Nine Stat Blasts to Help Explain Brewers' Great Start

Willy Adames

The most popular criticism of Adames coming into the season was how little he walked, with his approach favoring happy-go-lucky over cautious calculation. However, so far this season, he’s in the 84th percentile with a walk rate of 14 percent. Adames talked on Tuesday about how he wanted to improve in this area, setting himself a target of 70 walks this season (his previous high was 57). He hasn’t quite found his timing with the bat as of yet, so his quality of contact is down, but we know when Willy gets hot, he can carry this offense.

Christian Yelich’s Underlying Metrics

So far, Yelich has posted a mere .247/.326/.388 slash line, resulting in a .714 OPS. However, he’s currently in the 96th percentile for hard hit balls, with 57% of his balls in play over 95 mph. His expected batting average, based on his contact rate and the speed and trajectory of his batted balls, is .274, and he has hit into some bad luck so far this season with some roped line drives. We all want to see Yelich pull the ball in the air more, but given his inconsistent patches so far, there is a feel that he’s tinkering with his swing, and as such, that he can manage a more consistent performance in the latter half of the season. 

William Contreras Catching Barrels and Strikes

Contreras has missed just 10 pitches in the strike zone so far this season, on top of which, in eight of the nine areas in the zone he has an average exit velocity around or above 90 mph. The only area he’s really struggled is the slider down and away, with six of his 12 strikeouts low and away, but he has shown himself to be a far more adept bat-to-ball hitter than we expected.

He’s also in the 77th percentile for framing metrics, a huge improvement on last season, and something of which the Brewers’ coaching crew can be proud. It’s important to note that Contreras' work ethic and dedication likely played a big part in this turnaround too, as well as his athleticism.

Hoby Milner

Milner is in the lowest percentiles of both fastball velocity and fastball spin rates, yet somehow he is in the 92th percentile for average exit velocity allowed, inducing on average hits of 84.3 mph. He’s given up just six hits so far this season, and none of his individual pitches have been hit hard so far, using each of his sinker, curveball and changeup to great effect. And yet….

Joel Payamps

Payamps has gone one better than Milner, with opponents managing only an 81.5 mph average exit velocity. That’s in the 98th percentile among all MLB hurlers. He struggles to generate many whiffs and strikeouts, but he avoids barrels at a strong rate, and with the current Brewers infield, Payamps and Milner are absolutely deadly.

Our Supreme Closer

Devin Williams may be the leader of the cardiac crew, but his stats underneath it all are the sound vitals that make the occasional palpitations livable. No one has generated more whiffs per swing than Williams, with his change-up having a 50% whiff rate, and the fastball a 47% figure. He has allowed just a .063 expected batting average on his heater, due in large part to his extension off the mound, and his above-average movement both vertically and horizontally on the pitch. We’ve seen a lot of hitters so far this season sitting on his changeup, resulting in a lower chase rate than Williams is used to, but he’s taking advantage of this and peppering the zone with his fastball. He has the lowest xBA, the second-lowest xSlg and the best strikeout rate in the major leagues. He also seems to have ice in his veins, but I can’t find any stats to back that up.

Wade Miley

If you asked anyone what the best you could hope for from Miley coming into the season it’s probably along the lines of “limit hard contact and hope for the best”. Well, Miley has come through and more, with a 71st-percentile hard-hit rate allowed, while also being stingy with walks (85th percentile). On top of that, he’s nipping in and around the shadow area of the zone so much that he’s forced one of the better chase rates in the Brewers pitching corps, with his slider generating a 42.9% whiff rate.

Team Defense

Per Fielding Bible, the team’s defense so far has saved 25 runs, eight ahead of the second-placed Diamondbacks. The outfield alone has 10 Defensive Runs Saved, and has contributed much to the improved consistency of the Brewers’ performance this season. The Garrett Mitchell absence could be felt heavily, but Joey Wiemer is a strong defender in his own right.

Sal Frelick

Frelick hasn’t had the ideal start to the season, struggling to avoid weak contact in his current slump, although he did break out slightly with a three-hit game before his thumb injury yesterday. However, he has just a 12.4% whiff rate, and swings at pitches outside the zone just 14% of the time so far, so even in his slump, he’s a really tough at-bat for opposing pitchers. No doubt, we’ll see the consistent hard contact return at some point this season to add to his sublime contact skills.