The Savvy Swing Switch That Turned Jackson’s June Jolly

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Jackson Chourio still has quite a few kinks to iron out in his approach. At just twenty years old, the general expectation was that his development was incomplete but would benefit from major league reps. So far, that belief has proven to be pretty spot on. His .231/.277/.358 slash line for this year isn’t anything to write home about, and he’s the worst-qualified hitter on the team by OPS+ (77, where 100 is average). 

But something has started to “brew,” one might say, as his offensive output in June took a big step forward. After a .608 OPS in April/March and a .542 OPS in May, he’s been able to put together a .840 OPS in June over 69 plate appearances. His slash line for the month of .302/.348/.492 is a massive improvement, but how did he get there?

His biggest challenge since getting called up has been hitting big-league fastballs. He’s averaging just .196 against four-seamers with a 32.3% strikeout rate, poor numbers against the most popular pitch in baseball. In June, however, his average has shot up to a whopping .353 with a lower 20.0% strikeout rate and a 15.0% walk rate. What seems to be a major reason behind this change in performance is his higher swing rate at pitches in the zone.

Here is his swing rate at four-seam fastballs from the start of the season to May 31. As you can see, he swings at most high strikes, but he loses a lot of opportunities in the middle and lower thirds of the strike zone. This matches up with his batting average heat map against those same pitches.

If we adjust the date range for these same two graphics to contain data only for June, we see that Chourio has turned up the aggression, taking more advantage of those juicy chances in the middle of the zone. He’s still having some issues with low fastballs, but overall, swinging more to put the ball in play has benefited him against heaters.

In addition to swinging and making more contact, he’s making better quality contact. In the first two months of the season, Chourio had a line drive rate of just 17.4%; in June, it shot up to 46.2%. This makes sense, given that he hasn’t been hitting for much power but has been placing it where he needs to to get on base and move runners along.

In addition to his improved hitting against the four-seam fastball, Chourio’s greatest prospect tool, his speed, has come in handy more than a handful of times. Not only has it aided his defense, but it’s also paid dividends at the plate. 

Against the Angels on June 18th, he hit a ball down the right-field line for what should’ve been, at most, a standard double. However, as if somehow suffering from a controller disconnection, Jo Adell kicked the ball deeper into the right field corner, allowing Chourio to stretch a batted ball with an 82.4 mph exit velocity and -5 degree launch angle into an apparent home run (ruled a double/error by the official scorer). This created three runs for the Brewers.

Against the Rangers on June 26, he turned a soft blooper into an inside-the-park home run after the ball got past the glove of center-fielder Derek Hill.

Now, if I had a nickel for every time Jackson Chourio hit a little league home run this month, I'd have two nickels, which isn't a lot, but weirdly, it happened twice.

Could these two events have inflated his OPS numbers for the month? Maybe, but 1) it doesn’t change the fact that he’s still hitting for a higher average in general, and 2) utilizing his speed to stretch singles into doubles and outfield errors into home runs is a totally fair way to play baseball. 

Speedsters like Elly De La Cruz and Bobby Witt Jr. are known to use their speed to their advantage when running the bases, even when they aren’t stealing, so why can’t Chourio? As a guy with 96th percentile sprint speed, it’s a great tool to supplement a potential lack of power, at least for now.

If he can continue this trend of adapting to major-league pitching and making necessary adjustments to get ahead of the curve (see what I did there), the sky’s the limit for the young outfield phenom. His defense and baserunning are already way above average; now it’s time to see what he can do with that big ol’ bat of his.