Can DL Hall Force His Way Into The Playoff Rotation Conversation?

DL Hall has looked filthy since returning to the Brewers roster, especially in the usage and command of his offspeed offerings. It’s been a slow return to form for Hall, after a 7.71 ERA in April that involved playing through a knee injury impacting his pitches' movement and velocity in a notable way. In 15 ⅔ innings since his return, Hall has posted a 0.57 ERA, with significant jumps in velocity, movement, command--and desirable outcomes. He is currently being used as a spot starter and long reliever, and they’re keeping him stretched out for these roles, which could allow him to push for a starting role in October.

One of the reasons this could be on the table is the variability in performance from those competing for the third starting pitcher spot. Tobias Myers has regressed, by the eye test, for a little longer than the statistics show. He’s got a lower swinging strike rate than any of his contemporaries, while averaging 91.5 mph exit velocities since the start of August, and while Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale have been very impressive of late with intriguingly different arsenals, there is a blow-up potential with both that may give some cause for concern.

I could go into a lot of detail on who I think would suit best for this role, but let’s focus on Hall for now. The breaking pitches have looked phenomenal since he returned, generating a lot of swing-and-miss, and some of the swings make it appear that hitters are struggling to pick up the pitch out of the hand. With a changeup, a looping curve and a sweeping slider, he has a lot of different movement profiles to enable him to be effective against both left- and right-handed hitters. The changeup tunnels beautifully with the fastball, while the depth difference between the curveball and slider can make both difficult to square up.

As a pitcher struggling in two-strike counts earlier in the year, with many hitters sitting on what was quite a hittable fastball, it’s notable that Hall’s mixing in a lot more breaking pitches in two-strike counts of late. Compare the two diagrams from earlier in the year and the period since Aug. 1:

Hall is leaning far more heavily on the slider and changeup to finish off opposing hitters, and it’s been mightily effective, jumping from a swinging-strike rate of 11.1% up to 20.1% since Aug. 1 in putaway counts. The command of these pitches that are pounding the bottom of the strike zone has been very impressive, and the biggest reason for his success in these counts.

One slight worry, however, is that fastball shape, which is much improved but is hovering between a plus offering and a below-average one. Before digressing, I should say it’s markedly improved from the meatball he had earlier in the season:

He’s getting more rise, and averaging over 2 mph in terms of “perceived velocity,” as well as a flatter angle when entering the zone. All of this combines to enhance a pitch that should have a lot of hitters swinging under it. However, he still isn’t consistently reached the registers that he will need to make it a genuine swing-and-miss offering:

As you can see, crossing the 15” mark is really key for Hall, in terms of how much swing-and-miss he gets with the four seam fastball. Hall’s fastball was graded as an 80 pitch on the scouting scale (i.e. the same level as Jacob Misiorowski’s) because of that ride, but until he reaches 15” and above on a more consistent basis, it just won’t play like that. However, it is limiting hard contact extremely well, and as such, I could argue that it’s quite close to that elite offering he's hunting.

Since coming back, hitters have averaged an exit velocity of 81 mph on Hall’s fastball, with a 20% pop-up rate and 41.7% fly-ball rate. Pairing those velocities with anything in the air is a recipe for cheap, quick outs, which can allow Hall to work deeper into games and perhaps be effective on the fastball in a different way. As a cherry on top he’s only allowed one line drive in the Majors since the start of August.

The fact that I’m even discussing a DL Hall start in October shows just how far he’s come since the start of the year, and potentially how much more he can provide after surgery in the offseason to heal the lingering issue he’s managed for years. A red-hot September might force him into the reckoning for a Game 3 start, especially if the Brewers feel he has the mentality to hold up in the bright lights of playoff baseball. It may not be a long start, maybe only twice through the order, but with the way Hall has been pitching, it is certainly not something to rule out.

What do you think of DL Hall’s return to the Brewers? Have you been impressed enough to slot him into a playoff rotation? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!