Why Trading Devin Williams Makes Sense

3 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

The Brewers' bullpen is stacked, and Devin Williams's value has never been higher. One contender may be getting desperate. Is the timing right to trade the Crew''s relief ace?

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

With the retooling of the team following the acquisition of talented shortstop Joey Ortiz and electric arm DL Hall, there are rumors swirling around Willy Adames and also on Devin Williams. The Brewers have a maelstrom of variety and talent in their bullpen that allows them this option to re-tool their roster, and the haul for Williams could be significant.

How valuable is Devin Williams?
Williams has an ERA that starts with a “one”, something only Emmanuel Clase can also claim. Since 2020, Williams's 1.75 ERA is the best in baseball, among pitchers with over 200 innings, alongside a sparkling 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings and 0.5 home runs per nine. His "airbender" is one of the deadliest pitches in baseball. He’s shown durability and elite performance that no one else can match, and with two years of team control remaining, his value is exceptionally high for a reliever. Anyone acquiring Devin Williams's arm will be getting the best reliever in baseball, and there are several teams who would love to have a closer of his caliber on their roster.

Why trade him now?
While Williams's value is high, there are a few other factors at play surrounding the uncertainty of the Brewers 2024 season. This roster is heavily reliant on rookies and young performers finding their feet, and on getting the right side of some wide potential variance in the starting rotation. Featuring the high-octane Abner Uribe (1.76 ERA), who could take on the closer’s role, along with Joel Payamps (2.55), Hoby Milner (1.82) and the likes of Trevor Megill and Elvis Peguero, the Brewers' talent-laden bullpen should be able to cope with the loss of Williams if it means boosting the team elsewhere.

Furthermore, with the acquisition of Jakob Junis, the Brewers are left with the up-and-coming Robert Gasser; injury returnee Aaron Ashby; and veteran newcomer Joe Ross fighting it out for the final spots in the rotation. With every possibility of Ashby and/or Ross ending up in the bullpen, it further cramps the relievers they have in tow already, meaning someone is likely to be moved. Williams's limited years of control and not-insubstantial salary makes him a prime candidate to be that guy. On top of that, the simple fact is this: the airbender is a screwball. This matters, because screwballs are notorious for putting an immense load on the elbow and shoulder, and it could be just a matter of time before Williams finds this out. 

What would the Brewers demand?
Two years of Devin Williams commands a strong package, but the Brewers have very specific needs if they want someone to impact their major-league team right away. Barring a trade of Adames (in which case another high-ceiling middle infielder could be on the cards), it’s rotation, rotation, rotation for the Brewers. Hall has the stuff and developing command to be a strong number two, but even at that, the rotation looks light, meaning a mid-rotation starter should be the priority. As mentioned above, they have enough of the number four or five starters. A higher-ceiling arm has to be the focus, whether in the long or short term.

Trade Option

New York Yankees get Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers get Chase Hampton and Henry Lalane

The Yankees are here to win this season, and having lost out on Josh Hader, they may be eyeing up his former teammate. They didn’t go big to get Juan Soto only to watch the Orioles run away with the division, and a shutdown closer will help them regain control of the AL East. They may be loathe to part with Hampton, though he's likely the only target the Brewers would entertain as the headliner for this trade. Will Warren doesn't quite have the ceiling to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. Devin Williams will also very likely bring a Qualifying offer compensatory pick if he isn't extended before the end of 2025, adding to his value for the Yankees.

Warren recorded a 3.35 ERA last season in the upper levels of the minors, but his profile is more that of a third or fourth starter, due to a lack of command. He wouldn’t be the first pitcher the Brewers have helped access their stuff more effectively, and Warren is a consistent performer with a 60-grade fastball-slider combination, per Baseball America.

Hampton's heater grades out similarly. It shows outstanding induced vertical break, which should help him generate a lot of swing-and-miss at the top of the strike zone. To complement that offering, he two potentially plus breakers in his slider and curveball, both of which have sharp action. Hampton is still developing, finishing last season at Double A with a focus on learning how to best use his arsenal (and especially his fastball), all of which came after striking out 77 batters in 47 innings of work at High A. Hampton has the potential to be a number-two or number-three starter, especially if his breaking pitches can continue to develop, with an expected arrival time in the big league after the All-Star break in 2024.

Henry Lalane is a helium-filled prospect from the Dominican Republic who, despite never playing full-season ball, has some of the best command and stuff you'll see from someone his age. Lalane is a left handed 6-foot-7 monster with projected 60 grades on his fastball, slider, and command. The cherry atop the sundae is a 65-grade changeup, per BA. His changeup was truly devastating in his 34 ⅓ innings in the complex leagues last season, with a 53% whiff rate, but it's his command of his arsenal at such a young age that really stands out. He won’t be 20 years old until May, but his raw athleticism and feel for spin could make him a gem in the Brewers farm system. 

Hampton could help the Brewers straightaway, while Lalane develops slowly, but both have the potential to be top-of-the-rotation arms. This is a slightly lopsided trade, but the Yankees need to compete well in 2024 with what they've done so far this offseason, and that may just help this get over the line. For the Brewers, it's a high-upside package like this that makes moving Williams a palatable possibility.

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What do you think Brewer Fanatics? Would you allow Williams to be traded? And if so, what would you want back? Let us know in the comments below.

 

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Yes, the team needs to make room in the bullpen for a starter arm and 1 of Williams or Payamps needs to go.

I prefer Williams, and for the reasons you’ve already given with special emphasis on potential injury.

Payamps also could return a nice piece if teams deem the package for Williams too painful.

The Yankees trade would be an outstanding one for this team and one if offered has to be taken.

I've been advocating for this for a few months.  You can call it whatever you want, but this year is a rebuild/reboot/retool year.  They need time to get the youngsters comfortable along with sorting out the various logjams.  Sort that out, get the starting pitchers figured out, then they'll be back where we would like to see them.  I fear that this year they will be hovering around the .500 mark all season and that alone is the best reason to trade Williams.  It makes no sense to have a top of the line closer if he isn't needed and you have holes to fill.  

Could not agree more! Get it done.

When I saw this article I thought anyone is for sale for the right comp.   This would be the right comp.

Get a huge return like the one mentioned or stay with him for now.