How Do The Brewers Stack Up Against the Chicago Cubs in the Postseason?

With the Brewers having virtually guaranteed themselves the NL Central title already, the only way they would end up facing the Cubs in the Wild Card Series is if the Baby Bears finished in the third Wild Card position. At the moment, though, that seems genuinely plausible. As an added wrinkle of this particular matchup, the two teams could determine its viability on the field on the final weekend of the season, and if they do end up playing in the postseason, it will be a weeklong stay in Milwaukee for the North Siders.

Chicago Cubs
Record: 78-72
Runs Scored/Allowed Per Game: 5.0 RS/G, 4.4 RA/G, +86 Run Differential
Season Series Against Brewers: 5-5 (with three to play)

What They Do Well
Oddly, the Cubs were built around pitching and defense, but they've won mostly because (and mostly when) they score runs. Thirteen teams have hit more home runs and six have stolen more bases, but only the Rays appear on both lists. Only six teams have drawn more walks, and they have an above-average team contact rate.

That's not to say that, at times, they can't be an excellent pitching and defense outfit. Justin Steele has faded slightly from Cy Young consideration, but he's been one of the half-dozen best starting pitchers in the National League this season. The bullpen, if and when closer Adbert Alzolay returns from his forearm issue, has good depth, although it lacks the dazzling array of reliable hurlers on whom Craig Counsell can lean. Only three teams have accrued more Defensive Runs Saved than the Cubs, and they're even better than that fact might suggest. During the season, they've found above-average defensive solutions to trouble spots at third base (converted second baseman Nick Madrigal) and in center field (rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong). 

Where They're Vulnerable
At no point this season have more than three of the five spots in the Chicago starting rotation seemed locked in and steady. That's true of most teams, and it's slightly less important in a best-of-three playoff series than in a longer one, but it hints at a bigger picture. As attrition has announced itself near the end of the year, the whole pitching staff has worn thin. Marcus Stroman is only working in relief right now. In fact, three-fifths of the team's Opening Day rotation is currently stuck in its bullpen, thanks to a combination of injury, ineffectiveness, and usurpation.

In their sudden tailspin (facilitating the Brewers' cruise-control division title, coming soon to a visiting clubhouse somewhere), though, it's the offense that has let down the Cubs again, after all. The reality is that it's an average offense, capable of looking much better than that when the right concatenation of hitters get hot but just as liable to look brutally bad for a fortnight. 

Don't Let Him Beat You
In this unusual circumstance, the Brewers will get the chance to push the Cubs so hard at the end of the season that even if they survive to earn a chance to face Milwaukee in the Wild Card Series, they won't be able to have Justin Steele make any starts within it. That would be great news, as Steele has had a dazzling 2023. The player the Crew would most need to stop, then, would be Cody Bellinger.

Aside from being Chicago's obvious MVP, the left-handed slugger had nine hits, six runs, and five RBI when the Cubs visited Miller Park in early July. As we know, the Crew's home field is one at which certain hitters seem to especially appreciate the sightlines and the hitting background, and Bellinger is one of them. He has a career .339/.,391/.581 line there, and that doesn't include the go-ahead home run he hit in Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS. Look for Craig Counsell to get Hoby Milner ready every time Bellinger's spot in the order draws near, if this matchup materializes.

Overall Prognosis
The Brewers are a better team than the Cubs. They've proved it, by outlasting them and running away from them in the NL Central. If the two teams are pitted against one another in a win-or-go-home series, though, Chicago (like just about any playoff-caliber team, but more so than the Reds or Marlins, for sure) could be a dangerous opponent. It would be sweet to get such lasting and emphatic bragging rights, but it might be better for the Crew to establish them by being the agents of the Cubs' demise during the regular season. That's still very much in play.