Make-or-Break Players on the 2025 Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick

What Went Wrong in 2024?
After 747 major-league plate appearances, I think we have enough data to describe Sal Frelick fairly accurately—with numbers to back it up. Defensively, he’s stellar. He won a Gold Glove for his efforts in the outfield last season, accumulating a combined 15 Defensive Runs Saved across all three outfield positions. He spent most of his time in right field, where he found the most success, but he was also an above-average center fielder. With very good speed, he has an exceptional ability to cover long distances and chase down even the farthest-hit fly balls. Sometimes, he even goes a bit over the wall for them.

Offensively, it’s a different story. As a rookie, he was known more for his glove than his bat, but he still managed a 90 OPS+. With a starting spot in the lineup over a full season, his offensive numbers got a little worse, falling to an 83 OPS+. The most glaring weakness in his hitting is his lack of pop. He placed in the 1st percentile of qualified hitters for average exit velocity (83.4 mph), barrel rate (0.8%), and hard-hit rate (19.5%). This culminated in just two home runs last year, and an ISO of just .076—less than half the league-average ISO of .161. To make matters even worse, his low average launch angle of 9.7 degrees further limits his ability to go for extra bases.

But it goes even deeper than that. Thanks to bat-tracking data that was introduced to Statcast, we can get a closer look as to whether a player is truly getting all that he can out of his swing. The two figures that are now measured on Baseball Savant are swing speed and squared-up rate. The former is pretty straightforward, but the latter measures something far more helpful. Statcast defines squared-up rate as:

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A swing’s squared-up rate tells us how much of the highest possible exit velocity available (based on the physics related to the swing speed and pitch speed). A player's squared-up rate is the percentage of their swings on which they achieve at least 80% of that maximum possible exit velocity.a batter was able to obtain.

Sal Frelick has 3rd-percentile bat speed, but a 92nd-percentile squared-up rate, meaning he’s actually getting all that he can out of his current swing. With a relatively small 5-foot-8, 185-pound frame, he might just not have the natural oomph of his bigger compatriots. 

What Can Go Right in 2025?
The great thing about baseball is that there isn’t just one way to play the game. Sure, big guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton can get balls out of the park at 110 mph no problem, but smaller guys like Jose Altuve and Donovan Solano have found ways to stick around by playing to their strengths. Frelick’s strength is his bat-to-ball skills. His whiff rate of just 12.9% and his strikeout rate of 14.9% place him among the game’s best contact kings. Interestingly, his chase rate of 25.8% isn’t as exceptional, but it’s definitely better than average.

To me, the ideal player for Frelick to strive toward would be Steven Kwan. Both Frelick and Kwan are outstanding outfielders who have smaller frames, with limited natural power. Here is how their key offensive numbers stack up: