In Sophomore Season, Jackson Chourio Remains Frustratingly Far from a Finished Product

When Jackson Chourio drew a walk in the third inning on Monday night, it was just his fourth of the season. The 21-year-old’s 2.2% walk rate is the lowest among qualified hitters this year. In 40 games, he’s had two stretches of at least 70 plate appearances without a walk.

“We know Chourio is allergic to a walk,” quipped Pat Murphy, who has repeatedly warned that his talented young outfielder must refine his plate discipline to enjoy sustained success against big-league pitching.

Chourio will never run a high walk rate in his prime seasons—nor should he. With lightning-quick hands that can get the barrel to nearly any pitch in or near the strike zone, an aggressive approach allows Chourio to shine. He should swing often at strikes, to maximize his electrifying talent.

The aggressiveness has gone too far in Chourio’s sophomore season, though, and is restricting his production. After a torrid finish to his debut campaign, he has often looked less polished to begin his follow-up year. The former top prospect’s 103 wRC+ is slightly above average, but it’s a step back from his 117 wRC+ mark as a rookie, and advanced metrics that consider swing decisions and quality of contact over pure results say he’s been a below-average hitter. His .292 xwOBA is in the 17th percentile of hitters, and his 92 DRC+ is underwhelming.

Chourio’s 44% chase rate on pitches outside the zone is third among qualified hitters. According to Statcast, he’s one of 16 hitters who do not have a positive run value in the chase zone. These pitches are typically favorable for hitters, because they are most often taken for balls. Chourio has swung at so many of them that his value against them so far has been neutral.

Chourio has made 42 outs on out-of-zone pitches this year, the 18th-most in baseball. Murphy believes that his quickness and hand-eye coordination have actually worked against him at times to create some of those outs.

“For the normal guy, some of those pitches are fouled off, and they live for another pitch,” he said. “Chourio, his hand-eye’s so good that he puts those balls in play.”

Simply telling a hitter to watch more pitches is rarely a productive solution, particularly for one with Chourio’s tools. He shouldn’t take more pitches he can hit for strikes. Rather, it’s up to him to develop an awareness that yields more nuanced swing decisions, without straying from his strengths. He might also need a swing adjustment that leads to less contact; swinging so much and whiffing so rarely is a recipe for a high-wire profile.

“Discerning between, ‘This is borderline, I don't need to swing at it early,’ or, ‘This is a ball, but because I have one strike, I'm putting it in play, and I'm good enough, and my hands are fast enough, that I can put it in play,’” Murphy explained.

Chourio has also shown that he’s not a finished product in the field. Almost exclusively a center fielder in the minor leagues, he shifted to the outfield corners last year. While his reads were questionable at times (particularly in left field), his athleticism helped him accrue 12 Defensive Runs Saved and 6 Outs Above Average.

After injuries to Blake Perkins and Garrett Mitchell, Chourio is back at his natural position, partially due to his comfort level there and the club’s preference to keep Gold Glove winner Sal Frelick in right field. He’s made two run-scoring misplays within the last week: letting a ground ball roll past him against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, and taking a poor route on a fly ball Monday night that turned an inning-ending flyout for Freddy Peralta into a bases-clearing double.

“He's going to be a great player, and mistakes like this or plays like this that he doesn't make, he'll learn from,” Murphy said postgame.

Chourio has looked capable in center, outside of those two gaffes, and he’s continued to show flashes of the talent that made him a highly-regarded prospect. The development process remains ongoing, though. Chourio demonstrated his adaptability throughout the minors and last season, and he must do so again.

“He's in his second year in the big leagues, and he's 21 years old,” Murphy said. “So I think it's going to be a process. But I’ve noticed little changes lately, so that’s good.”