How the New Brewers Can Balance Their Offensive Attack

It's no secret that hitting a bunch of bombs is the best path to offensive success for MLB teams. More home runs often lead to more strikeouts, and for many years, experts have downplayed the negative impact of strikeouts. However, the top offenses have enough quality hitters to keep their strikeout percentage (K%) in the league's upper half, while teams with less power can still benefit from better ball-in-play efficiency.

Unfortunately for the Milwaukee Brewers, their 2023 offense ranked in the bottom half of baseball in both home runs (25th) and K% (17th). That was a significant reason for their 4.49 runs-per-game average, which ranked 17th among the 30 clubs. In some ways, they were fortunate to average that many runs scored.



In 2023, eight teams ranked between 16th and 30th in both home runs and K%. Five of those clubs were 22nd or worse in runs scored, including the bottom three offenses in the Detroit Tigers (4.08 runs/game), Chicago White Sox (3.96) and Oakland A's (3.61). The Colorado Rockies were right behind the Brewers at 4.45 runs, while somehow, the San Francisco Giants averaged 4.68 runs (good for 12th) despite being below-average in K% and home runs. The 2022 season was even more lopsided, as all seven MLB teams in the bottom half of homers and strikeouts were ranked 21st or worse in runs, including the four lowest-scoring clubs.

Milwaukee finished third in dingers that season, outweighing their 22nd-ranked K% to produce the 10th-best offense. Technically, they scored fewer runs per game in 2022 (4.48), but the run environment was so much lower that season that the Brewers were a top-10 lineup. But as many might recall, that offense felt incredibly inconsistent, with more peaks and valleys than the Swiss Alps and more holes than Swiss cheese. This isn't to debate the merits of "relying too much on the home run," but there is something to be said for balance in a lineup. In the last three seasons, only two teams have been in the top 15 in scoring when finishing in the bottom half of MLB in home runs and K%.

Did GM Matt Arnold consider these two statistical markers when retooling the offense? First, take a look at the breakdown of home runs and K% by position last season for the Brewers:



As you can see, the Brewers didn't rank in the top half of both statistics for any position. They were close in a couple of spots, but mediocrity won the day. The hope is that by enhancing these stats in multiple positions, the overall numbers will reach ideal levels. Teams who finished 15th or better in only one of these two stats had a top-10 offense 14 times since 2021. So, how did Milwaukee address these concerns, and how might they improve internally?

Catcher
William Contreras was fantastic last season. Plus, his profile has room for more power. He could increase his homer total by a double-digit figure in 2024. If his K% stays in the same range, that's elite pop and contact from the most demanding defensive position in the game. Of course, adding Gary Sánchez as a free agent also addresses the home run issue. Last year's backup backstop, Victor Caratini, hit just seven dingers in his 218 plate appearances as a catcher. Sánchez blasted 18 in just 20 more chances (when catching), a far more viable threat when Contreras gets a day off. He strikes out a much higher clip, but the added power is exponentially more impactful than the increase in K% at this position.

First Base
Rhys Hoskins was the splashy free-agent addition for the Brewers, focusing on his power at first base. Hoskins has averaged 30 homers in his previous four full seasons, seven more than all of Milwaukee's first basemen hit last season. His likely 24-25% strikeout rate will be a downgrade from what the collective did last season at first base. However, 137 plate appearances as first basemen were taken up by Luke Voit (0 HR, 37.2 K%) and Owen Miller (1 HR, 24.5 K%), with frightening results. The power bump and overall offensive improvement far outweigh the added whiffs.

Second Base
The offensive struggle of Brice Turang has been documented extensively, and the Brewers are looking at other options. The problem with Turang's output is that if you are going to hit so few homers, you must be a better contact hitter and on-base guy. His overall .285 OBP and 21% strikeout rate, without any power, can't justify a regular starting position.

Arnold acquired several players who could handle second base, including Oliver Dunn, Christian Arroyo and Joey Ortiz. Ortiz seems to be the most likely candidate, though he could start at third base, too. Take minor-league stats for what they're worth, but Ortiz's K% in Double-A and Triple-A the past two seasons has been between 14.8% and 17.7%. He has proved to be a solid bat-to-ball prospect, and many believe his power will develop. He hit 19 homers between the top two minor-league levels in 2022 and nine more in Triple-A last season, in only 88 games. He could improve both statistics for the big-league club, and the Brewers wouldn't lose any defense, either.

