Junkball Blues: Third Rotation Check In

As I wrote yesterday, the Brewers are in the middle of a rough stretch, and one of the most difficult aspects has been their starting pitching performance. While the team has faced injuries in general, it's difficult not to focus especially on the harm that losing early success story Wade Miley caused to the rotation, as well as the disappearance of Eric Lauer; the continued injury list seat for Brandon Woodruff; and the lack of use for Janson Junk (who the biggest boosters of the Hunter Renfroe trade claimed was a key rotation depth improvement for a weak rotation in 2022). 

Of course, as frustrating as the injuries and middling performances have been, the rotation took a turn last month. Thanks in large part to quality depth performances, this rotation could sustain a .500 ballclub for the time being. 

ICYMI: Junkball Blues 1

ICYMI: Junkball Blues 2

The pitching rotation is receiving quite laudable performances from their depth starters, such as Adrian Houser and Colin Rea. New entry Julio Teheran is stealing the scene with four crucial replacement starts. Teheran climbed the ladder from true replacement starter (1 game started immediately upon signing day) to a near-depth role on the club (he's already got twice as many games started as Brandon Woodruff!). 

If you truly want to know how the 2023 Brewers season is going, you can check out the last month of the main core rotation, which went 84.3 innings and -7 runs prevented (basically, seven runs below average) over 15 starts. Prorating this workload for an entire season, this rotation core would be nearly 40 runs below average (turning a .500 team into a 77-to-78-win club). It's difficult to watch the previous strength of recent Brewers clubs vanish completely. 

However, it is hardly fair to group the full rotation core together since the last update (roughly one month of work). The group split 40.3 and -15 runs prevented for the trio of Miley / Peralta / Lauer but also received 44 IP and eight runs prevented for Corbin Burnes. Burnes saved the rotation over the last month and is slowly returning to form in terms of consistent quality results. 

• Wade Miley: THEN: 4 runs prevented (7 GS / 40.0 IP) / NOW: 4 runs prevented (8 GS / 41.7 IP)
• Freddy Peralta: THEN: 5 runs prevented (7 GS / 40.7 IP) / NOW: -7 runs prevented (13 GS / 70.3 IP)
• Eric Lauer: THEN: -6 runs prevented (7 GS / 34.3 IP) / NOW: -9 runs prevented (9 G / 42.7 IP)
• Corbin Burnes: THEN: -1 runs prevented (7 GS / 39.7 IP) / NOW: 7 runs prevented (14 GS / 83.7 IP)

Meanwhile, what was previously known as the periphery of the rotation worked 16 games started over the same period (84.7 IP and eight runs prevented). The depth guys matched the workload of the main starters and trounced them in terms of performance. It's not just Teheran; Houser and Rea have done nice jobs in in-depth roles. 

• NEW ENTRY!!! Julio Teheran: 7 runs prevented (4 GS / 24.3 IP)
• Colin Rea: THEN:  -1 runs prevented (5 GS / 27.3 IP) / NOW: -0 runs prevented (12 G / 57.3 IP)
• Adrian Houser: THEN: +0 runs prevented (1 GS / 4.7 IP) / NOW: +0 runs prevented (7 GS / 35.3 IP)
• NO CHANGE Brandon Woodruff: 4 runs prevented (2 GS / 11.3 IP)
• NO CHANGE Janson Junk: -3 runs prevented (1 GS / 4.7 IP)

All told, the Brewers rotation has worked just about average innings over the last month, which is one of the reasons the club has been playing so many close games. Now that Corbin Burnes has turned a corner, it remains to be seen if Freddy Peralta can readjust. For as much as both pitchers have had crucial sequences of strength for the rotation, it is difficult to see this Brewers team sustaining a competitive status if both Peralta and Burnes are seesawing good and bad performances with one another.