Can The Brewers Take Advantage Of The Reeling Rays?

Staying in the AL Central for their next series, the Brewers trade out Goliath for David by bidding adieu to the Yankees and hosting the Rays. It’s a bit of an uncharacteristically slow start for the Rays who have yet to demonstrate an ability to consistently win, but they are still helmed by a brilliant and calculating front office who knows how to put a winning team together. Will the Rays defy their current trajectory or will the Brewers continue to ascend in theirs? Let’s break it down.

Monday, April 29th
Ryan Pepiot (2-2 3.77 ERA) vs. Bryse Wilson (2-0 3.50 ERA)

The prize piece that the Rays acquired from the Dodgers for Tyler Glasnow is the high-ceiling righty Ryan Pepiot. Having made his debut in 2022 and just eclipsed a hundred innings pitched this year, he has been a solid bright spot on what has been an uncharacteristically glum season for the Rays. Pepiot relies heavily on a two-pitch repertoire of a fastball and change up with little efficacy in a third pitch to date, but he’s still pitching to a very respectable 3.80 xFIP.

Squaring off against the Rays is Bryse Wilson. Once a top-100 prospect, the former Brave has seen his stuff degrade exponentially over the last several years, with his once elite fast-ball missing few bats these days. His 3.50 ERA is challenged by an xERA nearly a point higher, and a pessimist doesn’t have to look far to see how his game might fall apart if he can’t figure out how to be more deceptive at the plate. 

Tuesday, April 30th
Freddy Peralta (2-0 3.18 ERA). As of Sunday evening, the Rays have yet to announce a starter.

Easily the most convincing arm in the Brewers rotation, Fastball Freddy’s last start saw him banged around by the Pirates in what would eventually be a no decision. Five walks, five hits, five runs, five strikeouts. Lots of fives, but not even five innings of work as he was pulled with two outs in the fifth. Still, these numbers are the outlier for what has been a pretty fantastic season for Peralta thus far. It will be interesting to see how he bounces back against the Rays.

Wednesday, May 1st
Zach Eflin (1-3 4.08 ERA) vs. Colin Rea (2-0 3.25 ERA)

Zach Eflin is in his second year of a three year deal with the Rays and so far he’s delivered. Early going suggests a bit of a step back for Eflin, who finished sixth in Cy Young voting last year, but he’s still showing brilliance when he’s in command of his sinker. Inauspiciously though, in his most recent start, the big righty did give up four runs in what would be an eventual loss to the abysmal White Sox. 

Before giving up 30 runs in two days, the Brewers did manage to scratch out a win against the Yankees on the back of Colin Rea’s pretty forgettable start. The peripherals were bad for Colin Rea, and after surrendering five runs over six innings against the Yanks, things only look worse. Prior to that ugly series though, Rea had successfully proven himself an irksome gambit for opposing batters. The Rays are beginning to flounder in the standings and may be pressing. If Rea can recapture some control with his offspeed mastery, he may prove himself a thorn in their side. 

Players To Watch
Ben Rortvedt: Just about 24 hours before the season kicked off, Ben Rortvedt was traded by the Yankees to the Rays as part of a three-team trade that saw John Berti go to the Yankees. Since then he’s put up a .821 OPS and leads all Rays position players in Baseball-Reference WAR. What’s especially significant about this is that his previous value came from the fact that he’s a fabulous defensive mind, albeit an abysmal hitter. Prior to landing on the Rays, his career slashline was .146/.234/.255. If there’s any team that could suss out a competent bat in a glove-first catcher and turn him into a star, it’s the Rays.

Randy Arozarena: A bit on the opposite side of the coin is Randy Arozarena, who a month into the season, has had a remarkably poor season. A year separated from an All-Star appearance, and the power stroke that the former Rookie Of The Year seemed to lock into last year has mysteriously dipped. With a player of Arozarena’s youth, caliber and consistency, it’s more of a matter of when and not if he breaks through. The injury-stricken Brewers rotation would be unwise to assume he’s incapable of preying on their young arms to bust the slump. 

William Contreras: It’s still astonishing that the Brewers managed to acquire this potential phenom. Simply put, Contreras is putting together a season that, if maintained, makes him a viable MVP candidate. He’s already at nearly a third of as many home runs as he hit last season, he’s managing to steal bases and as of Saturday, he sits at an even 1.00 OPS. Like I said, astonishing.

Willy Adames: The other beloved Willy on the team, playing his contract year in Milwaukee after being subject to much trade speculation over the offseason. Beloved as he is, it’s in Adames’ best interest to price himself out of Milwaukee’s range this season, and lately he’s been doing just that. The 127 OPS+ is more than enough production when you are talking about a shortstop who’s leading the league in outs above average. It would be nice to imagine Willy in a Brewers uniform for many seasons to come, but it might be better advice to just enjoy his sublime play while we can.w

Predictions
Both of these teams are riddled with question marks, so it feels oddly right to defer to the non-scientific intangibles. The Brewers are on their home turf, they have the better record, and they’ll take the series two to one.