Jake Bauers is Tip-Toeing and Toe-Tapping His Way to Success

Some Brewers fans balked when the team traded Jace Avina and Brian Sanchez for Jake Bauers last November. Many close watchers of the farm system predicted Avina would have a breakout season, while Bauers had some flashy underlying metrics but no real substance to back it up. Very rarely does a player with over 1,200 at-bats in the majors get better overnight, but the Milwaukee front office bet on being able to do just that, after the Yankees worked to change Bauers's bat path to tap into more power in 2023.

Upon joining the Brewers, Bauers's negatives were more obvious than his positives, with extreme swing-and-miss tendencies preventing him from getting the most out of what was usually solid contact--when he did manage to impact the ball. Twenty strikeouts in 57 plate appearances in April didn’t look pretty, and by his own admission, he just wasn’t on time, given how in and out of the lineup he was. Then came the change.

Why Does A Toe Tap Suit Jake Bauers?
Using a toe tap over a big leg kick to start the swing usually results in less forward momentum through your body as you impact the baseball, but it also reduces some of the variables that can go wrong when the timing is off. For Bauers, who has terrific raw power and leads the Brewers in bat speed, it may seem like a simple adjustment. However, by his own admission, having inconsistent playing time made it tough to maintain the timing necessary to make consistent contact with the leg kick. The toe tap gives him greater variability.

That’s no slight on Pat Murphy, who gave Bauers ample opportunity in the first month despite poor results. In fact, having been forced into this change might be a blessing for Bauers. The toe tap allows him to rely on his natural timing and eye at the plate, rather than using a big windup that compromises his balance. 

Recent results have helped, but as Jack Stern pointed out, Bauers is fourth in the league in expected wOBA. This takes into account the quality and consistency of batted-ball contact while eliminating the strikeouts, showing that when Bauers does connect, the effects are quite destructive. He also leads the league in “launch angle sweet spot” rate, so when you put that power and the regular elevation together, you have a dangerous hitter--that is, when he makes contact.

The Effects of the Tap
Bauers may have always had a good eye at the plate, but his lack of timing has prevented him from using it. Alternatively, perhaps the big leg kick meant having to identify pitches earlier, but that constraint forced him to hone his eye at the plate. Either way, since going to a more simple pre-swing motion, the results have been astounding.

As you can see, Bauers not only whiffed a lot inside the zone, but was chasing excessively, which exacerbated the issue. Since going to his toe tap, he’s shown a keen eye at the plate. He's chased just two out of the last 37 pitches outside the strike zone, a superb demonstration of plate discipline. In doing so, he's forced pitchers into the strike zone more often, and Bauers has pounced. Waiting on a pitch he can make contact with more often and achieving more hitter-friendly counts is a strong cocktail for success.

On top of this, Bauers has found one other benefit so far. Early in the season, he was getting under a lot of pitches that he should have found very hittable. He was reaching the outfield, but with far too much elevation to do any real damage. Ideal launch angles are between 10° and 30°, but Bauers was hitting it over 50° too often. In the last week, he hasn’t hit a single ground ball but has found a ton of line drives:

Rates like this won’t necessarily last. There will be some regression here, as there will be with the chase rates. That being said, if he can remain elite in both categories, then Bauers may be the type of first baseman who can carry an offense, with elite defense to boot.

The final points to mention for Bauers are his contact rates and his aggressiveness within the strike zone. Some hitters, when they stop chasing, also find themselves taking a lot of called strikes, but that’s not been the case with Bauers in the last week. His swing decisions and contact metrics have improved considerably in the following stats:

• Whiff rate - 32.8% to 21.6%
• Called strike rate - 37.5% to 27.5%
• Chase rate - 26.1% to 5.4%
• Strikeout rate - 39.7% to 21.1%
• Avg exit velocity - 89.9 mph to 96.7 mph

Some of this is, undeniably, the result of capitalizing on his chances, but it’s important to note that these results have come against some quality pitchers, including Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Brady Singer--all of whom are off to excellent starts this year. The league may adjust, but he’s crushed breaking pitches, offspeed stuff and fastballs alike during this stretch. There will be some regression, but Bauers may be the devastating bat that the Brewers could really use, with Rhys Hoskins's hamstring injury. Perhaps the moral of the story is that we should really stop questioning the Brewers front office since Matt Arnold took over.

Do you think this is as sustainable as the underlying numbers suggest? Or is this just another flash in the pan for the Brewers at first base? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.