Joey Ortiz Needs to Be in the Top Half of the Brewers' Lineup

As always, with lineup construction discourse, many people think batting order doesn’t matter--that it's a pointless argument. I generally disagree, and believe there are mental and “skill diversity” aspects that have an impact. Thus, the Milwaukee Brewers need to give Joey Ortiz a serious run in the top half of the lineup, to stabilize the recently inconsistent offense and to see if his brand of tenacious competitiveness could make the difference in the postseason.

Whether looking at full-season stats or just the past month, Ortiz has better numbers than some who have had more opportunities in the top five slots in recent weeks. While power still fuels run-scoring, getting on base for better hitters and working a pitcher into deeper counts has great value. Many probably forget how good Ortiz was early in the season, before he suffered a neck injury that first hampered his performance, then landed him on the IL. Over his first 40 games, Ortiz slashed .293/.387/.538. He wasn't going to stay at that MVP level, but even with some struggles, he is still among the team's best hitters. His placement in the lineup doesn't reflect that.

Among active Brewers this season with at least 60 plate appearances, Ortiz ranks second in OBP (.341), trailing only William Contreras. He also sits fifth on the team in OPS (.739), ahead of Rhys Hoskins, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins, Brice Turang and Sal Frelick. That list alone should make you tilt your head in wonder, as to how Ortiz hasn’t found his way closer to the top of the order.

2-run double from Joey Ortiz gives the Brewers back the lead!

📺: FS1 pic.twitter.com/m2NmOt8KhK

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 22, 2024

Additionally, Ortiz shows the plate discipline teams should cherish near the front of the lineup. His 12.3% walk percentage (BB%) is second on the team, to playing time-limited Andruw Monasterio. Meanwhile, Ortiz’s 19.5% strikeout percentage (K%) is third-lowest on the Brewers, behind Turang and Frelick. From that perspective, if the argument is Ortiz versus Turang or Frelick, do you value more walks and more strikeouts or fewer of each? But one thing is certain: Mitchell’s 32.1 K% has no business in the top half of the lineup, as the Brewers have tried a few times in August.

Even turning your attention away from an on-base and plate discipline focus, Ortiz’s other stats outpace many. Among Milwaukee hitters, Ortiz is fifth in both wRC+ (108) and wOBA (.325), as well as sixth in SLG (.398) and extra-base hit percentage (7.8%). All of these numbers show Ortiz is likely the fourth-best hitter on the Brewers, following Willy Adames, Jackson Chourio and Contreras.

But let’s look at more recent production, too. Since Aug. 10, Milwaukee has averaged just four runs per game. That is 0.81 runs per game fewer than their season average, and would rank the Brewers 24th in MLB if they did it over the entire year. So, in the last 17 contests, Milwaukee has had its struggles to consistently put up runs, especially compared to what they have done for much of 2024.

Some of the issues stem from various hitters’ poor performances in August:



As you can see, though, while Ortiz’s production isn’t jumping off the page, his numbers are still better in most areas than others who have (or could) hit in front of him. The more concerning story might be Turang’s troubles–both recently, as seen above, and over the course of the season, wherein his .318 OBP ranks ninth on the Brewers and his .677 OPS sits 10th.

But back to Ortiz. His value as a hitter goes beyond the numbers. He does what it takes to help the team win games, whether fighting off an inside pitch to the right side to move over a runner; finding a way to hit a sac fly with two strikes; or coming up with a big hit late in the game. Ortiz is always willing to put forth a “team at-bat,” where he is determined to do a job. He is far more likely to execute a hit-and-run or deliver an RBI with a runner on third and less than two outs, particularly over guys like Mitchell, Bauers or Frelick. He's avoided double plays better than Turang or Jackson Chourio. He's driven in a higher percentage of the runners on base when he comes up than Adames or Rhys Hoskins.

In modern baseball, teams often overlook the importance of such strategic pieces. Yes, home runs are the key to winning in the playoffs, but baseball has been shifting the past couple of seasons, and it has room for players who are “gamers,” doing the dirty work and grinding out an October victory.

With his skill set and the makeup of what should be the other four hitters in the top half of the lineup, Ortiz would make an intriguing third hitter for the Brewers. He could hold down the leadoff spot, or manage to produce in other spots, but the three-hole likely allows him to utilize all of his tools of plate discipline, bat control, bunting and creating runs.

Should Murphy and company want to keep giving Turang a shot at leadoff against righties, it makes the lineup easy at the top:

1.  Turang
2. Chourio
3. Ortiz
4. Contreras
5. Adames

Against left-handed pitchers, Turang should be gone, and Gary Sánchez needs to get additional looks. Reader’s choice on the one-two slots, but the likeliest look is this:

1. Chourio
2. Contreras
3. Ortiz
4. Sánchez
5. Adames

I couldn’t care less about all the right-left matchup stuff, especially with your first five hitters, who should simply be your best options to score early and often. Of course, it seems like Murphy does care, but maybe continued performance trends will force him to abandon his commitment to alternating by handedness.

This all adds up to say that it is time to give Ortiz some opportunities higher in the lineup. How many chances can you give Tyler Black (now in Triple-A), Mitchell and Bauers before Ortiz gets a shot at proving he can be a more consistent, reliable, competitive hitter who pushes the offense up a level?