Third Base
The hot corner started hot in 2023, but it was mostly a hot mess. Brian Anderson hit just six homers and owned a dreadful 30.3 K% in 208 plate appearances as a third baseman. Andruw Monasterio struck out only 17.8% of the time, but hit just one long ball in 202 times to bat. What happens at third base this season will be interconnected with who plays second base, and will likely be an early-season puzzle for the Brewers to solve.

Ideally, Co-Brewers Minor League Player of the Year Tyler Black grabs this spot. Though he doesn't project to have top-level home run power, his overall hitting ability screams All-Star potential. He hit 18 homers in the minors last season, with 55 total extra-base hits and a K% below 19%. While he likely wouldn't boost the Brewers' third base homer production from last season, the K% would improve, and he'd bring an uncommon element to the position: speed on the bases (55 steals last season). If they go with Dunn at third base, he should bring some added power, but the strikeout rate trends toward 30% or worse, based on his minor-league results.

Shortstop
Not much is likely to change here. The position belongs to Willy Adames, and both his home runs and strikeouts were within his usual error bars. His overall power needs a rebound this season for Milwaukee, as his slugging percentage fell 51 points (to .407) from 2022 to 2023. One fringe positive could be Ortiz filling in for Adames instead of Turang on the rare days on which Adames takes a break.

Outfield
This is the sector in which things could go in any number of directions. Christian Yelich simply needs to copy his 2023 season to help this group, posting a 20.4 K% and hitting 17 homers as an outfielder to go with his .381 OBP. The rest of the outfield crew has its pros, cons and uncertainties.

• Jackson Chourio: The potential is enormous, but he's young, and the game power likely isn't there yet. If he can meet many projections of hitting 16-17 home runs while striking out less than 23% of the time, that's an immediate boost to the outfield's output.
• Sal Frelick: Assuming he's not playing third base regularly, more Frelick in the outfield will cut down the position's K% a ton, even if it sacrifices some power. In fairness, Blake Perkins (3 HR, 28.4 K%) and Anderson (3 HR, 28.9 K%) didn't set a high bar to clear.
• Garrett Mitchell: The superbly athletic outfielder has yet to develop the power many thought he'd gain, but it's his K% that is a significant concern. Mitchell has certainly produced in his limited MLB time (.795 OPS), but with minor-league strikeout rates in the 27% range—and a 38.3 K% in 141 MLB plate appearances—he needs to show more power to offset the whiffs.
• Joey Wiemer: Will his revamped hitting setup and swing reduce strikeouts and help him unlock his power in games? It felt like Wiemer struck out more than the 28.3% of the time he actually did in 2023. The 13 homers were nice, but he still needs improvements in both areas to make a positive difference in the Brewers' lineup.

Designated Hitter
The Brewers have not taken advantage of the DH spot in the two seasons in which it has been an official, permanent part of the NL. Only Contreras's 135 plate appearances and the trade deadline acquisition of Mark Canha saved Milwaukee from having a truly disturbing output from the DH role. As the DH, Canha hit three homers in 78 plate appearances, with a minuscule 6.4 K%. Meanwhile, Jesse Winker hit one long ball with a 26% strikeout rate, racking up the most plate appearances in that spot. And Tellez (3 HR, 31.5 K%) didn't fare much better in his 73 DH plate appearances.

The 2024 season brings more reliable options. With the bevy of choices at various positions, the DH role will feature a mix of better hitters than in past years. Yelich, Hoskins, Sánchez, Contreras and Black should lead the way on a rotational basis, with Jake Bauers potentially getting an early opportunity to get swings against right-handed pitching.

On a basic level, it appears that Arnold and the Brewers built an offense that addressed their key inefficiencies from last season. In some areas, the power should be boosted (e.g., first base, catcher); in others, the strikeout percentage should improve (third base, outfield). Second base could be the wild card for which way the stats swing. And simply eliminating large numbers of at-bats for subpar hitters will chip away at both. Whether there's enough give and take of home runs to strikeouts throughout the field remains to be seen. Will the sum of the Brewers' parts be enough for the lineup to carry the club more often than it has the past few seasons?