Not So Wild Now: William Contreras's Worst-to-First Transformation in Throwing Accuracy

Over the winter, I wrote about the fact that William Contreras was (at least by the best available metric we have, via Statcast) the least accurate thrower from behind the plate on steal attempts in 2024. It was a major problem, costing him any chance to be an above-average stopper of the running game. He showed the ability to get rid of the ball quickly and the ability to throw it harder than most of his peers, but the ball was rarely on the mark, the way it really needs to be if one wants to cut down would-be basestealers under the rules that went into effect in 2023.

One problem is that, while nominally posting good Exchange times (that is, getting rid of the ball exceptionally quickly after the pitch reached him), Contreras was only doing so by rushing. He was, far too often, either throwing from a bad body position or not taking the extra infinitesimal portion of a second required to get a sure grip and fire the ball with some control of its trajectory.

This season, he's made the minuscule adjustment—and it's paid off handsomely. By being willing to cut it loose a hair slower, Contreras has boosted his own arm strength, a rare feat for a catcher even this far into a big-league career.

As you can see, when Contreras joined the Brewers in 2023, they were immediately able to clean up that exchange, speeding it up from what he was doing when he played for the team from unincorporated Cobb County, Ga., and he also gained a tick of raw arm strength with that cleanup. He was going faster (both mentally and physically) than he could really handle, though, and it showed, especially last year. This offseason and during spring training, he gave back a sliver of time getting rid of the ball, but gained another tick of arm strength in the trade.

Of course, as you can see from that rightmost column, the gained arm strength has been washed out by the lost exchange speed, when it comes to pop time. He's not delivering the ball to second base any faster, from the instant at which he gets the pitch, than he has in the past. So what has changed?

This.

I'm willing to have a debate on this, but it's my earnest opinion that the most aesthetically pleasing thing in baseball is a strong, flat throw to this spot: knee-high, just to the first-base side of second base, taking the infielder receiving the ball right into the helpless sliding runner. There are guys who can locate the ball here more consistently (new Cubs backstop Carson Kelly has a particular knack for it), but few of them can do it with real mustard on the ball. Contreras has plenty of arm strength, but discovering that a bit more care and coordination in getting rid of the ball can yield this lethal combo of velocity and accuracy is exhilarating.

Look at his footwork on that one. It's breathtakingly good; he's clearly worked on the timing of receiving the ball and emerging from the crouch fluidly. The above is also a great example of a little secret about the craft of controlling the running game: Contrary to conventional wisdom, a slider can sometimes be the best pitch to throw on. It has to be a slider strike, of course, because you don't want to be picking the ball out of the dirt, but see the way his body begins moving in concert with the ball before it even arrives? As a hitter, the slider is a pain, but that's because you don't know it's coming. When you do, and when a pitcher executes it well, the pitch gives a catcher time to get moving, and it's ready to read out of your hurler's hand. 

Anyway, let's watch one more. Notice where the pitch is located on this one.

At almost exactly this time last year, I wrote about Contreras's throwing, and noted that he really only had success when he got a pitch on the first-base edge of the plate on which to throw. That helped him get into good mechanics. If the ball was anywhere from the middle of the plate to the right-handed batter's box, you could count on him getting off an awkward or inaccurate throw. That makes the above the most important clip in the trio we've looked at, and the most telling about his adjustments this year.

Here is where we can most clearly see the benefits of taking his time. Contreras doesn't try to throw this from a knee or rush the ball out as fast as possible. He receives the pitch, gets his footwork right, and lets the extra counterrotation the play requires of him create some extra oomph on the throw. It's low, in the end, but not badly low. It requires Brice Turang to help him out with a good pick, but that's fine. Stopping the running game is, unavoidably, a team effort. He took a tough pitch to throw on, got off an absolute laser, and left his infielder with the ball right at the spot where the runner was arriving.

Contreras leads the majors with 2 net Caught Stealings Above Average (CSAA) based on his accuracy this year. That sounds like small potatoes, and in a way, it is: His -3 was the worst in baseball last year. This is a skill that tends to come close to evening out for most catchers over the course of the season. It's like measuring the vertical movement on a pitcher's fastball: it matters, but you'll miss the forest if you only gaze at this tree.

On the other hand, the pace Contreras is on is awfully impressive, and there's a noteworthy difference between being a few outs above average and a few outs below, especially given that each out you can generate might deter a runner or two in the future. He's also the only catcher with a net 4 CSAA, thanks in no small part to the improved accuracy. It's a part of his overall surge to the top of the leaderboard.

Furthermore, this is a lens through which to see his attention to detail and his hunger to be great. No one is going to accuse him of laxity, anyway, but there's an exciting maturity in bringing oneself under control enough to get fully in touch with one's tools. That seems to be what's happening early this year, and it's further evidence that Contreras is a superstar with staying power.