Could Brewers and Texas Rangers Swing an Under-the-Radar Trade?

While the Milwaukee Brewers have been annual masters of winning big with small budgets, other clubs, like the Texas Rangers, spend a ton and still have ups and downs. According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Rangers owner Ray Davis wants to cut payroll to slide underneath MLB's luxury tax threshold. Though the club isn't looking to deal away their top assets, Nathaniel Lowe should be a serious target for clubs like the Brewers.

After winning the World Series in 2023, Texas still has the talent and desire to win another championship. That likely means the highest-priced stars and greatest-upside youngsters (e.g., third baseman Josh Jung) will not be available. Lowe, who is under team control through the 2026 season, lands somewhere in between, as an intriguing piece for the Brewers. He is projected to make $10.7 million in arbitration, and won a Silver Slugger Award in 2022 and a Gold Glove in 2023. Yes, he plays first base, where Milwaukee already has Rhys Hoskins penciled in. However, the Brewers would be wise to look for suitors to take on Hoskins's $18-million salary—or at least most of it—and prioritize Lowe as their starting first baseman instead. For that matter, if the team finds another avenue by which to trim payroll, Lowe and Hoskins could make an incredibly productive semi-platoon, with each playing more than half the time as they share first base and some designated hitter duties.

Among first basemen in 2024, Lowe ranked fourth in wRC+ (123), fifth in wOBA (.340) and sixth in fWAR (2.9). All this came despite his power taking a steep dip from a .492 slugging percentage in 2022, to .414 slugging in 2023 and .401 in 2024. Is the sapped "strength" a concern for a first baseman? Sure. But again, you have to look at his all-around value and the relative likelihood that Lowe's doubles and home runs jump back up a bit. Whether it's something in his swing or his decision-making, the Brewers can probably bring back some of his power.

As for the positives Lowe brings to the table, he posted a career-best .361 OBP last season (19th in MLB) and hasn't been below .357 since 2020. He also finished with a 12.6 BB%, good for fourth in baseball behind only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber. It's a huge asset to have a player in your lineup on base that much and working pitchers for free passes.

Regarding the drop in power numbers, Lowe might have traded in his pop for fewer swings and more contact. Unfortunately, if that is the case, it has led to weaker exit velocities and only slight gains in reaching base. Christian Yelich went through a similar stretch for a few years when discipline overtook aggressiveness by a sizable margin, leading to worse results. Take a look at how Lowe's swing decisions have changed across the past three seasons:

As you can see, his overall Swing% was down nearly 10% from his huge 2022 offensive campaign, when he went .302/.358/.492. The positive is that his swings outside the strike zone (O-Swing%) dropped significantly in two seasons. However, in 2024, Lowe swung 11.2% less often at pitches in the zone (Z-Swing%). Being more selective isn't necessarily a bad thing, but chances are he let too many pitches go by that should have been smashed. And considering his contact percentage in the zone (Z-Contact%) went up nearly 4% from 2022 to last season, it seems clear he wasn't taking as many aggressive swings when he decided to hack.

Again, his gains in on-base value didn't skyrocket, so passiveness didn't create the value he might have hoped for in recent years. For Lowe to return to his 2022 form, the advice could be as simple as: swing more often, attack more strikes and wield the lumber with malicious intent.

Despite some concerns about the past two years, there were encouraging signs to close out 2024. Lowe slashed .269/.376/.435 in the second half of the season, including a .931 OPS over his final 104 plate appearances. Whether he figured something out or it was just a hot streak, it was a fantastic way to finish the year. And if you believe in things like "clutch performance," it doesn't hurt that Lowe owns a career .291 average and .838 OPS with runners in scoring position (RISP). Even better, in three of the past four seasons with RISP, Lowe has hit over .300 with an OPS of at least .898 in those years.

In the field, Lowe runs circles around Hoskins. Not only did Lowe win a Gold Glove in 2022, but his defensive metrics were well ahead of Hoskins's in 2024. Among first basemen with at least 750 innings played at the "cold corner," the pair ranked as such in three advanced stats:

Outs Above Average (OAA)

• Lowe: 7 OAA (3rd)
• Hoskins: -4 OAA (15th)

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)

• Lowe: 1 DRS (10th)
• Hoskins: -3 DRS (15th)

Fielding Run Value (FRV)

• Lowe: 5 FRV (3rd)
• Hoskins: -3 FRV (15th)

While defensive metrics have their flaws, especially in a one-year sample, they show a sizable disparity in this case. Plus, if you watched a handful of innings with Hoskins manning first base, you noticed how slow and clunky he was most of the time. Those defensive concerns led to challenges in creating ideal lineups and keeping the DH spot open for other bats throughout the season. Sticking a quality glove there for 150 games allows for more flexibility in roster construction and day-to-day strategy.
 

Marcus Semien and Nathaniel Lowe have been named as a 2024 Gold Glove Finalist! #StraightUpTX | @DLLS_Rangers pic.twitter.com/HGMQ2WBDvC

— DLLS Sports (@DLLS_Sports) October 15, 2024

As for what the Rangers might want in return for Lowe, that can be tricky. Their club desperately needs bullpen help, but Devin Williams is too high a price to pay for two years of Lowe on his own. Outside of Jung or their young starting pitching, Texas doesn't match up with the Brewers terribly well. And they aren't giving up any of those aforementioned players without getting much more in return. But Milwaukee has a glut of bullpen arms with MLB experience and potential to dangle. Would Elvis Peguero and Joel Payamps be enough for the Rangers, or too much for the Brewers? Is there a young arm to pair with a veteran? If Texas is truly focused on relievers and a desire to save money, that's the type of combo that could work.

Do you see a fit for Lowe and the Brewers? Would you be willing to dump Hoskins for salary relief, even if it meant getting little proven talent in return? It would be a gamble, particularly if you fear a Hoskins bounceback, but it's one that could help transform the lineup into a more consistent threat with improved defense at first base and more options to utilize the DH role. Here's to some action at the Winter Meetings!