Milwaukee Brewers Hope Oliver Dunn's Selectivity Will Translate to the Big Leagues

Oliver Dunn made an impression on Pat Murphy in spring training. Now, he’s getting an opportunity to impact a big-league roster for the first time in his career.

Dunn was initially slated to begin the season with Triple-A Nashville, but the Brewers added him to the active roster after Garrett Mitchell fractured his hand in the final week of spring training.

Mitchell’s absence moved Sal Frelick back to center field (more or less) full-time, and created a need for another left-handed hitter on the roster--ideally an infielder. Enter Dunn, whom the Brewers acquired via trade in November after he raked for the Philadelphia Phillies’ Double-A affiliate in 2023.

The 26-year-old launched 21 home runs and posted an excellent .271/.396/.506 line (148 wRC+). He continued that strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .343/.455/.616 in 88 plate appearances.

Dunn has played second base most often in the minor leagues, but Murphy said a few weeks ago he expects most of his action with the Brewers will be at third. He explained that Dunn feels most comfortable there.

He looked at home at the hot corner in spring training, showing solid range and footwork with several charging plays on soft ground balls down the line. Scouts have expressed concerns about whether Dunn’s arm is strong enough to play at third, though, and Jake Bauers bailed him out with scoops at first base on a couple of those plays.

If Dunn impacts the Brewers this year, it will be primarily with his bat. He injects raw power into an offense that was among the worst in that area last year. He also excels at getting on base, drawing walks at a 16.2% clip.

As a three-true-outcomes hitter, the greatest drawback in Dunn’s profile is his high strikeout rate. He punched out at an alarming 27.5% rate last season.

That figure could increase when he faces higher-caliber pitching. However, Dunn’s swing-and-miss tendencies may be closer to palatable than out of control. His whiff rate was a couple of percentage points higher than the Double-A average, but his 12% swinging strike rate was right in line with the league average of 12.9%.

Many of Dunn’s strikeouts were due to his selectiveness at the plate, rather than swings and misses. Hitters must be passive on borderline pitches to walk as often as he does, but that approach is a double-edged blade that can also result in more looking strikeouts.

Dunn was far more likely to take strike three than the average Double-A hitter. His 19.2% called strike rate with two strikes far exceeded the league average of 11.7%. If Dunn thinks a pitch is just outside the zone with two strikes, he won’t try to spoil it. He’ll take it.

Murphy doesn’t want Dunn to change his selective approach in an effort to reduce his looking strikeouts.

“Hitters that have that great strike-ball discernment, hitters that are great at that, they punch out,” he explained. “They punch out because they take a pitch they believe is a ball and gets called a strike. That happens. He’s really good at it, so that’s going to be something that we have to live with.”

Dunn’s excellent feel for the strike zone is a key part of his game. Murphy would rather live with the occasional drawbacks of that approach than try to change his identity as a hitter.

“When it’s close, it’s hard to deny him that right of, ‘I make my own decisions about that.’ To force him to swing at [borderline pitches] could change his whole game.”

Dunn will confront an adjustment period as he transitions from facing pitchers much younger than him in the minor leagues to some of the best pitchers in the world. Opponents will attack him differently at this level, and it could require him to alter some of his swing decisions.

At the same time, the higher level of competition could work in Dunn’s favor. Borderline pitches he took for strike three in Double-A may be correctly called balls by big-league umpires with tighter and more accurate zones.

Regardless, expect Dunn to stick with the approach that got him here: spit on borderline pitches and strike on ones over the heart of the plate. The Brewers have faith in Dunn’s profile. He has an opportunity to prove that it can lead him to success in the big leagues.