Joey Ortiz's Plate Discipline Needs More Refinement

Throughout the early months of the regular season, an unlikely member of the Brewers' lineup absorbed Pat Murphy's ire over his swing decisions. Before Jackson Chourio's post-May explosion, Joey Ortiz was the hot-hitting rookie establishing himself as a major contributor to an improved offense. He slashed .275/.380/.455 (135 wRC+) through June, and that production was naturally a popular discussion topic in Murphy's pregame media availability.

While Murphy credited Ortiz for establishing himself as a bona fide big-leaguer, however, that praise was often followed by frustration over his plate discipline.

"When he swings at a breaking ball in the dirt, I want to tase him," Murphy said in May, a month in which Ortiz hit for a .978 OPS. "I don't know if that's legal, but it drives me nuts."

Based on Ortiz's surface-level plate discipline metrics, it was an odd bone to pick, both then and now. His 24.7% chase rate ranked in the 74th percentile, and his 11% walk rate was an improvement from his minor-league clip and trailed only William Contreras among qualified Brewers hitters.

A more nuanced breakdown reveals that Murphy wasn't far off base. His chase rate on pitches within the shadow zone – pitches roughly a baseball's width from the border of the strike zone – was well below the league average, but his swing rates on those in the chase and waste zones were more pedestrian. While chasing is not a real issue for Ortiz, it's easy to see how a few ugly chases by a rookie would stand out in Murphy's eye test.

At best, Ortiz's overall chase rate is misleading. At worst, his elite chase rate on borderline pitches may signal a deficiency rather than a strength. Instead of an indicator of fantastic pitch recognition, it could be a symptom of pitches locking him up or a flaw in his approach.

Watching balls outside the zone is only half the battle. Seeing the ball and making smart swing decisions also entail swinging at hittable pitches in the zone, and Ortiz was one of baseball's worst in that regard in his rookie season. The league-average swing rate on pitches in the zone was 67.9%. Ortiz's was 53.1%, the lowest among all qualified hitters.

Being a selective hitter isn't necessarily a bad thing – plenty of great hitters swing at fewer strikes than average – but Ortiz was detrimentally passive. According to Statcast, which calculates the value a hitter contributes per pitch by location, he cost the Brewers 10 runs on pitches over the heart of the plate.

Unlike most hitters with negative run values on pitches over the heart of the plate, Ortiz can hit them. He was productive when he swung but cost his team 14 runs by watching so many hittable pitches go by. Ortiz's 58.6% swing rate on pitches over the heart of the plate was also the lowest among qualified hitters.

For much of the year, Ortiz swung at a below-average but tenable percentage of pitches in the zone. Things took a turn for the worse over the season's final two months, during which Ortiz watched more strikes than he swung at. In August, he offered at just 42.8% of in-zone pitches.

These splits and trends make it trickier to assess Ortiz's ball-strike recognition, which appears to be a strength based on his overall walk and chase rates. Was he excellent at laying off borderline pitches because he identifies spin and trajectory early, or was he often fooled and left hesitant to swing? What looks at first glance like a great eye and command of the strike zone may actually be the opposite. At the very least, it became an issue late in the season, when rookies often find themselves on the point of a counterthrust in the duel of adjustments between themselves and the league.

Whether it's a sign of subpar pitch recognition or simply an unrelated hesitancy to attack hittable pitches, it's something Ortiz and the Brewers must address. To approach his ceiling, Ortiz must give himself opportunities to produce by going after pitches he can handle.

Ortiz's overly passive nature, particularly the one he exhibited down the stretch, will not cut it. Presently in line to become Milwaukee's everyday shortstop, Ortiz's excellent defense gives him a high floor as a big-league regular, but more development at the plate lies ahead than his slash line indicates. Becoming more aggressive on obvious strikes is perhaps the greatest hurdle he must clear.