do a bit of everything, Without a doubt, though, their lineup depends more on finding success by getting the ball into the field and bouncing than any other team in the league.

Can a team built this way score enough to win in the modern game, either over the long season or in the playoffs? It's too early to tell. The Brewers are scoring exactly an average number of runs per game (4.31). They actually rank 13th in MLB in runs per contest. That said, the Cubs are a full run ahead of them, and it's hard not to ascribe the difference to the 33 more overall homers Chicago has hit. There's no slug on the ground, and while the Brewers have found all the ways left to score in this league without good slug, that ceiling is as low as it's ever been.

Even last year, the team embraced this mentality. They enjoy finding what Pat Murphy once called "a harder way to score," knowing they don't really have much of a choice. If they want to surge forward and challenge Chicago for the division crown, though, they need Collins to sustain his strong production; Contreras to get healthy and start showing the ability to blast the ball again; and a full, unfettered repeat of last year's boffo second half from Chourio. Yes, that means more power. The Brewers could eke into the postseason without it, but they can't make meaningful noise this year absent more punch than they've shown so far.