Can the Brewers Work Their Magic Again With Dallas Keuchel?

Dallas Keuchel has been with the Seattle Mariners' Triple-A affiliate all year, playing in the Pacific Coast League, which is heavily slanted toward offense. Somehow, over the last 30 days there, he had an ERA of just 1.61, with improved swing and miss on his secondaries and strong ground-ball rates. If any other team made this move, it would be laughed at, but this is the Milwaukee Brewers, who have turned around Colin Rea, Julio Teherán, and (most recently) Joe Ross. Surely they can’t do it again… right?

Kuechel’s Arsenal
Possessing a sinker at 87 mph with a cutter, a slider and a changeup that would initially be a recipe for success, Keuchel knows how to use his arsenal. The sinker, in part because of its slow speed, gets 7” more vertical drop than the average MLB version. One inch can be the difference between a barrel and a ground ball, so that drop negates the slow velo somewhat and allows him to really sneak under the barrel. This is borne out by the incredible 72.5% ground-ball rate against his sinker over the last 30 days.

Also, keep in mind: Keuchel has always had a slow fastball. Even in his prime, he barely averaged 90 mph on the sinker. It doesn’t miss many bats, but then sinkers usually don’t, and a ground ball rate like that will absolutely play with a defensive infield containing Joey Ortiz, Willy Adames and Brice Turang. In fact, it’s one of the reasons why Keuchel was targeting Milwaukee this spring;

Then you get to his secondaries, which have proven much more effective than you would expect of a pitcher with the type of struggles Keuchel has had. His slider has become an increasingly interesting weapon. At 78 mph, it is a slower offering, but that allows good differential with his sinker, and this velo is again negated by the 10” of extra drop he gets on the pitch compared to MLB average, as well as 3” more horizontal break. As a result, in the last 30 days in Tacoma, Keuchel had a 62.5% whiff rate on the pitch and it became his main strikeout offering.

Then there’s a changeup that he uses to right-handed batters more often, that (again) had a good whiff rate of 36% in the last month. The change sits in the 80-mph range, with good vertical drop. Add to those a cutter he occasionally uses to try and steal strikes on the inside corner of the zone to right handers, as well as more up in the zone to change the hitter's eye level a bit. While the changeup blends well with the sinker at a different velocity band for deception, the cutter gets a little more rise and reduced horizontal movement that can really separate it as an outlier pitch for him. You can see below how the different pitches compared to each other at Triple-A:

Command Is Everything
Despite the swing and miss he’s had of late, Keuchel knows where his strengths lie, and it’s not in being a high-strikeout pitcher. He’s shown fantastic command this year and is pounding the bottom of the strike zone, while also having a high walk total. He will nibble around the edges which may actually be more beneficial in the majors due to the absence of the ABS system that has narrowed the strike zone at Triple A. He isn’t afraid of a free pass on occasion, with the knowledge that a ground ball can eliminate them quickly. It is something to monitor, as a 10.9% walk rate during the most successful portion of your season isn’t a glaring omen for success when you aren’t named Blake Snell, but if Keuchel can keep the ball down as he has so far in Triple-A, there’s no reason why he can’t continue to get outs in the major leagues.

Keuchel’s experience throwing the ball at the highest level lends him a certain level of understanding in how to get outs. The heavy ground ball rates mentioned above also lead to something else of which the Brewers may be in dire need: length. Pitching to contact allows pitchers to get outs significantly quicker than strikeout artists do, and Keuchel can certainly do that. He’s not likely to go eight innings of shutout ball, but he could play up as the likes of Ross, Bryse Wilson, Robert Gasser, and others have all done with the Crew and get past the sixth inning with more regularity. Our Caswell Dommisse wrote about that here.

Keuchel has an arsenal that’s able to get outs for the Brewers, with a crafty repertoire and well located pitches; the two could be a match made in heaven while the Brewers stretch out DL Hall or wait on Joe Ross to return to the rotation. It's maybe not going to be long-term success, but there's every chance the Brewers can get a month or six weeks of 2023 Teherán production that could stem the tide while they look to solidify their divisional lead. 

Wednesday's game wasn't ideal for Keuchel, with four innings, eight hits and two home runs with five earned runs in total. He showed what he can bring to the table early on with some pinpoint command, but the potent Rangers offense did manage to elevate against him. Only getting five ground balls on 16 balls in play would be untenable, but the hope is that that won't be a permanent state of affairs for Keuchel. The Brewers haven't had any time to work with him yet, beyond a couple of hours before the game Wednesday, but there is a route where Keuchel is a valuable innings eater and out-getter in the majors, despite an iffy introduction to the Brewers faithful. He only threw one slider Wednesday, for instance. In his next start, we could see more balanced utilization of all his stuff, and maybe the results will look more like Keuchel's recent returns in the minors. In the meantime, he pitched well enough to keep the game within range for the Crew, who found a way to win yet again.

What do you think, having seen Dallas Keuchel's first start? Did you see a road to success for the experienced veteran? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!