Exploring Trade Partners For Devin Williams: Boston Red Sox

Why They Need Him
For the first half of the 2024 season, Boston’s pitching staff was a point of strength. Their team ERA of 3.63 was the fifth-best in MLB. While Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford led the rotation, Kenley Jansen’s 2.16 ERA and 19 saves were reminiscent of his tenure in Los Angeles. However, after the Midsummer Classic, Boston’s pitching completely fell off the pace and put up a second-half ERA of 4.63. Every pitcher in the rotation except Houck saw their numbers quickly regress, while the team was desperately trying to claw their way into October, culminating in the team’s third consecutive playoff miss.

With an 81-81 record in one of the more competitive divisions in baseball, one might assume that the Red Sox will need a whole lot more than a rental closer to be competitive. That may be true if they want to win the World Series, but the team isn’t that far from having meaningful championship equity. It may not be apparent to those who don't follow the team closely, but their position players are exceptional. In addition to posting a combined OPS of .735 in 2024 (8th in MLB), the team accumulated 49 Defensive Runs Saved (6th in MLB). More established talents like Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers have helped rookies like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaeala shine. Speaking of Duran, in his first full season, he led the league in plate appearances (735), doubles (48), and triples (14) while posting 23 DRS (2nd in MLB) and 8.7 rWAR (5th in MLB).

So the missing pieces lie in the pitching staff. As mentioned earlier, there are some names that showed the ability to be great but the lack of sustainability ultimately caused the downfall of the team. The rotation will be helped by Lucas Giolito (who just exercised his $19 million-player option) returning from a season lost to Tommy John surgery, as well as the aforementioned Houck and Crawford having more time to develop over the offseason. 

On the bullpen side, Jansen is now a free agent and actually began his offseason early after being placed on the injured list, leaving the team before their final series against the Rays. Thus, it would be astonishing if he were to somehow find himself back on the team with a new deal in 2025, so the team will need a new closer. Greg Weissert had a good year and actually finished 16 games, but he picked up just one save. He could be in contention for the job, but with poor strikeout and whiff rates, he doesn’t profile like your ideal closer.

If Boston wants a knockout piece to complement a league-leading lineup, there simply isn’t a better trade target than Devin Williams.

What They Have to Offer
The Red Sox have a solid amount of young talent down on their farm. With a whopping six names on the MLB Top 100 list, there are plenty of options to choose from if Milwaukee decides to do business. That being said, trading a top-of-the-line prospect for a rental closer is not how they prefer to operate, so I wouldn’t expect Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, or any other marquee name packaged in a potential deal—unless the Brewers pony up some more players. Personally, I would target Jhostynxon Garcia as my main prize, simply because he has a top-five all-time name, but with his stellar minor-league results (.892 OPS, 459 PA), his stock is probably at an all-time high. Furthermore, the Brewers are stacked in the outfield, so it’s not a position of priority for the front office.

More realistically, the Red Sox would be most willing to part with a prospect who’s a little further out from making the show. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (#17 Boston prospect) is a righty starter who pitched to a 2.91 ERA over 89 ⅔ innings spread across Single-A Salem and High-A Greenville. He’s noted as having good arm-side run and carry on his fastball while sporting a slider in the upper 80s with good depth. Jedixson Paez (#23) had similar numbers this season, although he spent more time in High-A and finished with a 3.17 ERA, helped by his strong command and a decent secondary arsenal consisting of a curveball and changeup.

With the existing logjam in Boston’s major-league lineup (exacerbated by the rich talent at the top of the prospect funnel), there’s an opportunity to offload some top position player assets that the Red Sox won’t be able to utilize. Infielder Chase Meidroth (#11) slashed .293/.437/.401 over a full season in Triple-A Worcester at just 22 years old. He would ordinarily be too expensive for this type of deal, but because of the talent in front of him, there could be an outside chance he gets sent off this offseason. Mikey Romero (#16) is a middle infielder who spent most of his season with High-A Greenville, finishing with an .817 OPS over 276 plate appearances. With the free agency of Willy Adames raising questions about the future of the shortstop position in Milwaukee, Romero could be a contingency plan with pretty decent upside. 

With their most heated rivals making the World Series last season, there’s more fan pressure than ever for Boston’s front office to make some impactful moves this offseason. Compounded with the incumbent talent on the field, the Red Sox are closer to being contenders than you think, and Devin Williams could be the final piece of the puzzle... if the price is right.