Can The Brewers’ Best Batters Keep It Up?

So far, the Brewers have exceeded offensive expectations and have the second-highest OPS in baseball at .795, right behind the Braves at .841. They're hitting home runs in 3.6 percent of their plate appearances, second only to Baltimore. Teams like the Dodgers, Orioles, and Atlanta were expected to be major threats at the plate this year, but other than adding Rhys Hoskins, the Brewers didn’t do much upgrading this winter, and they were in the bottom bucket for offensive performance last year. Furthermore, Hoskins is just the seventh-best qualified hitter by OPS+ on the team. What’s going on?

As of now, there are a few players with somewhat lopsided statistics steering the ship. A few of them have been around those numbers before, but for others, their figures are so anomalous that a return to Earth is bound to happen soon. Let’s break down the top three hitters so far, to see if they’re going to finish strong or struggle soon.

Christian Yelich - .333/.422/.744
The last time he averaged similar numbers for an entire season, he seemed like a future franchise great and had fully healthy knees and a (mostly) functional back. However, the years since that 2019 run have been marred by relative mediocrity, with a slight resurgence in 2023.

In his first 46 plate appearances of the season, Yelich seemed like he was back in MVP form. He was doing everything well - hitting the ball hard to all fields, avoiding strikeouts, and walking when he needed to. More importantly, his launch angle was up to 11.7 degrees, nearly identical to the 11.3-degree launch angle he had in 2019. From 2020-2023, his average launch angle ranged from 2.8 to 3.6 degrees, creating far more ground balls than ever before. His 2024 ground ball rate of 45.2% is more than 10% lower than the average ground ball rate of his past few seasons.

Unfortunately, it seems that Yelich has truly been cursed by the gods. He was recently placed on the 10-day IL due to a back strain. He’s had persistent issues throughout his baseball career with his back, and it seems they aren’t going away anytime soon. How this strain will affect his swing, bat path, bat speed, and other key characteristics of his hitting is yet to be seen, but it probably won’t be good. The concerns should be more focused on his launch angle than anything else, as his exit velocities have stayed remarkably consistent since his debut in 2015.

William Contreras - .358/.443/.597
You don’t have to be a Brewer fanatic (see what I did there?) to know that Contreras is one of the best catchers in baseball. In 2023, he was a plus defender and had the highest OPS out of all qualified catchers. With a mark of .825, he surpassed the likes of Adley Rutschman, Will Smith, and J.T. Realmuto. He’s off to another torrid start so far in 2024, leading the team in hits (24) and RBI (17).

One of the biggest changes seems to be in his average exit velocity. He’s scorching balls at an average speed of 96.0 mph, a big jump from his 2023 average of 91.3 mph. If we take a look at his hard-hit balls from 2023 vs. what sort of pitches he’s seeing in 2024, we can start to make sense of this.

Of the batted balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater in 2023, many of them were down the middle or inside. This seems to be right where he likes it. If we look at his hard-hit balls from 2024 though, things seem to have reflected across the y-axis.

Furthermore, if you look at all of the pitches he’s received so far in 2024, you can see that pitchers tend to pitch him away (which is pretty standard). The adjustments he’s made to hit outside pitches seem to be working wonders so far.

I doubt that Contreras will be able to sustain his stay in the 1.000 OPS club for very long, and as opposing teams get better scouting information on him, expect his numbers to regress slightly, but I think there are signs that a lasting and valuable adjustment has been made. It's yet to be seen if he's maintained his ability to hit inside pitches as well as he did in 2023. If so, I bid good luck to all opposing pitchers tasked with facing this young man.

Blake Perkins - .324/.390/.486
Technically, Willy Adames barely edges out Perkins as the third-most productive Brewer, but Perkins is a far more interesting case to analyze. While Adames has shown an ability to be a top-tier hitter, Perkins is barely more than a rookie, with just over 200 major-league plate appearances to his name. His 2023 OPS of .675 wasn’t much to write home about but that’s what makes this year’s performance that much more intriguing.

Unfortunately for him, his numbers might be the least sustainable of the players mentioned so far. First and foremost, his xBA of .256 and xSLG of .356 are both significantly lower than his actual numbers. Of his 12 total hits thus far, two have been home runs and 10 have been singles, and several of the singles could probably have been ruled errors. For example, take this ball that was ruled a single after a rough fielding job by Pete Alonso. 

Or this close call on a bunt to Jeimer Candelario:

His other hits are slightly more legitimate, but could also have been let through due to wacky fielder positioning or other external factors, things that bring down his expected hitting numbers to be a little more average. The Brewers outfield is a bit of a confusing mess right now, worsened by the Yelich injury, so I’m sure fans are happy to have any effective hitting they can get. Don’t expect these halcyon times to last, but Perkins is such a good defender that he can be valuable even if he can't keep up this production in the box.