'It Wore on Him Mentally': William Contreras and the Challenge of the Long Season

Want to see the last time in 2024 that William Contreras pulled a ball with a launch angle over 1°? No? Too bad. Here it is, anyway.

At the time, you'd never have guessed that he wouldn't pull a ball in the air again all season. First of all, it was still August—Aug. 28, to be exact, when the Giants were in Milwaukee. It's not normal to go an entire month (plus three games worth of postseason play) without hitting a ball in the air to your pull field, almost no matter who you are. 

Secondly, though, at that moment, Contreras was riding a wave. In July and August of last year, he tapped into his power in a way we've rarely seen from him before, as over 15% of his batted balls were pulled in the air. To say the very least, Contreras is dangerous when he can hit the ball that way, because almost no matter where he hits it, he tends to hit it hard. Just as plainly, though, that's never been his strength. He generates plenty of exit velocity, but has long had a tendency to put it on the ground too much. He has a persistent launch angle problem, and when he does elevate, it's more often to right and center than to left.

Again, though, there was a moment last summer when that changed, and it could have made an even bigger difference for the Brewers than it ended up making. Contreras raised his sights, hit more balls in the air, and accessed way more power over a short span. Somewhere along the way, though, his heavy seasonal workload caught up to him. He still found ways to be valuable in September, and even (although playing with a knee brace and a limp) in the playoffs. His OBP for the final month of the season was .385. However, he only managed six extra-base hits in 91 plate appearances, and slugged .419. Over the previous two months, he'd swatted 27 extra-base hits, including 11 homers.

Many have wondered whether more days off are in order this year—if, in effect, the Brewers have to protect Contreras from himself. His manager acknowledged that the team has to do that with some players, to some extent, but when it comes to Contreras, he has a habit of adopting that mixture of resignation and barely-suppressed adulation normally reserved for fathers whose sons endlessly surprise (and terrify) them.

"Probably not," Pat Murphy said on a sigh earlier this month, when asked whether Contreras will accept more days off. "I think he’s mentally gonna be better, so why would you sit a guy who’s mentally ready to go? When this is a game of Freddie Freeman going 162, Yadier Molina catching 140."

Contreras's ambition brings a twinkle to Murphy's eye; he likes that his catcher is unabashed about wanting to win MVP Awards and prove himself the best at his position in the game. He believes Contreras is capable of all that, too—but has been around the game too long to believe that anyone can bear the full physical and mental weight of the 162-game grind without showing signs of it.

"He’s different than other people," Murphy said. "Incredible strength, incredibly conditioned, [but] everybody wears down mentally. And I think that’s what it did; it wore on him mentally."

Contreras also showed physical signs of wear and tear, not only with whatever leg injury he nursed into October but by swinging slower and pulling the ball less often. In this chart, the marked point is his data for September; the one on the far right is for July.

Impressively, Contreras still made fairly solid swing decisions down the stretch, despite whatever difficulties he began to have with mustering the health, energy, and concentration to play each day. Sometimes, though, he seemed to accept a chance at a single by pushing the ball the other way, even when he had leverage within a count and could have tried to access more pop. Defensively, too, his attention to detail waned slightly as the innings and games piled up.

This spring, Contreras is doing things that suggest he could get right back to where he was in the heat of last summer. He's pulling the ball, including doing so in the air. He's hitting the snot out of it. A long season looms ahead, and while his manager tried to convey the importance of not burning too hot or too soon, Contreras is still the player who spends the most cumulative time in batting cages, the weight room, other practice areas, and even meetings. He believes in the work he's putting in, and in the return he'll get on that investment. Murphy is far from alone, among his coaches and peers, in sharing that faith. More consistent power could be on tap, and if it is, Contreras is a very real candidate to bring home fancier hardware next offseason.