It’s Going to Be a While Before We See Quinn Priester in Milwaukee

Back in mid-March, it was announced that Quinn Priester would be starting the season on the injured list due to thoracic outlet syndrome, a nerve issue that caused him to experience pain in his wrist starting last August. It was estimated that he would miss at least the first month of the season. He began his rehab assignment on April 22, making his first start with Triple-A Nashville.

Unfortunately, he looks like a work in progress. He failed to get out of the first inning that day, recording just two outs, and gave up four earned runs, three walks, and a hit by pitch. He made his second start on April 26, and while it was a step in the right direction, he’s not close to where he needs to be, pitching 2 ⅓ scoreless innings with three walks and just two strikeouts.

The most glaring concern is his velocity. Priester has never been a power pitcher, by any means, but both his sinker and his cutter have consistently sat between 92 and 93 mph over his career. In his first start, he averaged just 91.2 mph on his sinker and 88.9 mph on his cutter. In his second start, he only managed to top out at 92 mph. 

To be fair, this isn’t totally unexpected, given how little time he has had to ramp up. In addition to the injury, he still has to build up his arm normally because he missed all of spring training. He’s slowly working on building his pitch count and finding the zone, something he has struggled with immensely in Nashville so far.

But it also means that he’s quite a ways away from returning to big-league action. It’s not a fatal flaw, but Milwaukee would love to have more starters capable of pitching more than four to five innings per start, reducing the load on their already overburdened bullpen. For Priester to be worth a roster spot at this time, he needs to be capable of getting through at least five innings. 

Aside from having to restore his stamina, his control has deteriorated considerably. Of the 74 pitches he has thrown for the Sounds, just 30 have been for strikes. Conceding free passes is the obvious downside of missing the zone, but getting behind in counts also leads to more hitter-friendly pitches and more damage. Pitchers with elite velocity can get away with this by simply blowing down the doors of opposing hitters, but Priester’s profile simply doesn’t fit the bill for that to work.

For the time being, it doesn’t seem like there’s a huge rush for him to return. The Brewers are willing to be patient as he works his way back. Pat Murphy said as much when stating that Priester will likely need more than the original target of three rehab outings.

Quote

"Like I said to you last time, I think it’s going to be a while. You’ve got to have a whole spring training. There’s no sense rushing it. It's always about the player first, his well being. I don’t mean that we should always be conservative, by any stretch, but it’s what’s best for a player."

Luckily for the Brewers, the rotation has held its own in Priester’s absence Some of the younger arms, like Kyle Harrison, have already shown flashes of their incredible upside.

A possible silver lining to this delay is that it should give Milwaukee more data to decide whose spot in the rotation will be taken over by Priester when he’s finally back to full strength. Currently, it seems like Brandon Sproat, a young arm with options remaining and a few underwhelming outings this season, is the favorite to cede his place, but he’s not the only candidate. Chad Patrick is another pitcher who could be headed in the wrong direction this season. His 2.35 ERA over 23 innings looks great, but his 4.34 FIP and 11.7% strikeout rate are warning signs of an upcoming downturn. We got a glimpse of what might be to come in his most recent start against the Tigers, in which he gave up four earned runs and a walk with just two strikeouts. 

There’s still plenty of baseball left to be played this year, and the Brewers are doing what they do best: staying patient, taking their time, and laying the groundwork to be successful. They’ve consistently treated the season as a marathon, not a sprint, and it’s still early in the race. Whether Priester joins them in one mile or 10, what matters is that when he does make his return, it’ll only be when he’s fully ready to give his best. By then, odds are that the team will have a place waiting for him—though it's more likely to be created by another injury than by shoving aside a healthy hurler.